2020 NHL Entry Draft - Page 55 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

shutout · 10-03-2020, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Ryan Pike @RyanNPike
Treliving says there's depth in this draft, especially with the top 40. #Flames

So that means it might be just as likely that the Flames trade #19 because a team is really in love with Lapierre believing him to be a top ten talent.

So one of three things happen

Trade with Ducks for 27 and 36
Trade with Senators for 28 and 33
Trade with Sharks for 31 and 34

Rick M. · 10-03-2020, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shutout

So that means it might be just as likely that the Flames trade #19 because a team is really in love with Lapierre believing him to be a top ten talent.

So one of three things happen

Trade with Ducks for 27 and 36
Trade with Senators for 28 and 33
Trade with Sharks for 31 and 34

I’d rather see the Flames keep their first round pick and acquire an additional pick between 32 and 40. Saying there is a lot of talent in the top 40 doesn’t mean picks in the high 20s and later are as good as what the Flames can draft at 19, especially if someone really good drops to them.

Roof-Daddy · 10-03-2020, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Lapierre with 4 points in his first game of the season. If he's there at 19 we should take him, no doubt in my mind.

Ugh, stop that until after the draft Hendrix. If he keeps doing that he won't make it to 19th OA so the Flames at least have a chance to nab him.

Enoch Root · 10-03-2020, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Before the season started, Kylington was a potential top 3 pick that year on a couple of lists that I saw, and Andersson was a top 8.

I really like Kylington and I hope that the Flames invest some minutes into him, but there is no way that he is even a top 15 or 20 pick - maybe not even in the first round. Andersson I think moved up into the first round in a re-draft, but I don't think he is a top 8 pick at the moment (without even taking a look to compare).

Definitely makes you think, but fallers usually fall for a reason. Not always, but usually.

Yup, Kylington was 3-5 before his draft year. Leading up to the draft, people were talking around #15. He went 60th.

Another guy that fell through the year, then went lower than projected was Shinkaruk. People were talking as high as 8-10, but more likely 12-15. He went 24th.

I am not a fan of picking guys that are sliding, as they are trending in the wrong direction. It's a long way from being a good 17 yo to making the NHL - you want guys that are trending in the right direction, not being passed.

GioforPM · 10-03-2020, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yup, Kylington was 3-5 before his draft year. Leading up to the draft, people were talking around #15. He went 60th.

Another guy that fell through the year, then went lower than projected was Shinkaruk. People were talking as high as 8-10, but more likely 12-15. He went 24th.

I am not a fan of picking guys that are sliding, as they are trending in the wrong direction. It's a long way from being a good 17 yo to making the NHL - you want guys that are trending in the right direction, not being passed.

Most of the time. Sometimes, like Saad, it’s due to an injury people aren’t sure of, and it ends up not being a factor. Kopitar fell from top 3 or so to 11. I forget why. Filip Forsberg, Cam Fowler, too. Now those are not huge plummets. Other than Saad.

Harry Lime · 10-03-2020, 12:22 PM

Sometimes a well known scout won't like a player and write up an article that he 'din't like the cut of his jib'. Then others fall in line with the anti-jib cutter rhetoric. That should be even more prevalent in a year like this one where scouts haven't had the opportunity to see everyone. Need more picks!

Enoch Root · 10-03-2020, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Most of the time. Sometimes, like Saad, it’s due to an injury people aren’t sure of, and it ends up not being a factor. Kopitar fell from top 3 or so to 11. I forget why. Filip Forsberg, Cam Fowler, too. Now those are not huge plummets. Other than Saad.

Of course there are examples the other way. And injury seasons are the big caveat.

But as a rule, huge red flag.

GioforPM · 10-03-2020, 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Of course there are examples the other way. And injury seasons are the big caveat.

But as a rule, huge red flag.

I guess the question is - are there guys who were fifth rounders, who’ve moved to the fourth, who should be taken in the third?

IIRC, Gaudreau was taken way earlier than his rankings.

Enoch Root · 10-03-2020, 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I guess the question is - are there guys who were fifth rounders, who’ve moved to the fourth, who should be taken in the third?

IIRC, Gaudreau was taken way earlier than his rankings.

Not sure what you are arguing here.

When you get to the later rounds, projections aren't as acute. There is no difference between being ranked 100 or 130 - they are just guesses at that point. One team is going to like a given player much more than another team, and the 'board' doesn't really apply.

The top 20 or so have much tighter ranges 2-4, 8-12, 15-20 etc

And as far as Gaudreau goes, he and Kucherov were both considered wildcards that would probably go in the 3rd or 4th round (but of course those were just guesses)

AC · 10-03-2020, 12:56 PM

https://twitter.com/user/status/1312444742425223168

12 Seth Jarvis
13 Jack Quinn
14 Rodion Amirov
15 Noel Gunler
16 Dawson Mercer
17 Dylan Holloway
18 Connor Zary
19 Jan Mysak
20 Mavrik Bourque
21 Jacob Perreault
22 Kaiden Guhle
23 Braden Schneider
24 Lukas Reichel
25 Hendrix Lapierre

Textcritic · 10-03-2020, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

The Flames, since day 1, have also been good at drafting and developing small/skilled forwards.
The defensemen often come in the second round. The small/skilled forwards often come in the later rounds.

It doesn't necessarily have to mean that they should take these types of players in the first round though. Does it?

I tend to agree with where you are going, and I don't necessarily subscribe to the "great at drafting defensemen; terrible at drafting forwards" narrative either.

Since Treliving was hired he has drafted four ties in the he first round, and has picked forwards in three of them. Two of those picks were high, and are NHL players—one of which is a star, and arguably the best player on the team. Two fo the three forwards are not characterised as "small/skilled," and the third is still developing and has not made his NHL debut.

Outside of the first round, the Flames have drafted since 2014 22 forwards and seven defensemen. Two of those forwards and three of those defensemen are NHL players, but the caveat here is that the Flames have not drafted a defenseman outside of the first round since 2016. With 12/22 forwards still developing, I don't think the ratios (2:22 and 3:7) are all that accurate since they also work in the other direction: seven of seven defenseman drafted between 2014–this 16 have arguably already set their career potential.

In short, the Flames have definitely had success with defensemen drafted in later rounds, but have also drafted a very small number of defensemen. With the heavy concentration on forwards in the most recent drafts it is still far too early to say that the team is poor in developing forwards, because most of these forwards are still developing. Tracking their success on the basis of the first round is also not helpful since they have made so few first round picks, and also because all those picks look generally good in retrospect.

Rick M. · 10-03-2020, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AC

https://twitter.com/user/status/1312444742425223168

12 Seth Jarvis
13 Jack Quinn
14 Rodion Amirov
15 Noel Gunler
16 Dawson Mercer
17 Dylan Holloway
18 Connor Zary
19 Jan Mysak
20 Mavrik Bourque
21 Jacob Perreault
22 Kaiden Guhle
23 Braden Schneider
24 Lukas Reichel
25 Hendrix Lapierre

Now I’ll have to read up on Mysak!

Hanna Sniper · 10-03-2020, 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Sometimes a well known scout won't like a player and write up an article that he 'din't like the cut of his jib'. Then others fall in line with the anti-jib cutter rhetoric. That should be even more prevalent in a year like this one where scouts haven't had the opportunity to see everyone. Need more picks!

What scouts write articles

Sandman · 10-04-2020, 12:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Before the season started, Kylington was a potential top 3 pick that year on a couple of lists that I saw, and Andersson was a top 8.

I really like Kylington and I hope that the Flames invest some minutes into him, but there is no way that he is even a top 15 or 20 pick - maybe not even in the first round. Andersson I think moved up into the first round in a re-draft, but I don't think he is a top 8 pick at the moment (without even taking a look to compare).

Definitely makes you think, but fallers usually fall for a reason. Not always, but usually.

Yup, most of the time that's absolutely true. Kylington fell in the rankings because he disappointed in his play, while playing healthy. The implication in Barron's case (and in Lapierre's case) is that they didn't perform how they normally would because of injury-and that masks thier true potential.

FCAV · 10-04-2020, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FCAV

Adding to the below list!

Anton Lundell: https://futureconsiderations.ca/pois...-expectations/
Carter Savoie: https://futureconsiderations.ca/savo...nhl-draft-day/
Jean-Luc Foudy: https://futureconsiderations.ca/foud...f-big-brother/
Lucas Raymond: https://futureconsiderations.ca/raym...-draft-season/
Jake Sanderson: https://futureconsiderations.ca/sand...om-nhl-father/
Zion Nybekc: https://futureconsiderations.ca/nybe...etting-season/

And, of course, our Mock Draft: https://futureconsiderations.ca/2020-mock-draft/

Enjoy.

FCAV · 10-04-2020, 10:39 AM

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1qqaaz · 10-04-2020, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yup, Kylington was 3-5 before his draft year. Leading up to the draft, people were talking around #15. He went 60th.

Another guy that fell through the year, then went lower than projected was Shinkaruk. People were talking as high as 8-10, but more likely 12-15. He went 24th.

I am not a fan of picking guys that are sliding, as they are trending in the wrong direction. It's a long way from being a good 17 yo to making the NHL - you want guys that are trending in the right direction, not being passed.

Yamamoto fell to 22, and seems to be a steal.
Same goes for Mantha who fell to 20. Both of these guys were almost point per game players this this. Kyle Connor slipped a bit as well, ended up falling to 17. Led the Jets in points this year.
Kaliyev slid to the 2nd round last year and appears to be one of the biggest steals in a while. Joe Veleno is also looking like a good pick.

I am a fan of picking guys who are sliding if it makes sense. 19 seems to be the perfect spot to do it, really.
I guess the difference is that you, for the most part, just mentioned people who slipped in the rankings during their draft year.
I just mentioned people who slipped on the actual day of the draft.

Textcritic · 10-04-2020, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Yamamoto fell to 22, and seems to be a steal...

How do you figure?

He did not really show any improvement in his Draft+1 season, and was completely underwhelming in the AHL. He went on a 27-game tear this year in which he was shooting at an unheard of and completely unsustainable SP of 0.25. I am still sceptical that he can be a long-term NHL top-six forward; he could just as likely be another Sven Baertschi.

Crown Royal · 10-04-2020, 12:15 PM

If Perreault is drafted by the Flames, I motion for his nickname to be Jimi

Harry Lime · 10-04-2020, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hanna Sniper

What scouts write articles

Sorry, I should have said not team scouts, but local, regional, national, international media scouts. When talking about reputation.