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Old 04-18-2009, 03:35 PM   #41
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To be honest, I think the most Iran does is fight proxy wars with the West, whether it be support through Hezbollah, Hamas or Iraqi insurgents. They would never let their own name directly be written down as the aggressor.

That said, it's far more likely Iran supports a dirty bomb and gives it to some nut job. Nuclear weapons are far less likely.
An attack by a proxy group supported or funded by Iran is equivalent to a direct attack by Iran.

The timing would just be a slight bit different in terms of whether Iran eats a nuclear bullet right away, or in the time it takes to investigate the attack and then destroy Iran.
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Old 04-18-2009, 03:45 PM   #42
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When's the last time Iran invaded another country or started a war?
If you consider hostile actions backed directly or indirectly by Iranian funding?

July 2006 is when Hezbollah started firing rockets, IIRC. Maybe it was 2007?

That's not the point I was trying to make though. I consider the probability of military nuclear action of any type somewhere in the world to be insanely low. I consider the probability of an attack by an Arab (or other anti-Israeli faction) against Israel to be much higher given the historical factors of the area.

That said, any country which backed such an action would have to realize it would become a glass parking lot less than 24 hours later, so even with the increased chances, I think it is highly unlikely that it will escalate to that point.

Never know when you are dealing with religious (or non religious) crazies though.
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Old 04-18-2009, 04:04 PM   #43
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Israel has never admitted to having a nuclear bomb, however its believed that they have small aircraft carried bombs, cruise missiles and there is also a rumor that they have submarine launched capabilities as well.

Remember that Canada used to have both field deployable and aircraft droppable nuclear weapons, they also had nuclear tipped air to air missiles to deal with Soviet Bombers.

Everyone says that they were disposed of, but the crazy person in me tends to think that in some stockpile we still have a nuclear tipped artillary shell just in case.
I think Israel also has ballistic missiles. As part of an international law course we studied the treaties on the subject.

I always thought that Canada was just storing nukes for the states though, as opposed to actually having their own.
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Old 04-18-2009, 05:34 PM   #44
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Related: Israel stands ready to bomb Iran's Sites.

Not surprising since Iran has repeatedly said that they would wipe Israel off the face of the Earth. A bold faced threat that Israel has taken seriously.

TimesOnline
The Israeli military is preparing itself to launch a massive aerial assault on Iran's nuclear facilities within days of being given the go-ahead by its new government.
Among the steps taken to ready Israeli forces for what would be a risky raid requiring pinpoint aerial strikes are the acquisition of three Airborne Warning and Control (AWAC) aircraft and regional missions to simulate the attack.
Two nationwide civil defence drills will help to prepare the public for the retaliation that Israel could face.
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Old 04-18-2009, 06:17 PM   #45
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I consider the probability of military nuclear action of any type somewhere in the world to be insanely low
8 years ago I would of said the exact same thing about a group of 20 guys pirating 4 airplanes and intentionally targeting civilian buildings with said aircraft.

Its a different world...and the way the Iranians openly support terrorism and especially suicide bombers, I put NOTHING past them.


remember there is 72 (or whatever it is) virgins awaiting everybody involved with obliterating Israel.
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Old 04-18-2009, 07:35 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by blankall View Post
I think Israel also has ballistic missiles. As part of an international law course we studied the treaties on the subject.

I always thought that Canada was just storing nukes for the states though, as opposed to actually having their own.
Nope we actually had them deployed in the field in Europe.

We had and deployed

MB-1 Genie unguided air to air nuclear missile

Mk-28 unguided bomb

Mk-43 500 kt bomb attached to the CF 104

MK-57 47 attached to cf-104

LuLu nuclear depth charges

Bomarc ground to air missile modified to carry the w-40 nuclear warhead

Honest John Surface to Surface missiles outfitted with a variable yield nuclear warhead.
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Old 04-18-2009, 08:30 PM   #47
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Honest John Surface to Surface missiles outfitted with a variable yield nuclear warhead.
Canada has a weapon named "honest john"??

Awesome.
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Old 04-18-2009, 11:31 PM   #48
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Don't even know why they call it isreal, they shud just call it usa junior, you know who calls their shots.

Oh and with the amount of tension in the world between many different countries, and as bad as the economies are it would take one nuke to start WWIII.

We should probably try to avoid it, would be a good idea.
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Old 04-19-2009, 10:54 AM   #49
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Don't even know why they call it isreal, they shud just call it usa junior, you know who calls their shots.

Oh and with the amount of tension in the world between many different countries, and as bad as the economies are it would take one nuke to start WWIII.

We should probably try to avoid it, would be a good idea.
Don't be stupid.

I think when it comes down to it, Israel is as autonomous as they want to be.
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Old 04-19-2009, 12:15 PM   #50
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Don't even know why they call it isreal, they shud just call it usa junior, you know who calls their shots.
Sounds like something someone who knows nothing about Israel would say.
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Old 04-19-2009, 12:17 PM   #51
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Ignorance is bliss

Stupidity is nirvana
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Old 04-19-2009, 12:24 PM   #52
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Canada has a weapon named "honest john"??

Awesome.
Nothing like a nuke to keep someone honest.
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Old 04-19-2009, 12:29 PM   #53
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Oh and with the amount of tension in the world between many different countries, and as bad as the economies are it would take one nuke to start WWIII.

We should probably try to avoid it, would be a good idea.
I disagree.

Well, not exactly, but I don't think the US/China/Russia/India, or any of the other countries in the world with nuclear capabilities would get involved in a nuclear war if Iran hits Israel with a WMD.

God forbid that Israel activates the Samson Doctrine had completely destroys Iran, but even then what does Russia OR China have to gain by getting involved?

They might not be democratic, but they're not suicidal.
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Old 04-19-2009, 12:57 PM   #54
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They might not be democratic, but they're not suicidal.
This doesn't apply to Iran?
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Old 04-19-2009, 01:04 PM   #55
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This doesn't apply to Iran?
Who knows? But if Russia or China were suicidal, we'd know by now.

What we do know is that there is a huge suicidal streak in radical Islam, and a fantastic incentive for martyrdom.
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Old 04-19-2009, 01:26 PM   #56
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This doesn't apply to Iran?
Not necessarily.

Again...they are a country that promotes suicide by the masses in the name of martyrdom...as long as they take those damn infidels with them.

I wouldnt put anything past them.....anything.
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Old 04-19-2009, 02:06 PM   #57
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This conversation is fascinating but downright chilling. I have to admit that I find any prospect of a nuclear exchange with Iran to be an awful outcome.
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Old 04-19-2009, 02:27 PM   #58
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This conversation is fascinating but downright chilling. I have to admit that I find any prospect of a nuclear exchange with Iran to be an awful outcome.
I find a nuclear exchange of any kind to be an awful outcome, even one in the form of a dirty bomb on the streets of New York.

Which is a very real threat in this day and age.

MAD is a good doctrine if we're talking about China/India/Russia, but not such a good doctrine when we're talking about terrorist groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, Al Queda, etc, etc.

These are people that strap a thousand ball bearings onto their chest and blow themselves up.

Having a choice between doing that and killing 10 people, and setting off a nuclear weapon in a city somewhere, I think we all know what they would pick.
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Old 04-19-2009, 02:31 PM   #59
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This conversation is fascinating but downright chilling. I have to admit that I find any prospect of a nuclear exchange with Iran to be an awful outcome.
60+ years ago Japan had the same type of attitude as Iran seemingly has now, A country filled with hatred and no conscience for human life. A couple of small bombs later they are now fine outstanding citizens of the world.

Sad to say but maybe the radicals need a wake up call.
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Old 04-19-2009, 02:35 PM   #60
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Not necessarily.

Again...they are a country that promotes suicide by the masses in the name of martyrdom...as long as they take those damn infidels with them.

I wouldnt put anything past them.....anything.
Sure they promote suicide and martyrdom, but only among the poor and the gullible. Those guys in power aren't actually going to die for the cause or sacrifice anything. They aren't going to commit suicide by firing a nuke anywhere.

They are the Iranian version of the chickenhawks. They talk a big game and have no qualms sending other people into harm's way, but they'll be damned if they are going to do it themselves. Hell, look how old they all are.

That being said, I don't want them armed either, but if they get a bomb, they aren't going to just fire away, as the suggestion seems to be.
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