Quote:
Originally Posted by mykalberta
Very strange how the pollsters were all wrong.
I was sitting there and they were talking about possible reasons they could be wrong and no one mentioned the Edwards decline (Obama didnt drop in female voters, Hillary took almost all of Edwards decline).
Obama didnt drop in support, Hillary picked up all the far left Edwards support. I assume they just discounted Edwards and thought they would split that vote.
Can anyone confrm - I have heard the Hillary still has 100mil in the war chest - is that true?
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The results say gender was the issue. Hillary won because of her support from women. Oprah was clearly not the defining factor in choosing the next president.
From msnbc:
"-- Women voters predominated in Democratic contest.
-- Men predominated in Republican primary.Hillary Rodham Clinton had a clear lead among women, getting nearly half their vote. Barack Obama had about as strong an advantage over Clinton among men. Women made up more than half of voters in the Democratic contest."
I just don't think that women perceive the crying thing as a weakness the same way men do. I think it added a very human element to her campaign. She is very much an ice woman. There is another thread about whether it was calculated or not. There is a very good chance it was, but that is politics.
I also think the polls were misleading in favor of Obama for two reasons:
1) they did not take into account the gender split
2) Obama is more about hype than any candidate I can remember
The Edward decline may have played a factor. About 3 weeks ago when Hillary was clearly dominating, the consensus seemed to be that the Edwards split would hurt Hillary more than it helped. Also, I'm not sure that any splitting of Edwards vote actually happened. He was predicted to get about 18% of the vote, and that is exactly what he got. Obama didn't really show a large decline, but I just think people underestimated the support Hillary would get once there actually appeared to be a chance she might lose. The extra votes seemed to come partially from Obama and the rest from undecided or fringe candidates.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ation-191.html