Blue Jays Official Offseason 2007-2008 Threa

[ShaolinFlame]

To my surprise this topic seems to be lacking in discussion.
JP has said it will be rather quiet, but who knows. What do y'all think?

Questions?
1-Backup Catcher. With Zaun staying on, but getting older, who will back him up? As of now two prospects are competing (Thigpen v Diaz)

2-Starting Pitching. I quite frankly am getting quite sick of AJ. It is so frustrating to watch AJs extreme ups and downs. The fact that he has a reputation as a bit of an embellisher when it comes to pain doesn't help. Gustavo is good, but when guys start to time his delivery properly he is half the pitcher he is the first go round. It's the AL east, and the only way the jays are gonna pull that WC is with another 95+ guy out there. Or maybe take a chance on a knuckler? Worked well for Bean Town (although the Wake is on heck of a knuckler).

3- Leadoff?
Rios v Johnson. Thoughts?

4-FA market. Any pickups? Anyone good out there? I haven't had a chance yet to go over FA lists yet, sorry.

5- Management?
What are your thoughts on the Gib. I like his attitude, and him as a person, but sometimes his decision have me screaming at the TV. Pitching changes always seem to come too early or too late, and sometimes I struggle to wrap my head around the orders he comes up with. But then again this could all be one big metaphorical case of 'back seat driver (who has no license)'

[flambers]

(1) I would think the Jays will sign an older veteran Catcher to a 1 year deal. Both of the young Catchers will spend 1 more year at AAA. (maybe Sal Fasano will be ressigned)

(2) SP - Jays will look for a 5th starter; the rest will stay. Expect Towers to leave, Chacin is another that has no place.

(3) Lead-0ff, good question Reed in my view is now a platoon guy with Stairs. So I would guess Rios and Johnson will take turns leading off.

(4) FA - Back-up Catcher, 5th starter and maybe a reserve infielder.

(5) Management - No changes. I expect the manager to be fired by mid-season.

The guy that should be fired is JP, next season should be his last. He has drafted poorly, made bad free agent signings, bad trades.....etc

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by ShaolinFlame

To my surprise this topic seems to be lacking in discussion.
JP has said it will be rather quiet, but who knows. What do y'all think?

Questions?
1-Backup Catcher. With Zaun staying on, but getting older, who will back him up? As of now two prospects are competing (Thigpen v Diaz)

Thigpen should probably get the backup slot and just platoon with Zaun (Zaun hitting vs. Righties and Thigpen vs. Lefties), which would work out to decent production - Thigpen is just a slap hitter, so I'm not sure what kind of upside offensively we are looking at from him or if for that matter he can keep it up. He should be decent, but nothing special.

2-Starting Pitching. I quite frankly am getting quite sick of AJ. It is so frustrating to watch AJs extreme ups and downs. The fact that he has a reputation as a bit of an embellisher when it comes to pain doesn't help. Gustavo is good, but when guys start to time his delivery properly he is half the pitcher he is the first go round. It's the AL east, and the only way the jays are gonna pull that WC is with another 95+ guy out there. Or maybe take a chance on a knuckler? Worked well for Bean Town (although the Wake is on heck of a knuckler).

Well, there aren't any knucklers in the bigs pitching (Boston has 2 more in AAA) aside from Wakefield, so we aren't going to find any there. I think you need another horse to pitch, and that man is Bartolo Colon. 1 year or 2 years + incentives is a very fair contract, and so far he isn't getting a ton of attention. He has had 2 years of suck/injuries after being an ace pitcher for a very long time. And has a Cy Young to his credit and is a WINNER. Litsch/Chacin can stay in AAA this year and work out their problems. Chacin actually has another option year left, so JP should send him down to AAA to work on his stuff. Same with Jesse. Nice run, but terrible peripherals - he did it with smoke and mirrors last season. Anyways, Stats show your #6/#7 starters get a TON of work anyways. Usually about 110-140 IP - so you need the depth.

3- Leadoff?
Rios v Johnson. Thoughts?

None of the above. Rios as a leadoff hitter is wasted. He has a high batting average and good power and was one of the best hitters on the team, and he should be hitting #3 or #4 this year (#3 probably). Johnson shouldn't be starting as we need a Left handed bat in the lineup in the OF - Aka Stairs or Lind (Stairs is pretty much a lock here).

Wells should probably be leading off, he has had some success there in the past and until he regains his power stroke, he should probably sit there (or at the bottom of the lineup) for a while. For the lineup, this is what I would do:

Wells/Overbay/Rios/Stairs/Thomas/Glaus/Hill/Zaun/Jmac

Switch it around for lefties

Johnson/Wells/Rios/Thomas/Glaus/Hill/Overbay/Thigpen/Jmac

4-FA market. Any pickups? Anyone good out there? I haven't had a chance yet to go over FA lists yet, sorry.

Arod is the only upgrade at Shortstop on the list - Eckstien is overrated and a very minimal upgrade. None of the others are better than Jmac really. I'd sign Colon as a Starter. As mentioned before, off years, could sign at a reasonable price and very high upside.

Micheal Barrett is a guy who we could sign as a catcher, who has very high upside. Probably at a decent price. His stock has fallen after being DFA'd, but he has very high offensive upside as well. Great numbers in the past couple years as a catcher. Him/Zaun would be very solid.

The only way you can upgrade at SS is to make a trade.

5- Management?
What are your thoughts on the Gib. I like his attitude, and him as a person, but sometimes his decision have me screaming at the TV. Pitching changes always seem to come too early or too late, and sometimes I struggle to wrap my head around the orders he comes up with. But then again this could all be one big metaphorical case of 'back seat driver (who has no license)'

I firmly believe that I could manage this team better than Gibbons and that is the god honest truth. If the Jays hired me tommorrow and fired Gibby, this team would be better for it.

All year his roster construction was nothing short of Brutal - Wells in the #3/#4 hole most of the time, where he was little more than a parasite - so many wasted chances for the offense. Stairs/Rios batting leadoff - Seriously, what the HELL was he thinking? Your 2 best hitters leading off for most of the season is an absolutely TERRIBLE idea. They should have been the #3/#4 guys in the lineup - you want those hitters in RBI situations.

Bullpen management was questionable as well - Captain Hook was inconsistant, yanking guys too quickly or to slowly and had us biting our nails in such cases as: "Why the hell is Scott Downs facing Manny, the most feared hitter vs. Lefties in the game?".

As mentioned in the previous Jays thread, I'd change a lot about this team, including the balance, because I think the head honcho (JP) has made a lot of poor decisions. JP would be fired by me in a New York Minute.

[Sylvanfan]

Well with the Canadian dollar looking to be at or par with the US dollar I do wonder if the Jays maybe have some flex in their spending. Although...JP has totally gone about building his team the wrong way....it's an expensive old mediocre mess.

Lets analyze the Jays lineup vs. say the Sox and Yankees

Varitek/Posada vs Zaun switch hitting catchers...but it's not even close in terms of what they bring. Big time edge to the competition.

Overbay vs Youkilis/Phillips whoever
well if Overbay is healthy than it's sort of close. But last year....yikes. But I'll give Overbay the benefit of the doubt that he'll rebound to being a 290 hitter with 20 HR and 90 RBI. First base is a surprisingly weak position in the AL East in terms of hitters.

Pedrioa/Cano vs. Hill
You'd think Hill is a good 2nd baseman given he's been a 290 hitter the past couple years. But again you have Robinson Cano and Pedrioa on the competition. These guys are 300 plus hitters, have the same or better power. Pedrioa may be prone to a sophomore slump...but I wouldn't bank on it.

McDonald vs Lugo/Jeter
Well Johnny Mac can play defence, but his hitting is weak. I suspect the Sox will look to upgrade on Lugo if they can, but even he still drove in 70 runs with a bad season. Johnny Mac can't do that in his dreams. Again Jays lose out here.

Roid Glaus vs AROD/Lowell
If the Sox don't bring back Lowell they end up trading for Cabrera. If the Yankees don't reup A-Rod, they'll get someone else who blows Glaus out of the water. Than add in the steroid stuff and I seriously don't think you can expect more than a 250 average and 20 HR out of Glaus. Again big disadvantage.

DH
Thomas vs. Ortiz/Giambi-whoever else
Well again you'd think the Jays spent money here...but Thomas and Glaus are nearly the same hitter save that Thomas isn't juiced up and suffering the fun of that. Nowhere near Ortiz, and maybe even or better than Giambi. Still Jays would be better off with a LH hitting DH.

CF
Wells vs. Ellsbury/Cabera-Damon

If Wells is healthy than this might be one place that the Jays do okay. But again they've spent a fortune on Wells and he was horrible last year. If he doens't rebound to hit 300, drive in 100 runs and post a 900 or so OBSP he's under producing big time vs. what he's paid. Ellsbury will hit 300 and steal bases and Cabrera hit better than Wells last year. All three can play good defence.

Corner outfielders
Rios, Johnson, Stairs
vs.
Abreua, Matsui, Damon
Ramirez, Drew, Crisp

Rios and Stairs were actually a pretty good duo for the Jays last year as both hit 20 HR and had around a 900 OBSP. Rios is still a good young guy and Stairs was bang for the buck. Overall they didn't fall that far off of what the competition was given how far behind they look on paper. Still if the other teams guys are healthy...they blow these guys out of the water.

Pitching...The Jays do compete with these guys. Halladay can be as good or better than Beckett and Wang to head up the staff. Burnett when healthy was the Jays best pitcher last year and can be a good #2 guy. Given that he can opt out of his contract after this year...I'd expect him to be healthy and have a good year. The back of the rotation is where you wonder if Marcum, McGowan, Litsch, Chacin can hold up. McGowan has ace type stuff and seemed to find his way in the second half last year. Marcum is a control guy, but he did fade down the stretch. Both got lit up against the Sox and Yankees when they faced them. Litsch doesn't seem to have great stuff...but he almost seems to have a better makeup. He actually hung in there against the Yankees and after a bad start against the Sox came back with a good effort the next time out. Still can he give you pitching like that for a full year?

In the Pen they could be pretty solid if Tallet, Downs, Wolfe, Janssen and Accardo throw like they did last year and Ryan comes back to anchor the group. They might have an arm or two that they can spare for other help so long as Ryan is back.

I thought Gibbons in game managing was very suspect. Again this is the AL East and Francona and Torre ate him alive. Now Torre is gone, but Girardi is no idiot. The Jays should be trying to lure Phill Garner...I think he could scrape more out of his group.

Overall the Jays need to realize that if they'll ever compete with the Yankees and Sox, they need to be more like the Indians, Twins, or Braves where you set up a great farm system grow your players from within. Right now the Jays system is producing nothing and when it comes to acquiring free agent talent they'll always lose out to the other two teams in their division.

[flamesaresmokin]

In my opinion the jays need to find a shortstop that can hit for a decent average. Mcdonald is great defensively but if they could find a younger guy who can learn d from johnny mac and maybe eat up 80-90 games doing so i think it would drastically improve the jays lineup. A lot of guys had off years and I think if they stand pat on the team they should have a better year and can definitely challenge for a wildcard. The Bullpen is more then adequate imo and the rotation is solid with four good pitchers fighting for three spots...adding another arm would be good but in reality the need is in the batting order.

[OILFAN #81]

Jays acquire Scutaro from Oakland
http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story/?ID=223162&hubname=

Plan the parade!

[CaramonLS]

Jays acquire Macro Scutaro from the A's.

Offensively, he is an upgrade over Jmac, Defensively he is amoung the poorer SSs in the league (consistantly bottom 1/3rd % according to defensive zone ratings from year to year over the last 3).

Kristian Bell and Graham Godfrey were the 2 prospects traded by the Jays. Both had not great, kind of disappointing seasons but the A's seem to like both players and they have some good zip on their fastballs (and when the A's like certain prospects, you should get a little worried, because they probably just robbed you).

I'm just not sure how much of an upgrade this really is. I guess it is. Maybe, kind of, sort of. Depends on how he does this year.

Oil fan beat me!

[ricoFlame]

Originally Posted by OILFAN #81

Jays acquire Scutaro from Oakland
http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story/?ID=223162&hubname=

Plan the parade!

really, he's a .260 hitter, so he adds . . . not much.

[OILFAN #81]

Originally Posted by ricoFlame

really, he's a .260 hitter, so he adds . . . not much.

I was being

[Sylvanfan]

Fart what a redundant acquisition. A mediocre right handed hitting utility infielder with a bad OBSP. No wonder the Jays can't ever get more than a mediocre squad. J.P. is good at spending money....but thats about it. Seriously this team has to completely rework their phillosophy for how to build a ball club. Dumb, dumb, dumb. Like Scutaro won't ruin the team....but he'll add absolutely nothing.

[JayP]

I'd say getting a .704 career OPS SS is solid upgrade over McDonald's career OPS of .595.

It's not like the Jays didn't need infield depth anyways. Scutaro is a HUGE upgrade over the utility guys the Jays had last season.

Scutaro is miles better than Jason Smith, Howie Clark, and Ray Almedo.

[Super-Rye]

It's not like they brought Scutaro in to be the starting SS or anything. Can't argue with adding depth. Wait until training camp rolls around and then if McDonald and Scutaro are still the top 2 SS's on the team, then complain.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Super-Rye

It's not like they brought Scutaro in to be the starting SS or anything. Can't argue with adding depth. Wait until training camp rolls around and then if McDonald and Scutaro are still the top 2 SS's on the team, then complain.

I'm complaining because they added the same type of player they already have in spades. It's a pointless redundant acquisition in my opinion. A right handed hitting 260 hitter with so so power who's defence is okay. I mean if you want to platoon a guy with John McDonald...find a guy who maybe adds a different element to the game. Unless something else comes in terms of a bigger deal...I see no point to this move.

It's like the guy was there to be traded for so they made the trade even though it appears to basically serve zero purpose. Sounds like Mike Barnett is running the Blue Jays.

[Super-Rye]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I'm complaining because they added the same type of player they already have in spades. It's a pointless redundant acquisition in my opinion. A right handed hitting 260 hitter with so so power who's defence is okay. I mean if you want to platoon a guy with John McDonald...find a guy who maybe adds a different element to the game. Unless something else comes in terms of a bigger deal...I see no point to this move.

It's like the guy was there to be traded for so they made the trade even though it appears to basically serve zero purpose. Sounds like Mike Barnett is running the Blue Jays.

He's there to compete. That's all. They didn't give up much for him, and he may not even make the team out of training camp. But lets say, god forbid, someone gets injured he may have to step in there and play a few games. Low risk move that just adds a bit of depth to the lineup.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Super-Rye

He's there to compete. That's all. They didn't give up much for him, and he may not even make the team out of training camp. But lets say, god forbid, someone gets injured he may have to step in there and play a few games. Low risk move that just adds a bit of depth to the lineup.

Scutaro is going to be paid a couple million dollars this season, you're damned right he makes it out of training camp (hes going to goto arb and likely get 2.5-3 million. He made 1.55 last year).

This move is what it is, adds maybe a tiny bit to the lineup, eats up some more payroll and doesn't provide what the Jays truely need.

Syl is right, and I'm glad he's finally come over to my side of thinking on the jays .

[ricoFlame]

Originally Posted by OILFAN #81

I was being

yeah, i was just using your post to say what i was talking about. your opinion was obvious.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I'm complaining because they added the same type of player they already have in spades. It's a pointless redundant acquisition in my opinion. A right handed hitting 260 hitter with so so power who's defence is okay. I mean if you want to platoon a guy with John McDonald...find a guy who maybe adds a different element to the game. Unless something else comes in terms of a bigger deal...I see no point to this move.

It's like the guy was there to be traded for so they made the trade even though it appears to basically serve zero purpose. Sounds like Mike Barnett is running the Blue Jays.

Why do you keep bringing up batting average? OBP, Slugging, and OPS have been proven time and time again to be vastly superior statistics.

And while Scutaro might not be great offensively he's miles ahead of McDonald (.320 vs. .279 OBP, .384 vs. .316 SLG, and .704 vs. .595 OPS).

Realistically there's not much out there for short-shops. In free agency the best options are:

David Eckstein - very comparable to Scutaro. Higher OBP, lower SLG.

Mark Loretta - slightly better than Scuataro offensively. Getting up there in age (will turn 37 during the season) so he's a risk at the price you'd have to pay for him as an UFA.

Royce Clayton - Enough said.

Neffi Perez - Yeah he's probably the forth best UFA SS...

I highly doubt Mark Scutaro gets 2.5-3 million in arbitration..

[Sylvanfan]

Fine it's a brilliant acquisition that will make the Jays an AL East contender! They should be spending 2 million a year on mediocre back up middle infielders instead of figuring out how to scout and develop proper legitimate young prospects like the Indians do.

[ricoFlame]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Fine it's a brilliant acquisition that will make the Jays an AL East contender! They should be spending 2 million a year on mediocre back up middle infielders instead of figuring out how to scout and develop proper legitimate young prospects like the Indians do.

finally, someone said it. the blue jay way is the real way to build a champ!

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

Syl is right, and I'm glad he's finally come over to my side of thinking on the jays .

Yeah, it only took me 5 years of watching Ricciardi's mediocre ways to figure it out. Better late than never I guess.