Democrats Shift Dramatically Towards Obama On The Eve Of Super Tuesday - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Nehkara · 02-04-2008, 08:23 AM

National Super Tuesday poll shows dramatic Democratic shift

Quote:

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton is losing ground to Sen. Barack Obama in a national CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released on the eve of critical Super Tuesday presidential primaries and caucuses.

The two are virtually tied in Monday's survey, which shows the New York senator has lost a comfortable national lead she's held for months over Obama and other rivals.

The survey also shows Arizona Sen. John McCain as the clear Republican front-runner.

Obama, who trounced Clinton in January's South Carolina primary, garnered 49 percent of registered Democrats in Monday's poll, while Clinton trailed by just three points, a gap well within the survey's 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

"Coming out of his overwhelming victory in South Carolina and followed quickly by his Kennedy family endorsements, Obama clearly has the momentum in this campaign," said Bill Schneider, CNN's senior political analyst.

I really hope Obama wins Super Tuesday tomorrow and all but finishes this thing off.

Iowa_Flames_Fan · 02-04-2008, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nehkara

National Super Tuesday poll shows dramatic Democratic shift

I really hope Obama wins Super Tuesday tomorrow and all but finishes this thing off.

It won't be over to-morrow. The Dems don't have any winner-take-all states, so even if Obama wins most of the states, both will probably end up with about 800 delegates. This thing could go on for a while.

Incogneto · 02-04-2008, 08:29 AM

Oh man...I kinda wish I could be at home watching this instead of going to the Flames game. Gonna be a fun night.

transplant99 · 02-04-2008, 08:38 AM

This one will likely come down to the convention. Lots of undecided still.

Nehkara · 02-04-2008, 08:39 AM

Some people don't much like politics but no matter who you are... this race is very interesting.

I do understand that it won't be over tomorrow no matter what happens but I kind of wish it could be.

Iowa_Flames_Fan · 02-04-2008, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nehkara

Some people don't much like politics but no matter who you are... this race is very interesting.

I do understand that it won't be over tomorrow no matter what happens but I kind of wish it could be.

I suspect the DNC wishes it could be over soon too!

It'll be an interesting night, that's for sure. I'll be flipping back and forth from the game and CNN to-morrow night.

SeeGeeWhy · 02-04-2008, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

Oh man...I kinda wish I could be at home watching this instead of going to the Flames game. Gonna be a fun night.

I'll take your tickets.

peter12 · 02-04-2008, 08:58 AM

This one of the few nights where I would give my Flames tickets away to be able to watch this pretty dramatic day unfold.

blankall · 02-04-2008, 09:17 AM

I have to admit Obama is doing much better than I expected him to do. I'm curious if the idea of a card w/ both of them would ever happen? Originally I felt they hated eachother too much, but after some recent debates it seems more likely.

mykalberta · 02-04-2008, 09:21 AM

On MtP on Suday they indicated Obama was on the rise and Clinton trying to hold ground.

They poised that Clinton could possibly lose California and even the staunchest Clinton supporter said that would it for Hillary if she were to lose California.

Very intersting on the left side.

Nehkara · 02-04-2008, 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mykalberta

On MtP on Suday they indicated Obama was on the rise and Clinton trying to hold ground.

They poised that Clinton could possibly lose California and even the staunchest Clinton supporter said that would it for Hillary if she were to lose California.

Very intersting on the left side.

Recent polls have Obama leading in California. If he wins that, it will be huge.

peter12 · 02-04-2008, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blankall

I have to admit Obama is doing much better than I expected him to do. I'm curious if the idea of a card w/ both of them would ever happen? Originally I felt they hated eachother too much, but after some recent debates it seems more likely.

Yeah, but would Clinton take the role of VP on the ticket?

Cowperson · 02-04-2008, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nehkara

Recent polls have Obama leading in California. If he wins that, it will be huge.

I'm not sure that would necessarily matter.

As I understand it, in the Democrat race, there are something like 53 electoral districts in California, all of vastly varying populations but each awarding three delegates.

In other words, this is one state where surveys probably mean absolutely nothing given the lowest population district has as much impact as the highest population district.

Nationally, for convention purposes, Clinton purportedly may have a decisive edge in pledged support among non-elected super delegates.

Cowperson

Thunderball · 02-04-2008, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blankall

I have to admit Obama is doing much better than I expected him to do. I'm curious if the idea of a card w/ both of them would ever happen? Originally I felt they hated eachother too much, but after some recent debates it seems more likely.

Due to their public squabbling and constant antagonization, I have a very hard time believing an Obama/Clinton ticket could be on the cards. Sadly, I also think it might be too much for the average voter to vote for a woman and a black man... remember change is hard for some people.

I personally think that Edwards is the VP on either ticket.

Nehkara · 02-04-2008, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cowperson

I'm not sure that would necessarily matter.

As I understand it, in the Democrat race, there are something like 53 electoral districts in California, all of vastly varying populations but each awarding three delegates.

In other words, this is one state where surveys probably mean absolutely nothing given the lowest population district has as much impact as the highest population district.

Nationally, for convention purposes, Clinton purportedly may have a decisive edge in pledged support among non-elected super delegates.

Cowperson

I do understand that. I know that Obama needs to win the primaries by enough so that Clinton's lead in superdelegates doesn't come back to bite him.

peter12 · 02-04-2008, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunderball

Due to their public squabbling and constant antagonization, I have a very hard time believing an Obama/Clinton ticket could be on the cards. Sadly, I also think it might be too much for the average voter to vote for a woman and a black man... remember change is hard for some people.

I personally think that Edwards is the VP on either ticket.

I don't hold the argument that Americans aren't ready for a woman and a black man. It may hold true in certain states, but remember that South Carolina Democrats just voted resoundingly for a black man. Stereotypes change and the only reason some of them stay around for so long is that people refuse to see the truth.

As for a Clinton/Obama ticket, I am in total agreement with you. Too much fire there, too much bad blood. I could see Obama taking the VP, but Clinton's got too much ego for that.

Dan02 · 02-04-2008, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunderball

I personally think that Edwards is the VP on either ticket.

I think if Clinton wins she should take Obama with her, but if Obama wins Edwards is the choice.

Dan02 · 02-04-2008, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nehkara

Estimated Total Delegates for Clinton (including superdelegates): 232
Estimated Total Delegates for Obama (including superdelegates): 158

Should be noted that that leaves about 400 superdelegates undecided though, its not like Clinton has won a massive majority of the superdelegates.

Table 5 · 02-04-2008, 10:07 AM

I'm not really sure why Obama would want Hillary on his ticket...there are still way too many people out there who can't stand this woman (myself included, although i've softened a bit lately), especially on the Republican side. I don't see how she would help his case at all...it would just give the Republican candidate something to target.

Nehkara · 02-04-2008, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dan02

Should be noted that that leaves about 400 superdelegates undecided though, its not like Clinton has won a massive majority of the superdelegates.

You are right, I'll post the full details here.

Estimated Total Delegates for Clinton (including superdelegates): 232
Estimated Total Delegates for Obama (including superdelegates): 158

Total Pledged Delegates for Clinton: 48
Total Pledged Delegates for Obama: 63

Undecided Superdelegates: 517
Undecided Pledged Delegates: 3142

Pledged Delegates Decided On Super Tuesday: 1688
Super Delegates Dedcided On Super Tuesday: 400

Just need to hope that Obama can get to 2025 delegates.