Barack Obama Sweeps "Ballot Bowl" Saturday

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Although Obama won these states, I don't think he gets all of the delegates. The last time I looked, CNN still has Obama 66 total delegates behind Clinton. I think Texas and another state are up next and Hillary is favored there. It's getting interesting though.

Well, interesting wrinkle when it comes to delegate totals. If you count only "pledged delegates"--that is, delegates that were awarded in an election, Obama actually has a slight lead over Clinton. CNN's totals include so-called "superdelegates," who can technically change their minds if they want to, since they're just officials and dignitaries of the party--and you can bet some will change their minds if it starts to look like Obama will win.

As for the GOP--McCain had a tough night too, but probably still has things sown up--unless (and this would be interesting) Romney instructs his delegates to vote for Huckabee. If he does that, the spread is probably less than 100 delegates after tonight's results are counted. That could make things suddenly a lot more exciting on the Republican side.

[Dan02]

Interesting how McCain was benefiting from the vote splitting going on between Huckabee and Romney, now that Romney's out it'll be interesting to see how his vote gets divided, i'd assume most of it would be for Huckabee.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Dan02

Interesting how McCain was benefiting from the vote splitting going on between Huckabee and Romney, now that Romney's out it'll be interesting to see how his vote gets divided, i'd assume most of it would be for Huckabee.

Agreed--and we're seeing a preview of that. But mathematically, Huckabee pretty much has to run the table now, and it's really pretty unlikely. The only thing that could make it interesting is if he somehow gets the delegates that are already pledged to Romney. But that's up to a certain Massachussetts Mormon, and he's not one to rock the boat. If the GOP "brass" tells him to give his delegates to McCain, he probably will.

The way it looks now, one of Romney or Huckabee probably needed to drop out before Super Tuesday. If they had, we might be looking at a different race right now.

[Nehkara]

Found the results for the Virgin Islands. Obama won 92% of the vote.

[HotHotHeat]

Originally Posted by Nehkara

Found the results for the Virgin Islands. Obama won 92% of the vote.

It's very telling how Obama sweeps all non mainland primaries. They see what's going on from an outsiders perspective...They know change needs to come.

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by HotHotHeat

It's very telling how Obama sweeps all non mainland primaries. They see what's going on from an outsiders perspective...They know change needs to come.

While I agree with the general sentiment, Hillary won American Samoa 57% to 42%.

The Democrats Abroad, however, has early results heavily favouring Obama (75%).

[icarus]

Virgin Islands? American freaking Samoa? Wow who knew these places get a say in anything to do with US politics. What's left? Guam? Midway?

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by icarus

Virgin Islands? American freaking Samoa? Wow who knew these places get a say in anything to do with US politics. What's left? Guam? Midway?

Virgin Islands has 3 pledged, 9 total delegates.

American Samoa has 3 pledged, 9 total delegates.

Democrats Abroad* has 7 pledged, 11 total delegates.

Guam has 4 pledged, 9 total delegates.

Puerto Rico has 55 pledged, 63 total delegates.


* =

Democrats Abroad is the official organization of the Democratic Party for United States citizens living permanently or temporarily abroad. The organization is given state-level recognition by the Democratic National Committee. Democrats Abroad currently has members in more than 100 countries, with more than 30 country committees. There are chapters in Europe, Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Oceania. These committees are formally represented by the Democratic Party Committee Abroad (DPCA). Some countries with particularly large concentrations of Democratic expatriates even have local chapters.

[Devils'Advocate]

Barrack was supposed to sweep these, plus Maine. Hillary just needs to keep it close until Pennsylvania which will throw her over the top. As much as I want Obama to take it, I'm not getting my hopes up yet. Even with these wins, Clinton is still the favorite.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

Barrack was supposed to sweep these, plus Maine. Hillary just needs to keep it close until Pennsylvania which will throw her over the top. As much as I want Obama to take it, I'm not getting my hopes up yet. Even with these wins, Clinton is still the favorite.

Pennsylvania is one of the last states and has 158 pledged delegates, about the same number as last night and would need to take almost a 2:1 vote advantage to just make up for last night. If Pennsylvania is the key for Clinton then I think she's done.

She needs to do well in states like texas and Ohio and if she gets beat in either one of those i think she's done because Obama is projected to take most of the smaller states left over at this point.

[HotHotHeat]

Something tells me Hillary is about to crash and burn. More and more political analysts are going on CNN and MSNBC and telling the American public Obama has a better chance of beating McCain than Hillary. I posted about this in another thread, but Bill Schnieder (sp?) from CNN talked about Hillary have a much higher (~10%) negative rating.

Here found the link:

A CNN poll, conducted by the Opinion Research Corporation February 1-3, shows Clinton three points ahead of McCain, 50 percent to 47 percent. That's within the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points, meaning that the race is statistically tied..

A Time magazine poll, conducted February 1-4, also shows a dead heat between Clinton and McCain. Each was backed by 46 percent of those polled.

Sen. Barack Obama believes he can do better, arguing "I've got appeal that goes beyond our party."

In the CNN poll, Obama leads McCain by 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent. That's outside the margin of error, meaning that Obama has the lead.

And in the Time poll, Obama leads McCain by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent -- a lead also outside of the poll's margin of error of 3 percentage points.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/...der/index.html

At the end of the day for democrats, it's about beating the GOP.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally Posted by icarus

Virgin Islands? American freaking Samoa? Wow who knew these places get a say in anything to do with US politics. What's left? Guam? Midway?

Do folks in Yukon and NWT not get a say in your process?

[4X4]

Originally Posted by Displaced Flames fan

Do folks in Yukon and NWT not get a say in your process?

No, actually. Nor do BC, Alberta, Sask and Manitoba.

[simonsays]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Well, interesting wrinkle when it comes to delegate totals. If you count only "pledged delegates"--that is, delegates that were awarded in an election, Obama actually has a slight lead over Clinton. CNN's totals include so-called "superdelegates," who can technically change their minds if they want to, since they're just officials and dignitaries of the party--and you can bet some will change their minds if it starts to look like Obama will win.

No. Superdelegates who 'change their mind' would be committing career suicide. Especially with an institutional superpower like Clinton. Remember how haunting the words 'flip flop' were in the last Presidential election?

Anyways with McCain running away with the GOP candidacy I'm not so certain how important it is that the good guys (Dems) win this one. I fear that an Obama White House would be a neutered Camelot, and a Hillery win would (if possible) make politics in the US even more partisan.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Originally Posted by 4X4

No, actually. Nor do BC, Alberta, Sask and Manitoba.

Ouch! Good one. I'm sure PEI, NB and NFLD feel the same way.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by simonsays

No. Superdelegates who 'change their mind' would be committing career suicide. Especially with an institutional superpower like Clinton. Remember how haunting the words 'flip flop' were in the last Presidential election?

Anyways with McCain running away with the GOP candidacy I'm not so certain how important it is that the good guys (Dems) win this one. I fear that an Obama White House would be a neutered Camelot, and a Hillery win would (if possible) make politics in the US even more partisan.

Historically, superdelegates have changed their minds, and in a primary that although it's close isn't really all that rancorous, I can't see a superdelegate continuing to support a doomed candidate at the convention. They typically vote for whoever will win. If it's close, they'll be the deciding factor, and the dems would be wise to avoid the optics of the "smoke filled room" that this would create.

Not sure what John Kerry's supposed "flip-flopping" has to do with delegates to a convention, especially since most Americans don't even know who these people are. Also--I think the "neutered Camelot" business is very much overstated. Obama isn't really much like Kennedy, though I realize that's a handy comparison for the media to make. Both men are/were good speakers--the similarities kind of end there.

[Wookie]

I haven't paid any attention to any of this. But, does Obama/Democrats have any chance of winning in the end?

[CrusaderPi]

Originally Posted by Displaced Flames fan

Ouch! Good one. I'm sure PEI, NB and NFLD feel the same way.

I don't want to get this thread too off track, but meh. You know based on MPs per population, a vote in PEI is worth about 4 times what a vote in Alberta is worth?

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by CrusaderPi

I don't want to get this thread too off track, but meh. You know based on MPs per population, a vote in PEI is worth about 4 times what a vote in Alberta is worth?

LOL I was just going to post that..

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Wookie

I haven't paid any attention to any of this. But, does Obama/Democrats have any chance of winning in the end?

Too early to tell, IMO--but there are some signs that the GOP is in for a tough election cycle. An unpopular president, economy in the tank, and a disaffected base are not exactly recipes for success. And turnout in democratic primaries has been twice as much as in GOP primaries, which is a very troubling sign for the Republicans. Not to mention that for the first time in recent memory, Democrats are raising way, way more money.