Real estate market

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Completely agree.
There are other factors then just availible land when it comes to sprawl. People will want to live closer to the core and be willing to go into smaller condos to do so. It may take time, but eventually Calgary will develope a vibrant core that people want to be in because of the lifestyle.
That's why I think condos in good locations and small houses in close to core areas are the best bet for Calgary investors. Everything else will be a dime a dozen and boring.

If comparing to Vancouver, I'd be trying to find the Coal Harbour, Yaletown, Gastown and Kits of Calgary. Small trendy areas that young professionals are willing to blow their wallets out on because of the lifestyle.

To me the next spot that would be a kits/yaletown cross may be the sunnyside/kensington area.

The city has been doing some good work around planning to rezone around the sunnyside lrt station. There's a few NIMBY's they will need to work through but in the next 5 years I look for that area to get better. In terms of infills, the east side of Sunnyside will be the best part of the city. There are about 5 blocks that will be left out of that TOD. It will be the only spot in the city and one of the only areas on the continent where 2 units per 50ft lot will be encouraged, and you still only have a 10 walk to the middle of the core.

As for other areas, along 4th St SW, once they clean up that eyesore on about 20th, and those new projects such as Lumere pop up I think there is some potential there. And lastly, the Eau Claire area is looking good. Waterfront seems well planned and is extremely popular, I heard the W hotel is looking at the current eau claire site, and regardless about a dozen buildings will pop up in the next 5 years along the river there.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by Claeren

That is a nice picture and a good model to fight for but i am not sure it has anything to do with the fundamental realities of the market. Sounds more like an urban studies university student world!

As gas pricing rises our world fuel economy is increasing and alternative fuels are coming to market. People in other cities already go to far greater lengths at far higher costs to live in their respective suburban homes. Calgary is FAR from that threshold. 50 years or more away from that i would think, and that is assuming no fundamental change in the way we wish to live or transport ourselves.

However that is not my point really. Even downtown and around downtown we have FAR more land than most cities with comparable pricing. There are no downtown area land scarcity problems with room for literally thousands of towers within minutes of downtown.

So even if we hit some wall where no one could live in the suburbs anymore, we would still have FAR more potential units of living space than most other major cities around the world, which would thus undermine long term real estate prices.



Claeren.

The rest of your post I either agree with, or to the extent I disagree, I see your perspective. However the part I bolded I completely disagree with.

There are no real alternatives for decades. I'm not an urban studies student, instead I work in O&G and have seen many areas of the buisiness including alternatives. And alternatives have a way to go to be commercially viable. I wish I was wrong but we are very very hydrocarbon dependent for several decades yet.

As far as other folks in other cities going to farther lengths, that is true, and TO seems like the poster child to me for this, however nobody has gone to the lenghts I have illustrated in a $2.00 per litre world.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

As for other areas, along 4th St SW, once they clean up that eyesore on about 20th, and those new projects such as Lumere pop up I think there is some potential there. And lastly, the Eau Claire area is looking good. Waterfront seems well planned and is extremely popular, I heard the W hotel is looking at the current eau claire site, and regardless about a dozen buildings will pop up in the next 5 years along the river there.

Lumiere and Waterfront are both my companies projects. I bought at Waterfront and think that location is amazing. At our first launch, we had hundreads of people lined up and sold out the first tower when the market was really slow. Waterfront seems to be relatively uneffected by the current slowdown and is even surprising those of us on the inside. As you stated, it was a very well planned project. We were planning it for over 2 years and flew out most of our company from Van to make the launch a huge success.

[Flames in 07]

I saw that lineup as I was going for a run.

[Nabber]

The market is always slow around this time, people just don't want to buy houses in the winter, but those that do I believe get the better deals. I still believe Calgary is in for another year of moderate gains, which will start in January or February, but of course that is my opinion and there is never a 100% guarantee.

As prices have dropped a fair bit since September this year, many people, including many of my clients are jumping on places right now as they see the lower price compared to months ago and want to buy. Sellers need to be agressive in the price to sell at this current time which helps lower prices, come January or February especially if interest rates drop, which is what everyone is predicting, sellers will be the ones in demand. They is still no economic factor that will cause the market to continue on a down fall, and until that happens Calgary is still a hot real estate market, just slow at the moment.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by Nabber

The market is always slow around this time, people just don't want to buy houses in the winter, but those that do I believe get the better deals. I still believe Calgary is in for another year of moderate gains, which will start in January or February, but of course that is my opinion and there is never a 100% guarantee.

As prices have dropped a fair bit since September this year, many people, including many of my clients are jumping on places right now as they see the lower price compared to months ago and want to buy. Sellers need to be agressive in the price to sell at this current time which helps lower prices, come January or February especially if interest rates drop, which is what everyone is predicting, sellers will be the ones in demand. They is still no economic factor that will cause the market to continue on a down fall, and until that happens Calgary is still a hot real estate market, just slow at the moment.

I've read from many sources four consecutive 1/4 point drops are the tentative plan, that is not a small datapoint especially if they happen in the spring.

[Claeren]

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

The rest of your post I either agree with, or to the extent I disagree, I see your perspective. However the part I bolded I completely disagree with.

There are no real alternatives for decades. I'm not an urban studies student, instead I work in O&G and have seen many areas of the buisiness including alternatives. And alternatives have a way to go to be commercially viable. I wish I was wrong but we are very very hydrocarbon dependent for several decades yet.

As far as other folks in other cities going to farther lengths, that is true, and TO seems like the poster child to me for this, however nobody has gone to the lenghts I have illustrated in a $2.00 per litre world.

Well Toronto has ~1/3 less land than Calgary at any one distance from the core. And they have what, 6M people to our 1M? And Toronto is growing faster than Calgary in absolute numbers and the suburbs is still where most of that growth is.

Factor in family cars getting already 35MPG working with hybrid technology that already offers 60MPG and new tech that might offer even more milage in to the 120MPG range within a decade i bet... and $2/L gas does not look so bad! In fact it would still be one of the cheapest substances on earth... Even at $4/L i don't see it being a long term deterrent to a lot of people wanting to live the 'suburban dream' (yuck!).

I think Calgary would be in the 6M-8M person range before suburban land was no longer really workable for downtown workers, and even then people would start moving to Red Deer and take in the bullet train (haha).


I HOPE you are right that suburban growth slows, but i don't think it will...




Claeren.

[Claeren]

Originally Posted by Nabber

As prices have dropped a fair bit since September this year, many people, including many of my clients are jumping on places right now as they see the lower price compared to months ago and want to buy. Sellers need to be agressive in the price to sell at this current time which helps lower prices, come January or February especially if interest rates drop, which is what everyone is predicting, sellers will be the ones in demand. They is still no economic factor that will cause the market to continue on a down fall, and until that happens Calgary is still a hot real estate market, just slow at the moment.

It was speculation over the (lack of) capacity to build relative to the economic prospects of the Alberta market that drove pricing.

The economy alone has little to do with it.

With capacity to build more units than are needed for the foreseeable future there is more than enough internal competition in the market to keep prices in check.

It only makes sense to buy for profit right now if you believe the city will need substantially more than the 30,000+ units/year the market is currently able to provide.

(Or that for some reason the market will suddenly become unable to provide that 30,000 units and can only provide say 15,000 of the needed 20,000 for example. All of which is unlikely).


Claeren.

[Claeren]

[EDIT: Nevermind!]

[Top Shelf]

Good thread, it's been a while since we had a good thread about real estate. We are contemplating moving from our townhouse in Royal Oak, we've been here since they were built in 2004.

I've been doing a lot of research on the market and different areas, and there seems to be greater price drops in certain areas. Airdrie prices have really dropped in the last few months, I was just at the showhomes in Coopers Crossing this morning and 500K get you a gorgeous, huge house. Even 400k gets you quite the house out there.

I think we'll list our townhouse first though, although from what I have seen, the townhouse prices aren't dropping nearly as fast as single family homes. I guess they are maybe still a happy middle point for some families?


Anyways, it is an interesting time to follow the market. After this week, it really seems for sure that there is going to be a rate cut. A poster above mentioned 4 consecutive quarter point cuts? That would be pretty cool.

I still think the market has a few more months to go to correct itself. A good time to buy thats for sure.

[Flame On]

We had our place assessed by a bank in June, who tend to assess what it's worth not what you could get for it. I.e. it's a little conservative. After that we were hoping to sell our place now and it climbed a bit, in what we could get but has subsequently gone back to the June prices.
Things have levelled a bit but not collapsed...I hope. I heard the average time to sell a condo had been 28 days or something, and now it's back to a more "normal" 41.

[SeeGeeWhy]

This is a great thread, people!

To the original poster... I've been noticing a lot of stale listings, but I think that's to be expected in the winter. If there is an area or lot type or something that you have been looking for, now would be a good time to go in and make an offer to try to save some money.

I think that the fundamentals are still strong for certain segments of the market and that there are some really good deals to be had out there.

[Claeren]

The one thing i would add is that the market is never rational in the short term but is always rational in the long term.


Not to say that figuring out the correct rationalization of the market is easy in anything but hindsight...




Claeren.

[metallicat]

Thanks for all the great info guys. I missed the boat two years ago, and want to get into the market in the near future. I just don't want to make an even bigger mistake than not buying in the past.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by oilers_fan

Thanks for all the great info guys. I missed the boat two years ago, and want to get into the market in the near future. I just don't want to make an even bigger mistake than not buying in the past.

oilers_fan, I would suggest spending alot time learning about real estate before you spend alot of money (rather then spend alot of money before you spend alot of time). There's tons of great resources in books and the internet. I'm personally looking to get into real estate first as well, but I'm making sure I get a solid foundation before I invest my money.

[Wookie]

Decided to take a look over at creb www.creb.com before hitting the sac after a the OT loss.

Avg sale price over the last 30 days is listed as $462,022. I saw it fall as low as $448,xxx during the month of November.

There was an article in the Herald the other day that the inventory was increasing at a slower pace (or even decreasing) can't remember. And that the price had stabilized and was starting to increase. Although the median price still fell for the month.

Not saying things are taking off - still a few typical slow months ahead before the spring increase (will it increase, will it stay put?). But people may be starting to get more interested as possession dates are after the new year and no longer falling around x-mas time.