Kosovo declares independence from Serbia

[Agamemnon]

Originally Posted by 4X4

So what's the big deal? Turkey just doesn't want to give up the real estate? Or is it personal? The Kurds have pissed them off so badly that they'll never forgive/recognize a state of their own? Sorta like Israel?

Is there a difference?

Yeah, the animosity levels between the Turks and Kurds could probably be compared to Israel/Palestine (imo). Turkey has been making military incursions into Turkish/Iraqi Kurdistan over the past few months.

Interesting article here connecting the Kosovo issue with the Kurdish issue. Turkey has 250,000 troops in SE Turkey and is also considering sending troops into Kurdish Iran. Of course, none of this is really helping Turkey's bid to become a member of the EU, a political/economic boon it desperately wants.

http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/de...ay&link=134264

And an article about some recent action;

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...oryId=18656437

[blankall]

Originally Posted by 4X4

So what's the big deal? Turkey just doesn't want to give up the real estate? Or is it personal? The Kurds have pissed them off so badly that they'll never forgive/recognize a state of their own? Sorta like Israel?

The Turks are worried that if the Kurds get their own state, it will inflame the seperatist movement within their own country, with whom it has fought a lengthly civil war. It's likely that Kurdish state would eventually want to claim a large part of Turkey as their own. Turkey being the largest military power in the region outside of Israel and an extremely important ally for Western states makes it extremely influential.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

I was going to post the same thing. You have the most "western" friendly muslim state in the world, who is stable and democratic and who generally wants to appease the west, and the last thing you want to do is piss them off buy forming Kurdistan when that's pretty much the only thing they've ever asked you NOT to do.

And a certain massacre. I'm sure the EU could live with one of these issues, but this is probably going to delay them for quite a while, if not indefinitely.

[4X4]

Thanks for the info.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I agree with you that it's not "stolen land" Albanians have been working the land there for generations and have made up the majority for long time, however the situation is more complicated than that.

As I mentioned earlier, Kosovo is the cradle of Serbian civilization. It was Serbia long before Albanians made up the majority. It's a slippery slope to determine at what point the ethnicity make up of a territory trumps historical, moral and legal soverignty. For example, what if in 500 years, Chinese make up 90% of Vancouver Island.... would they have a right to secede from Canada?

As you can see by my avatar, I am not unbiased in perspective of Balkan politics. I tend to sympathize with the Kosovar cause, but at the same time, Serbia has a valid argument as well. Then again, they made their bed in this situation...

Yeah, I think that's a good summary of some of the complications here... I don't think one can think too much in terms of who 'deserves' to have their own independent state or who deserves the land, but rather which solution is going to be better for the ongoing peace in the region. My main concern with Kosovo is that if at some point, support for the provisional government collapses in the UN and Kosovo is thrown into a power-void, there's a good chance of violence erupting again. Transitioning from provisional government to a independent state is good for the region. Which is the exact opposite of the Kurds: I think they're probably more deserving of an independent state than most people, but how do you make it happen in a way that doesn't start violence with Turkey and Iran?

[CrusaderPi]

Serbia recalled its ambassador from the US today.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CrusaderPi

Serbia recalled its ambassador from the US today.

And they are likely going to recall them from other countries that recognize Kosovo.

Honestly though... what does that accomplish? It probably hurts Serbia more than the U.S. as Serbia is pretty inconsequential.

Also of note, the Parti Quebecois sent a recognition letter to Kosovo. They must be drooling over the idea of declaring independence without a refurendum. They can just pamper their populace until support is over 50%, and then declare independence unilaterally. This why Canada has yet to recognize Kosovo.

[icarus]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Also of note, the Parti Quebecois sent a recognition letter to Kosovo. They must be drooling over the idea of declaring independence without a refurendum. They can just pamper their populace until support is over 50%, and then declare independence unilaterally. This why Canada has yet to recognize Kosovo.

Well this is exactly the concern I have. The Supreme Court ruled that Quebec would not be legally able to unilaterally secede under domestic and international law. Now that there is a precedent it reopens the whole book. And not just for Quebec, off the top of my head there are secessionist movements in many countries including: Russia, China, UK, Spain, Israel, Pakistan, Greece, India, Cyprus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Indonesia, Morocco, Philippines and probably a whole whack of other countries. Each instance has similarities and differences with Kosovo; the UN would have its hands full for the next ten years.

This has huge implications for the UN and international law. How would these tiny countries be able to support themselves? Kosovo has a strong ethnic identity, but lacks the resources to support itself. It is already a major portal of organised crime, trafficking humans, weapons, drugs. I am baffled as to why the EU is so supportive of Kosovo's independence. Like Lewis MacKenzie says, it is probably because they don't want the NATO intervention in 1999 to look like it was a mistake. But then again under the new Responsibility to Protect doctrine you don't need to make an excuse to justify the use of force, because the international community has recognised it is alright to do so when there is a threat of crimes against humanity, so they wouldn't have any mistakes to cover up. Which brings us to Darfur... okay I am just rambling now.

[CrusaderPi]

Same reason why China, Spain, and Greece aren't recognizing. I'm going to guess Cyprus, Moldova, Georgia, and Azerbaijan aren't high fiving each other either.

One wonders if Russia will recognize Kosovo, Abkhazia, and South Ossentia at the same time.

[icarus]

Originally Posted by CrusaderPi

One wonders if Russia will recognize Kosovo, Abkhazia, and South Ossentia at the same time.

And would that be the at same time as they allow Chechnya, Dagestan, et al. to secede?

[CrusaderPi]

Originally Posted by icarus

And would that be the at same time as they allow Chechnya, Dagestan, et al. to secede?

Dagestan and Chechnya don't have a chance. IF they press their independence they'd get absolutely crushed. Russia would trade recognize Kosovo in exchange for the wests recognition of Ossentia and Abkhazia.

Its like Chuck Norris just round house kicked geopolitics.

[icarus]

Originally Posted by CrusaderPi

Dagestan and Chechnya don't have a chance. IF they press their independence they'd get absolutely crushed.

Yes they would, but I am sure if Abkhazia and South Ossetia were to secede you'd have a trememdous amount of violence and terrorism from Chechen rebels who feel their right to secession is a lot more justified and would be protesting Russian hypocrisy. I am not sure Russia would consider it a worthwhile endeavour.

[CrusaderPi]

Russia has got a dozen-ish of these de facto independent states. The last thing they want is another round of mass declarations. I can't see them recognizing anyone either.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by icarus

Well this is exactly the concern I have. The Supreme Court ruled that Quebec would not be legally able to unilaterally secede under domestic and international law. Now that there is a precedent it reopens the whole book. And not just for Quebec, off the top of my head there are secessionist movements in many countries including: Russia, China, UK, Spain, Israel, Pakistan, Greece, India, Cyprus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Indonesia, Morocco, Philippines and probably a whole whack of other countries. Each instance has similarities and differences with Kosovo; the UN would have its hands full for the next ten years.

At the same time, it is dangerous for the PQ and separatists, as it further opens the door for any region to unilaterally secede from Quebec, and rejoin Canada if it so chooses. i.e.: the battle of wills between the PQ and native leaders in Quebec. The PQ has long operated under the theory that Canada is divisible, but Quebec is not. Well, this precedent blows that theory up too.

[Agamemnon]

This isn't the first time a new nation has been created. While there may be some precedence set here, it's not like East Timor is a whole world of difference. Plenty of new countries have been created since WWII... I wouldn't be surprised if there are 40-50% more countries in the world today than 1945. This isn't the first new country to be birthed (not even in this century).

In 1990 Namibia split off from South Africa. In 1994 Palau became independent from US Administration. Montenegro also separated from Serbia in 2006. Micronesia became independent from US administration in 1991. Macedonia & Croatia? 15 former USSR members that gained independence in the 90's.

Sure all of these are different from Kosovo, and different from each other. The point is new countries are formed and dissolved all the time, Kosovo's independence (imo) will not be the watershed dissolving 200 countries into 2000. Borders will never be 'set in stone' static... European borders may even become blurry as EU integration deepens. The world changes as time moves on.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Agamemnon

This isn't the first time a new nation has been created. While there may be some precedence set here, it's not like East Timor is a whole world of difference. Plenty of new countries have been created since WWII... I wouldn't be surprised if there are 40-50% more countries in the world today than 1945. This isn't the first new country to be birthed (not even in this century).

In 1990 Namibia split off from South Africa. In 1994 Palau became independent from US Administration. Montenegro also separated from Serbia in 2006. Micronesia became independent from US administration in 1991. Macedonia & Croatia? 15 former USSR members that gained independence in the 90's.

Sure all of these are different from Kosovo, and different from each other. The point is new countries are formed and dissolved all the time, Kosovo's independence (imo) will not be the watershed dissolving 200 countries into 2000. Borders will never be 'set in stone' static... European borders may even become blurry as EU integration deepens. The world changes as time moves on.

I'm not sure aout all the examples you listed, but the cases of the former Yugoslav Republiks were different from Kosovo. Kosovo is a province of Serbia... it has no history of ever being an independent country. Croatia, Montenegro, Macedonia, etc... were are "republiks" within a federation. They were not provinces or states. As far as international law is concerned, it is much different. Yugoslavia was like the Soviet Union, but on a smaller scale. Serbia was to Russia, what Croatia was to Ukraine. Kosovo would be like Novgorod or Rostov oblasts.

[Agamemnon]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I'm not sure aout all the examples you listed, but the cases of the former Yugoslav Republiks were different from Kosovo. Kosovo is a province of Serbia... it has no history of ever being an independent country. Croatia, Montenegro, Macedonia, etc... were are "republiks" within a federation. They were not provinces or states. As far as international law is concerned, it is much different. Yugoslavia was like the Soviet Union, but on a smaller scale. Serbia was to Russia, what Croatia was to Ukraine. Kosovo would be like Novgorod or Rostov oblasts.

All I'm saying is that the creation of new states isn't a crazy or novel concept, it happens all the time. Serbia itself was a part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire not so long ago. Every case is usually a little different... East Timor and Eritrea are similar to Kosovo, but not quite. I don't think this will set off a string of countries declaring independence though.

To declare independence a (new) country needs essentially one thing; the recognition of it's status as independent by other countries. Just because the US/Western Europe recognized Kosovo doesn't necessarily mean they'll recognize Chechnya, Dagestan, South Ossetia, I think they've even been making comments to that effect in relation to this event.

[icarus]

The difference between Kosovo and the independence movements of the post-colonial era is that in almost every case the colonial power agreed (grudgingly or not) to recognise the newly minted nation. Sure Indonesia didn't want to recognise Timor-Leste and Ethiopia didn't want to recognise Eritrea but when blood is shed the international community puts a lot of pressure on these developing countries to give up and recognise them. And they did. But with Kosovo it has been 9 years since the bloodshed, and yet members of the international community are just as willing to support the fledgling nation as they would have been then. It doesn't have the same influence on Serbia now though as it might have during the civil war.

Obviously you can't compare Kosovo to Montenegro as both involve independence from Serbia; the difference is that in one case Serbia agreed to recognise the country, and in the other they refuse.

[icarus]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Serbia was to Russia, what Croatia was to Ukraine.

Not sure Croatians will appreciate that analogy! Mango's gonna kick your ass!

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by icarus

Not sure Croatians will appreciate that analogy! Mango's gonna kick your ass!

I don't think it's offensive and I'm Croatian (via Bosnia). Then again, my maternal grandmother was Ukrainian... so why would I.

The comparison is only meant to stress the fact that each country had a history of independence even though they were part of a larger political union.