Responding to every un-advanced stats related comment with some garbage about "hero charts". (or consistently thanking the other dummy who resorts to the same terrible ploy.) Or suggesting that using advanced stats makes one oblivious to any other information like the eye test. Or suggesting that your eye test must be better than my eye test because you are Too Smart for a HERO Chart.
You're the pot calling the kettle black.
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"May those who accept their fate find happiness. May those who defy it find glory."
Was asking why you chalk that up to advanced stats. It's literally the first time I've seen that correlation. The league was shifting younger almost immediately after the lockout in 2004-2005, before the Corsi Craze. I'd say it's a product of that more than anything.
I guarantee I'm older than you.
The shift in age is one thing, but there are still plenty of players who are excellent players who are "older" or past 30. The darling of advanced stats, Patrice Bergeron is an old man at 31. There are plenty of players looking for work that are around his age, put up ok numbers in the regular stats, but don't do well in the advanced stats.
Kris Versteeg is on a PTO. He's a cup winner who puts up points every year and is only 30.
Brandon Pirri, a guy who scored 20 goals a year ago, was a very late signing this year to just $1 million. He's all of 25 years old.
There are plenty of guys who are on PTOs who aren't very good too, but years ago they would have been given a chance on a contract based on having a bounce back year. Digging into their advanced stats tells you they're not good at lots of parts of the game, and they didn't just have a "down year".
It's a tool to dig deeper on a player and determine their underlying value beyond just goals and assists. It is most definitely being used in evaluating how to allocate limited cap space. Who to give the big contracts to and who to give a short term cheap deal to.
I thought this much should be obvious.
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"You know, that's kinda why I came here, to show that I don't suck that much" ~ Devin Cooley, Professional Goaltender
Yeah, I know what advanced stats are and what they do, son. I just haven't seen anything that showed anything new or interesting that actually watching a game or player will improve upon.
It's the very reason why there is a bunch of established veterans who are looking for work right now through a PTO, where as in previous years they would have been given a contract based on reputation and previous accomplishments. It's also why some players are locked up forever at a young age. If you don't think this is happening in every GM office these days, then you're simply not paying attention.
Drafting is much more of a projection and speculation thing. No player at 18 is complete, and they play in leagues where the advanced stats are relatively meaningless. So no, it's not used nearly as much in drafting.
But for NHL player evaluations, advanced stats are playing a bigger and bigger role in the analysis of what a player's strengths and weaknesses are. You still scout the player and watch for what they do in game situations, but the advanced stats are another tool to help you evaluate.
The reason that so many vets are looking for work is that RFA contracts have risen so much that there is no longer cap room for average vets.
It has absolutely nothing to do with advanced stats.
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The reason that so many vets are looking for work is that RFA contracts have risen so much that there is no longer cap room for average vets.
It has absolutely nothing to do with advanced stats.
Why is Kris Russell looking for work?
Only 29 years old
Great Skater
Great Leader
Last three seasons:
> 23 minutes per game
15 goals in 209 games (avg 6 per 82)
67 assists in 209 games (avg 26 per 82)
+2
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"May those who accept their fate find happiness. May those who defy it find glory."
Only 29 years old
Great Skater
Great Leader
Last three seasons:
> 23 minutes per game
15 goals in 209 games (avg 6 per 82)
67 assists in 209 games (avg 26 per 82)
+2
He asked for too much for too long and got squeezed out by younger players already filling up their teams salary cap. You really think any GM and his staff needs advanced stats to tell you Kris Russell is a bottom pair tweeter? Again, yikes.
This Corsi revolution some of you predicted and planned for just hasn't happened I'm sorry to say.
Asking for around 5 million for 23 minutes a game is too much?
Jeff Petry is signed to a 5.5 x 6M deal. Is that also "too much" and if so why did Jeff Petry get his deal?
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Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm
You really think any GM and his staff needs advanced stats to tell you Kris Russell is a bottom pair tweeter?
I think that we got a second round pick (conditional first), a second round drafted prospect, and Jyrki Jokipakka, for a bottom pair tweener.
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"May those who accept their fate find happiness. May those who defy it find glory."
Last edited by GranteedEV; 10-03-2016 at 09:03 PM.
Asking for around 5 million for 23 minutes a game is too much?
Jeff Petry is signed to a 5.5 x 6M deal. Is that also "too much" and if so why did Jeff Petry get his deal?
speaking of cherry-picking
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Asking for around 5 million for 23 minutes a game is too much?
Jeff Petry is signed to a 5.5 x 6M deal. Is that also "too much" and if so why did Jeff Petry get his deal?
I think that we got a second round pick (conditional first), a second round drafted prospect, and Jyrki Jokipakka, for a bottom pair tweener.
I think that we got a second round pick (conditional first), a second round drafted prospect, and Jyrki Jokipakka, for a bottom pair tweener.
Yeah, and?
Quality depth, especially at the blue line is always in high demand for a team that sees themselves as contenders at the deadline. That doesn't change a thing. The trade deadline is also a bit of a crazy bubble year to year, one year Mike Cammalleri is only offered a third round, next year guys like him are flying for good value and it leaves you frustrated about the year before.
You're honestly all over the place here. Advanced stats have a place, from the outside teams place minimal value in it, Flames included. Chris Snow has value but he's low down the totem pole of voices Treliving listens on it seems. It's just more information, but it's hardly the bible itself. Not even close.
Quality depth, especially at the blue line is always in high demand for a team that sees themselves as contenders at the deadline. That doesn't change a thing. The trade deadline is also a bit of a crazy bubble year to year, one year Mike Cammalleri is only offered a third round, next year guys like him are flying for good value and it leaves you frustrated about the year before.
You're honestly all over the place here. Advanced stats have a place, from the outside teams place minimal value in it, Flames included. Chris Snow has value but he's low down the totem pole of voices Treliving listens on it seems.
So you say, but if you look at the construction of a middle-of-pack team today, and a middle-of-pack team even six years ago, there is a difference. You look at certain coaches and the systems/styles of play, and the league is going away from them. You look at the skills expected of defensemen, and they are not the same. The game isn't getting faster naturally. It's getting faster because it's optimal, where before it might have been a luxury reserved for star players.
You are being dense if you don't see the shift the game has experienced away from concepts that were always considered fundamental (glass-and-out being one but not the only) to the extent no one questioned them. I sure didn't. I never thought glass-and-out was a bad play in the past. I thought it was boring but it made sense. I don't feel the same way after more information showed me it's a largely unsuccessful play towards the ultimate goal of driving goal differentials. But according to you, you feel the same way about every fundamental play as you did well before the cap era or the corsi era. Maybe you're just a genius. Or maybe you're stubbornly attached to old concepts that won't go away. I don't know which. But I know there are a lot more people who are flexible to change their mind in the world than total geniuses, and I'd prefer managers be more flexible than someone too stubborn to mend their ways. If the GM is a self-proclaimed genius, then as you are keen to say "yikes".
Quote:
It's just more information, but it's hardly the bible itself.
Why do you push a narrative that it's being portrayed as the bible itself? It's not. It never has. The more you push it, the more of a caricature you continue to be every time you remind me how the hero chart i never looked at is where I get my opinion from.
If you're talking about the article, then it's based on things that the eye test should confirm. Just because the eye test of people with their own set of biases in:
1) Their sample of viewings
2) What they are actually looking at as a valuable element
3) Their feelings based on past accolades and hype
disagrees, does not mean those people have the right to hold their own opinion as the holy grail.
And just because one person's order is not the same as that article's order, does not mean the article is therefore terrible. Player rankings are subjective even if you use stats exclusively because weighting those stats is subjective. If you are mad about how someone values "puck retrieval" or "creating scoring chances" over how they value "willing the team to win" then that's your subjective opinion. But there is no way for you to prove it's not actually you who has the wrong opinion. Especially if you're going to discredit anything of statistical value to make your case.
You need to learn to co-exist with other peoples' opinions. Just because they are using a different set of information from you does not make your opinion better or more informed. Your adversarial approach to the very mention of advanced stats suggests to me you cannot do so however. You must be a genius who has clearly watched, nay, memorized the tens of thousands of hockey games, and the intricate details of the dozens of players within them, that have have been played since or before you opened your CP account. Our resident scouting prodigy, so to speak.
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"May those who accept their fate find happiness. May those who defy it find glory."
Last edited by GranteedEV; 10-03-2016 at 10:41 PM.
I love it when a thread starts on about advanced stats. It always escalates.
My two cents - advanced stats are great as long as people stop using them out of context and stop using them without actually watching the player. People take snippets of certain metrics, and build a story around a player. That is why advanced stats makes some people absolutely cringe at them.
Take Kris Russell. Advanced stats tells you he absolutely sucks and shouldn't be playing hockey, right? Not only that, but he makes other people suck too!
The eye test tells you that Russell is a very competent, defensive defencemen that played on two run-and-gun teams (Flames and Dallas, who basically use the exact same system as Hartley did). Never mind that they system employed isn't one that Russell really fits. Never mind that he is a very good bottom-pairing defencemen who can play top 4 if needed, but is a bottom pairing defencemen.
CORSI is still not a metic I believe in because what does it trying to tell you? It is trying to tell you who possesses the puck more. How does it do so? By shot attempts. That is an indirect way. Why not just measure possession with a stop watch? That would be the direct way. Then measure shot attempts as... hey... how about shot attempts?
Sure, I get that it is simply too hard to pay 2 guys to sit in a game and click on their stop-watches until the game ends. Not feasible. I don't hate CORSI, and many of the other metrics - but it is NOT always accurate, and people use only a few metrics to support their view of a player that the rest of the metrics should tell you is either being sheltered, or playing over his head, and that your eyes tell you that is being misused by the coach, or is playing hobbled, or is trying to over-compensate for a defensive partner, or that is just having a bit of 'poor puckluck'.
I am being completely tongue-in-cheek with PDO. I couldn't agree less that it is the most important stat - or that it is a good one. So you are telling me this is luck-driven statistic that should come down (or up) to an average of 1.00? Hogwash.
If a team is fielding a strong defence, with strong goalies, and playing a sound defensive system, I would expect that SV% to be better than a team with a poor one, no? Also, if my team has a few of the best players in the game - especially snipers who can pick corners and have the speed to beat defencemen, and who employ defencemen who are good passers and have bombs from the point causing chaos in front of the net - I would anticipate that their shooting percentage is higher, no? Wouldn't the best teams overall simply have a better PDO.. you know.. because they are better, and not just 'lucky'?
I do really look forward to advanced stats coming into play within hockey. I think the NHL is JUST starting to get there. CORSI needs to be thrown out with PDO, and actual metrics measuring actual things need to be incorporated. I will love advanced stats then. In the meantime, I will just look them up with a passing interest. We are definitely not there yet. Not by a longshot, IMO.
I love how you always frame your opinions as if they can never be wrong and who doesn't agree with you must not watch Barkov very closely.
I wondered how much those people have watched Barkov. How much have you watched him?
As for me I took him in a pool last year, had NHL game centre and tried to watch the Panthers when I could. Because of that I've probably seen more of Barkov than the average Flames fan. Barkov is a ####ing beast.
I think those who haven't watched Barkov closely may be underrating him and having some Flames homer bias. It happens, its human nature. Monahan is a great young player and so is Barkov. Touting Monahan's slightly superior stats as being enough to prefer him makes me wonder how much people have seen him. Thus my post.
