$139 a barrel!

[HOZ]

Geez....I think I am going to find that "Open letter to biker" thread and join the bikers.

Dear Drivers,

That is no longer a feul guage.....it is the level of you bank account!


Your Truly,

New Biker

[Azure]

So who invested money into the oil market when it was still at $90 bucks a barrel?

[Ford Prefect]

Originally Posted by Azure

So who invested money into the oil market when it was still at $90 bucks a barrel?

I dropped all of my other stocks and put everything into EnCana and CNRL back in January. About a month ago I sold off a few thousand dollars worth of my profits and put them into wind and solar stocks, which have also done quite well for me so far. I still have over 3/4s of my EnCana and CNRL stocks though and don't intend to take any more profits just yet. If/when oil goes over $150/barrel I might get a bit of a twitchy trigger finger though ... which will be about Tuesday 10:00 a.m. at the rate things are going.

I think this is the first time I timed a ride just right, except for WestJet. I've timed WestJet just right a couple times too. Usually I'm a least a few degrees out of synch on these trends, so it's nice to connect on one for a change.

[Slava]

^ At what point are you getting out?

[Ford Prefect]

Originally Posted by Slava

^ At what point are you getting out?

As mentioned ... $150/barrel will make give me a pretty twitchy trigger finger. I'm already getting close to doubling my money (bought in the $65/share neighbourhood), so I'm already getting kind of twitchy. But is it going higher than $150 since the summer is only starting? Should I wait until late July? Or is this week's spike the peak? Those are the questions that could cost me money by leading me to being too greedy. What do you think?

[Slava]

Well I have a very different investment style than most of the people who seem to post here. I am always curious to know how others view this though. Frankly, when I see the cover of the hearld today though it makes me think that its time to sell, or at least sooner rather than later.

These things always end...badly. We all know it can't go up forever.

[Azure]

I think its a bubble that will eventually burst. Question is when.

$140 bucks a barrel? $150? Never know.

[Frequitude]

I hate speculation. People buying something solely because they think they can sell it for more tomorrow. There are no market fundamentals involved in that. A bubble for sure.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by JD

Yes, but the price of oil is only one thing that affects the pump price. A barrel of oil is sent to the refinery where it is split into several components: diesel, gasoline, kerosene, natural gas, tar, among many other consumer products.

One of the more common reasons cited for the high pump price is the fact that there aren't enough refineries to produce gasoline from the oil that is available.

The high oil price can affect the cost of other products such as plastics and the other products I mentioned, just as well as it does gasoline.

yep the chems industry in the US gulf is getting slaughtered right now.

Crude price is bar far and away the largest component in the cost of gasoline. As for refining capacity, that generally isn't an issue, there is enough capacity on this continent, it's just that it needs to run, when you have a couple refineries down in the same orbit (ie if 2 refineries were down in Edm) then you see 'refining problems'. There hasn't been a refinery built on the continent for 20 years because the capacity is there.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by LouCypher

My only explanation is greed and power, while there are many other factors that may play into this it comes right down to human beings taking advantage of other human beings for a resource we've been forced to depend upon. If the whole world could look at it in simpler terms there would be much more effort put into alternatives that would benefit everyone as a whole. Of course there are many who do not want things equal but thats life and how I see it.

simple little world then. Do you think that maybe it has just a little bit to do with the industrialization of 1.5B people in China and India? Maybe a little to do with the fact that it is quoted in a currency that has dropped in value considerably in the last 3 years? Or maybe something to do with the cost of recovery of oil is going up sharply?

It's not a simple problem, there are hundreds of factors, if you keep your eyes closed and say it's the mean oil people screwin everyone one that may keep things nice and neat for you, but you turn your back to a large complex reality out there.

[Slava]

The most frustrating thing about the oil industry to me is how they can spend so much of their time figuring out the reserves and supply, and still manage to get it wrong week after week!

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by Slava

The most frustrating thing about the oil industry to me is how they can spend so much of their time figuring out the reserves and supply, and still manage to get it wrong week after week!

huh? get what wrong?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

huh? get what wrong?

Well its just amazing how one day the supply is all fine and then within a day the supply is not sufficient and the price has to increase. Just this past week reports came out that demand was down as the prices were causing a decrease in consumption. Virtually a day later there were reserve issues and the prices rose.

I recognize that there are a lot of factors here. Its just a remarkable study in man-kind that one of our most important things cannot be predicted or at least monitored with better accuracy.

[Flames in 07]

Maybe the problem is with the reporting and media outlets who are looking to fill time or space, and whether what they say is perfectly accurate or not is secondary to simply filling space?

Reserves change at a glacial pace they don't just fluctuate around like the TSE. As for short term supply it is managed very purposely by OPEC and govt run sources of supply. You are used to N American private sector going all out, but in many parts of the planet production levels are very methodical and purposely planned.

[MelBridgeman]

How is what is happening now any different than what happened in the 70's? Circumstance may be different, but eventually increase production and less demand will drop the price big time...not unlike what happened in the 80's? History does repeat itself.[/possible ignorance]

[flamesfever]

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

simple little world then. Do you think that maybe it has just a little bit to do with the industrialization of 1.5B people in China and India? Maybe a little to do with the fact that it is quoted in a currency that has dropped in value considerably in the last 3 years? Or maybe something to do with the cost of recovery of oil is going up sharply?

It's not a simple problem, there are hundreds of factors, if you keep your eyes closed and say it's the mean oil people screwin everyone one that may keep things nice and neat for you, but you turn your back to a large complex reality out there.

Right on.

I think it's a difficult if not impossible task for the oil industry to educate the public, when we can't even make many of our Alberta politicians understand the realities.

When you consider the inflation of the MC3 in the US from the 50's, oil is still cheap.

The supply/demand curve I've seen suggest that oil still has a way to go in the long run.

However, in the short run, I'm nervous about things like a slowdown due to recession, possible carbon tax, and the incredible short sightedness of politicians, both Federal and Provincial, to overtax the industry. Many of these things may not influence the oil price, but it sure as heck will affect the stocks.

I've seen many ups and downs in Calgary, and I expect something to come along someday to slow things down.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by MelBridgeman

How is what is happening now any different than what happened in the 70's? Circumstance may be different, but eventually increase production and less demand will drop the price big time...not unlike what happened in the 80's? History does repeat itself.[/possible ignorance]

that's true, however this feels different from last time in that supplies are becoming more expensive to commercialize.

The real solution is going to be alternatives, but until then conservation will play a big part. Everyone is fixated on if you drive a SUV or not, but there are more material decisions people can make such as:

How far is your daily commute? The believed birthright of a big house on a big lot in some suburb is going to become very expensive with the weekly gas bill, which is great, it will get everyone to think about moving closer to work, which is good for cities, infrastructure, culture, and conservation

How many kids do you have? everyone has the right to have as many kids as they want, but at some point the planet needs to realize that at this point there is too many people. People worry about if their car burns an extra few gallons of gasoline in a year, but decisions around kids is by far the most important impact on any individuals energy footprint. Again, not a comment on values ... just a simple cause and effect relationship.

[MelBridgeman]

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

How far is your daily commute? The believed birthright of a big house on a big lot in some suburb is going to become very expensive with the weekly gas bill, which is great, it will get everyone to think about moving closer to work, which is good for cities, infrastructure, culture, and conservation

Well you may have a higher gas bill living in your suburban mansion..but if a exodus to the inner city happens, then you will have higher housing costs in the inner city and lower housing in surburbia...its like a giant seesaw.

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

How many kids do you have? everyone has the right to have as many kids as they want, but at some point the planet needs to realize that at this point there is too many people. People worry about if their car burns an extra few gallons of gasoline in a year, but decisions around kids is by far the most important impact on any individuals energy footprint. Again, not a comment on values ... just a simple cause and effect relationship.

This is a good point. I don't have kids - biggest single reason is by my criteria it is not time. Even though most people my age may be starting to have kids. I am enjoying my career and lifestyle and added responsibility is not in the cards right now.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by MelBridgeman

How is what is happening now any different than what happened in the 70's? Circumstance may be different, but eventually increase production and less demand will drop the price big time...not unlike what happened in the 80's? History does repeat itself.[/possible ignorance]

While there is some truth to what you say, it is very different compared to the 70's. The world can't up supply nearly as easy. In the 70's, Saudi Arabia just cranked open their wellheads when needed, but they've since found that that damaged their superfields. They manage them much more carefully nowadays.

So yes, certain high risk sources are becoming more economically viable, but we can't up supply even remotely close to as easily...

[MelBridgeman]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

While there is some truth to what you say, it is very different compared to the 70's. The world can't up supply nearly as easy. In the 70's, Saudi Arabia just cranked open their wellheads when needed, but they've since found that that damaged their superfields. They manage them much more carefully nowadays.

So yes, certain high risk sources are becoming more economically viable, but we can't up supply even remotely close to as easily...

Sure, but instead of increasing supply, demand will just go down even more. There wasnt really a big fundemental change in lifestyle in the 80's..that is what is different now...lifestyles are changing to try and rely less on oil. Personally i spend less than 60 dollars on gas for my car a month. I live in an area where i can walk to most places i need to go or be. I also ditched my office and now work at home. Not everyone will be able to do that, but people who can will...and others i know now take transit instead of driving. When the cost of living is high people will cut costs, just like corporations will - all of this will help bring prices down.