Armchair scouts should be ignored. None of us have a goddamn clue how these 18 year old players will develop. It’s a crap shoot after the top 25.
This might've been true 20 years ago, but these days it’s actually pretty easy to get a rough idea of how players will develop.
Analysts like Bader produce projections, and when those projections are strong, they tend to be right more often than not. NHLe is a real tool—it clearly correlates with future production, even when looked at retroactively.
Many of us here were annoyed when Stromgren was picked over Stankoven, and for good reason. It was pretty clear Stankoven had more upside. The same story is playing out again: Maceo Phillips went just a few spots ahead of Cameron Schmidt in the draft. I personally guarantee that Phillips will project to score more points—whether they play junior or any other level. That’s not a hot take, it’s just the reality the data points to. And of course, I realize that there's more to player values than just production.
There's still lots of time for him to develop, but there are a few publications that seem to have issues with the pick:
The Athletic's Corey Pronman:
Phillips is a huge and highly athletic defenseman. The nearly 6-foot-6 rearguard is quite mobile for his size and is highly physical. He often punishes opponents and can project to make a lot of stops versus men. The issue in Phillips’ game is the lack of puck skills. He struggles to make a basic first pass at the junior level.
The Athletic's Scott Wheeler:
The Mace’o Phillips selection at No. 80 was a head-scratcher for me. I’m sure they see a towering physical menace and special athlete who can move and think he could become a fearsome third-pairing option for them someday. But he really struggles to handle and move the puck and I’ve seen him have too many bad games and moments over the last couple of years to see it. He’s definitely different from the other D they have!
Neutral Zone:
Puck Management Remains a Concern
The most pressing issue with Phillips is his puck security. He averages 5 giveaways per game and completes just 83% of his passes, which is below average for a defenseman who’s not expected to push play offensively. He often forces pucks into traffic or attempts low-percentage passes. As competition gets faster and tighter, these turnovers will be costly.
Later picks are of course a long shot and him being mobile will help his development.
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I think the flames are trying to build longevity in the character and culture within their club at all levels and they are definitely drafting players with high character who seem to be great team guys where ever they’re drafted out of. I think his relationship with Potter at the USA development level and the time he’s spent training in the summer with him may have played a role in this pick and his short comings are teachable if the flames are patient, the fact that he has size and is mobile are big attributes that can lend a hand in him learning the puck management skills he’s lacking in. I’m liking this pick more and more, I’m very excited about Potter and anything to make him even more comfortable settling into the organization is a plus. Bonus points he’s a LHD!
There's still lots of time for him to develop, but there are a few publications that seem to have issues with the pick:
The Athletic's Corey Pronman:
Phillips is a huge and highly athletic defenseman. The nearly 6-foot-6 rearguard is quite mobile for his size and is highly physical. He often punishes opponents and can project to make a lot of stops versus men. The issue in Phillips’ game is the lack of puck skills. He struggles to make a basic first pass at the junior level.
The Athletic's Scott Wheeler:
The Mace’o Phillips selection at No. 80 was a head-scratcher for me. I’m sure they see a towering physical menace and special athlete who can move and think he could become a fearsome third-pairing option for them someday. But he really struggles to handle and move the puck and I’ve seen him have too many bad games and moments over the last couple of years to see it. He’s definitely different from the other D they have!
Neutral Zone:
Puck Management Remains a Concern
The most pressing issue with Phillips is his puck security. He averages 5 giveaways per game and completes just 83% of his passes, which is below average for a defenseman who’s not expected to push play offensively. He often forces pucks into traffic or attempts low-percentage passes. As competition gets faster and tighter, these turnovers will be costly.
Later picks are of course a long shot and him being mobile will help his development.
I've always loved Wheeler's prospect insights, particularly how he championed Dustin Wolf when others like Pronman were skeptical. It's too bad his opinion echoes my own.
I hope this kid works out, maybe in 5 years time we could see him blow up an aging McDavid as he crosses open ice.
If he was a decent puck handler he goes much higher. See Simon Wang who almost went 1st round because he is a 6'7'' that skates well but only put up 2 points in 33 OHL games.
I am not a fan of the stay home d-men picks. IMO the lack of production in lower levels corelates with a lack of hockey IQ/sense that will be exposed at higher levels.
But I do see the vision. If he can put it together to be at least NHL level competency, he could be decent. He is mobile for his size, seems to be good at positioning his body/stick, and a mean streak in him.
Is it likely to happen, maybe not. But odds are probably not too much different from hoping an undersized one dimensional offensive d-man will learn how to play in his own zone enough not to be a liability in the NHL.
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If he was a decent puck handler he goes much higher. See Simon Wang who almost went 1st round because he is a 6'7'' that skates well but only put up 2 points in 33 OHL games.
I am not a fan of the stay home d-men picks. IMO the lack of production in lower levels corelates with a lack of hockey IQ/sense that will be exposed at higher levels.
But I do see the vision. If he can put it together to be at least NHL level competency, he could be decent. He is mobile for his size, seems to be good at positioning his body/stick, and a mean streak in him.
Is it likely to happen, maybe not. But odds are probably not too much different from hoping an undersized one dimensional offensive d-man will learn how to play in his own zone enough not to be a liability in the NHL.
Ya I agree with pretty much all of this, but want to add that his lack of puck skills / lack of offence also means that he has less of an idea of why an opposing player is trying to do what they're doing. Lessening the hockey IQ an absolute tonne.
Knowing why your opponent is doing something is sometimes more valuable than just knowing what they're doing, because then you can counter the plan and not just the instance. And understanding that what/why fast enough to decision make in the NHL is critical for even a 3rd pairing regular these days. As a giant in a league of smalls he isn't going to learn this all on his own, but with good coaching and tutoring he maybe can. It's not a loss, or a waste. It's just a different type of project.
Ya I agree with pretty much all of this, but want to add that his lack of puck skills / lack of offence also means that he has less of an idea of why an opposing player is trying to do what they're doing. Lessening the hockey IQ an absolute tonne.
The reports I've read on him say his hockey IQ is actually a strong point. He's just so unpracticed at handling the puck, his hands can't execute what his brain wants to do.
I hope he's unpracticed rather than just stone-handed. Development can fix particular skills, but clumsy is forever, as I've learned the hard way.
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Flames consult with Danielle Fujita frequently when looking at players, so if the general scouting consensus is that his athleticism makes it likely his skating can improve even more, they may see something here. She’s one that can help that improvement.
I think it was in Tod Button's pre-draft interview that he said they put together their list and have the scouts and coaches make reports on the players. Fujita was specifically mentioned, so I think it's safe to assume that she viewed the player and if they picked him, it was favourable feedback.
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