New poll: Harper - Conservatives headed for third place next election?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Rob ####ing Anders got re-elected how many times? And he would have again if he didn't get the boot in a nomination battle. Alberta still figures to send 90% or more of its MPs into Ottawa as CPCers.

[AcGold]

Well I seriously hope you guys are wrong. He wants to spend 2 billion on new prisons in 5 years instead of you know, not locking people up. I can't stand the guy anymore, wants to double down on a drug policy that scientifically has been proven to not work.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by AcGold

You know a PM sucks when his hometown populace hates him. Can't wait until he's gone, he's moving the country backwards with a strongarm. If he gets re elected I am claiming shenanigans.

Source? Not asking to be a dick, I mean seriously. That's a pretty ludicrous statement. Pretty sure the CPC will sweep Calgary and most of Alberta.

[J epworth]

Originally Posted by AcGold

You know a PM sucks when his hometown populace hates him. Can't wait until he's gone, he's moving the country backwards with a strongarm. If he gets re elected I am claiming shenanigans.

He's still very strong in Alberta, right now Cons would probably still get almost every seat in Alberta. What's surprising is how split BC is right now. October polls show pretty even split across NDP, Lib and Conservative, could probably end up having a bunch of Conservative seats there as well from vote splitting:

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Source? Not asking to be a dick, I mean seriously. That's a pretty ludicrous statement. Pretty sure the CPC will sweep Calgary and most of Alberta.

I think that is mostly true. I'm not sure whether the NDP keeps their seat in Edmonton (and in general I have no idea how popular that MP is). I also think that in Calgary the Liberals win at least one, potentially as many as three seats.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by peter12

When people say the Conservatives have chosen ideology over pragmatism too many times, I wonder what they actually mean.

I thought back to when I made that post. The unwavering support of Israel and mandatory minimum sentencing for pot crimes comes to mind.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by AcGold

You know a PM sucks when his hometown populace hates him. Can't wait until he's gone, he's moving the country backwards with a strongarm. If he gets re elected I am claiming shenanigans.

http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/more/poll-results

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by Slava

I think that is mostly true. I'm not sure whether the NDP keeps their seat in Edmonton (and in general I have no idea how popular that MP is).

It could swing, but in general I think its pretty safe. This just coming from having lived in that riding for 3 years (until very recently). Left leaning, and Linda (Duncan) has done a pretty good job, I think is the general vibe, whether or not you are a hardcore NDP supporter or not. Also, not a huge impact, but provincially the riding includes Rachel Notley's turf...Rachel has very strong support there, and has an extremely strong vibe of respect for Rachel whether you love or hate the NDP. Likely siphons at least a few votes her way.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by J epworth kendal

He's still very strong in Alberta, right now Cons would probably still get almost every seat in Alberta. What's surprising is how split BC is right now. October polls show pretty even split across NDP, Lib and Conservative, could probably end up having a bunch of Conservative seats there as well from vote splitting:

I thought I would comment on this as any evidence of a sweep. This includes all of the ridings that they will win with like 75% of the vote without even trying. It skews that support into ridings where it will be tight and they could lose. It's basically about concentration of the vote, and ridings like Linda Duncan, Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation and such aren't going to show as a factor in the province as a whole. The thing is though, it's not a single election. Election day is essentially 308 separate elections all at once. That's why these numbers are mostly meaningless.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Slava

The thing is though, it's not a single election. Election day is essentially 308 338 separate elections all at once. That's why these numbers are mostly meaningless.

Fyp

[J epworth]

Originally Posted by Slava

I thought I would comment on this as any evidence of a sweep. This includes all of the ridings that they will win with like 75% of the vote without even trying. It skews that support into ridings where it will be tight and they could lose. It's basically about concentration of the vote, and ridings like Linda Duncan, Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation and such aren't going to show as a factor in the province as a whole. The thing is though, it's not a single election. Election day is essentially 308 separate elections all at once. That's why these numbers are mostly meaningless.

Well ya, I would hope people would be able to interpret national polls understanding that they don't correlate to individual ridings, but more give a snapshot of a regions voting intent at that time.

Probably should have used this graphic instead from threehundredeight.com, they use the aggregate of national polls and weighs them by sample size, then looks at how they would extrapolate into actual riding wins with information like you said, where concentration of vote would show differently than the regional average. Here's what they came up with for how the October polls would translate to seats:



So like I said in my original post, Conservatives would still get almost every seat in Alberta at this time.

[cal_guy]

Originally Posted by RyZ

Putting Trudeau in office is closer to when Schwarzenegger or Ventura got in down in the US than an actual politician that is ready and equipped to run a first world nation.

It's like a popularity contest in high school. Usually the good looking dummy is at the top of the heap.

That being said, I think there is about a 0% chance that the Conservatives finish 3rd. They will be a strong official opposition at worst with an outside chance at another minority ruling government.

When Harper became PM he was a MP for 2636 days, and his most notable employment outside of politics was in a corporate back office and a conservative think tank. Trudeau will have been a MP for 2561 days by the 2015 elections. His most notable employment was as a teacher.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Fyp

Aren't there 308 seats, or are they adding 30 this time?

[Maccalus]

A bunch of seats are being added for next election

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Slava

Aren't there 308 seats, or are they adding 30 this time?

Yea, they look at it every 10 years and make changes when the population has changed enough.
http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx...t=index&lang=e

It would be nice if we could just move seats around but the constitution has some quirks in it with senator/mp ratios and Quebec percentages, the end result is 30 more politicians in the next house.

[driveway]

While I lived in Canada, I wanted a Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition government. It's the most representative of the viewpoints of Canadians as a whole.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by driveway

While I lived in Canada, I wanted a Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition government. It's the most representative of the viewpoints of Canadians as a whole.

Pick any 3 of the 4 and you could say the same thing. Doesn't mean it's a good thing.

[waner]

Originally Posted by driveway

While I lived in Canada, I wanted a Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition government. It's the most representative of the viewpoints of Canadians as a whole.

That sounds like the "most representative" of what you want Canada to be as it isn't close to representative of the viewpoints of Canada as a whole.

[Stay Golden]

With fluff Trudeau or the NDP say goodbye to the current amount of Military budget and much high amounts of transfer payments from Alberta directly to QC and ON coffers.

[killer_carlson]

With Trudeau my fear is that there will be a wealth re-distribution in the country, but it will not be through transfer payments. It will be done through an environmental tax which focuses only on specific pollutions or industries, and ignores others. Example, carbon emissions but ignores water pollution in the great lakes.