I spoke to some people from Three Hills who say PP won’t win that riding a second time because they got a close-up look at his representative skills.
That will never happen. As hilarious as it would be, that riding is one of the safest ever, and there is no chance that anyone other than the Conservative wins (unless there is another conservative party that appears)
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What if they keep Poilievre and we end up with a spring election though? That seems like it’s in the cards, and basically Carney would mop the floor with the CPC at this point.
I don’t think there’s a new leader the could get any traction in the next 3 months and make a difference right now / stop the mopping
The “best” deterent / risk to the Liberals for a spring election is PP and the economy tanking . It allows PP to play the “see I told you all what would happen “ card.
It’s the only Hail Mary I see no matter how low the odds of it working in the short/mid term
If there’s economy doesn’t implode there’s zero chance the CPC gain any seats no matter who’s in charge IMO
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I don’t think there’s a new leader the could get any traction in the next 3 months and make a difference right now / stop the mopping
The “best” deterent / risk to the Liberals for a spring election is PP and the economy tanking . It allows PP to play the “see I told you all what would happen “ card.
It’s the only Hail Mary I see no matter how low the odds of it working in the short/mid term
If there’s economy doesn’t implode there’s zero chance the CPC gain any seats no matter who’s in charge IMO
I think they're cooked with Poilievre. The reality is that too many Canadians see him as too aligned with Trump/MAGA. I think that his best shot was last spring, and his fumbling of that is going to be studied in political science for decades because of the sheer ineptitude.
I have no doubt he survives this weekend, and I'm interested to see the CPC caucus after that, because I have a feeling that there are more MPs ready to leave the party.
That will never happen. As hilarious as it would be, that riding is one of the safest ever, and there is no chance that anyone other than the Conservative wins (unless there is another conservative party that appears)
Right, they plan on re-electing the guy who stepped down for PP. He had to stand right beside their wonderful leader and feed him an answer to every question pertaining to local issues.
Ford will not run for the CPC while Carney is there and doing well. I don't think Ontario has the same number as deplorables as Alberta, but I could be wrong. In any event the sheer size of the population allows their voices to be drowned out easier.
I had also heard musings that a number of MPs are seeing how the leadership review turns out before deciding to jump ship or not. In a sense, I think a floor cross to Carney is an easy sell to constituents, we don't want Maple Maga, separatists running the country and most of Carney's actions have been right out of the CPC policy manual or a better policy. Carney being globally praised for his speech in Davos is probably helpful as well. Can you imagine PP being invited to speak? Nevermind what dribble may slop out of his face.
I would take that Abacus data with a bit of a grain of salt. Other pollsters aren't seeing the same thing, and even Abacus' data is shifting wildly. Here's January:
Overall: LPC: 40; CPC: 40
18-29: LPC: 25; CPC: 50
But then here's December:
Overall: LPC: 41; CPC; 41
18-29: LPC: 39; CPC: 39
I have trouble believing that the 18-29 numbers shifted by 25 points while the overall was essentially identical between the two polls.
Basically every other quality pollster that breaks it out by age shows the Conservatives' primary demographic being middle aged people. U30 or U35 are split pretty evenly and seniors lean Liberal.
Just as an addendum, Abacus just released a new poll now showing the Liberals with a significant lead among 18-29 year olds:
Overall: LPC: 43; CPC: 39
18-29: LPC: 43; CPC: 35
Obviously there wasn't actually a 33 point swing in that age demographic over the last couple of weeks, so it's a good reminder to avoid reading too much into cross-tabs from single polls.
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Right, they plan on re-electing the guy who stepped down for PP. He had to stand right beside their wonderful leader and feed him an answer to every question pertaining to local issues.
Definitely feel bad for that riding. It’s a hardcore conservative stronghold, but they really liked the guy PP replaced. Well known guy and great in the community. This was closer to when PP was parachuted in, but basically nobody seemed to respect him or really want him there.
I think they're cooked with Poilievre. The reality is that too many Canadians see him as too aligned with Trump/MAGA. I think that his best shot was last spring, and his fumbling of that is going to be studied in political science for decades because of the sheer ineptitude.
I have no doubt he survives this weekend, and I'm interested to see the CPC caucus after that, because I have a feeling that there are more MPs ready to leave the party.
Rational National had a pretty good review of PP's leadership. Obviously he is biased against PP but he takes the time to objectively show PP's hypocrisy and failings over and over again.
If you guys do not want to watch the video, the highlight is that PP sucks and is actually wearing orange makeup to look more like Trump (makeup section starts at 1:25). With everything Trump is doing, how dumb does PP and the CPC have to be to think that this is a good idea?
What if they keep Poilievre and we end up with a spring election though? That seems like it’s in the cards, and basically Carney would mop the floor with the CPC at this point.
I really don't think it is. Carney might get enough crossers to make a majority and I doubt there is any real appetite for an election from anyone. Carney can govern effectively right now, and all the opposition parties (except maybe the Bloc) have thus far only had performative opposition... I mean have we forgotten Sheer sprinting into the chamber to vote "no" on the budget only after it was clear that it would pass? At least a year left in this government I wager barring some extreme swing in the polling environment.
I really don't think it is. Carney might get enough crossers to make a majority and I doubt there is any real appetite for an election from anyone. Carney can govern effectively right now, and all the opposition parties (except maybe the Bloc) have thus far only had performative opposition... I mean have we forgotten Sheer sprinting into the chamber to vote "no" on the budget only after it was clear that it would pass? At least a year left in this government I wager barring some extreme swing in the polling environment.
I think Carney waits for the US midterms. If they actually happen....
If there is a blue wave and the US government starts shifting back to some semblance of sanity and rebuilding checks and balances around the blob then Carney may feel that there is no real need for an early election and he can keep going as-is toward an Oct 2029 election.
If they skip the midterms or if somehow the blue wave doesn't happen then it may be a good idea to call a snap election, get a majority government, and reset the clock on when his next election needs to be.
Thanks to America's actions over the last year it is very likely that a global recession (or depression) is on the horizon. Carney has made it clear that he is working hard on trade alliances away from America in order to insulate Canada from the impacts of an American economic collapse. He is also working to align more defense pacts with the EU to help protect our sovereignty.
If Carney decides to call an election, a spring 2027 election would shift the current next election date from Oct 2029 to 2031. This would effectively buy Carney a couple more years to govern as the CPC will still be a PP-led disaster and the NDP will likely still be a mess trying to figure out how to get in touch with voters.
I suspect there could be a few Conservatives waiting to see how this convention leadership show plays out, and if it looks like more of the same may cross the floor after. It seems reasonable for them to give that process a chance, but also see the writing on the wall and want to save their own seat by making a majority, giving them a few years of security.
It’s a good thing, for Canada, to have good leadership right now that is supported by the majority. We just need to convert some of the leadership and rhetoric now with action. Maybe this country can actually get something done. It’d be great if Ford took the CPC leadership and then worked with Carney to get #### done.
I suspect there could be a few Conservatives waiting to see how this convention leadership show plays out, and if it looks like more of the same may cross the floor after. It seems reasonable for them to give that process a chance, but also see the writing on the wall and want to save their own seat by making a majority, giving them a few years of security.
I doubt any of the MPs have any illusions as to how these party conferences are going to go. They are built to be inaccessible and to allow the backroom deals to control the party.
The only way PP gets removed as leader is if the backroom decides they would rather move ahead with someone else like Kenney or whoever they think could match up against Carney.
Otherwise, it is going to come down to a caucus vote when they get back to Ottawa and then the MPs could band together and oust PP. This is what the Liberal caucus threatened to do to Trudeau before he agreed to step down.
It’s a good thing, for Canada, to have good leadership right now that is supported by the majority. We just need to convert some of the leadership and rhetoric now with action. Maybe this country can actually get something done. It’d be great if Ford took the CPC leadership and then worked with Carney to get #### done.
I think that’s the only play for the CPC at this point if they don’t want to risk sinking to a 2011 LPC level of irrelevancy.
I doubt any of the MPs have any illusions as to how these party conferences are going to go. They are built to be inaccessible and to allow the backroom deals to control the party.
The only way PP gets removed as leader is if the backroom decides they would rather move ahead with someone else like Kenney or whoever they think could match up against Carney.
Otherwise, it is going to come down to a caucus vote when they get back to Ottawa and then the MPs could band together and oust PP. This is what the Liberal caucus threatened to do to Trudeau before he agreed to step down.
I guess I muddled my thoughts a bit. They would do it to present the image that they were patient, and waited to see the direction of the party. It's an easy talking point to shut down criticism in the post-floor crossing interviews, and serves to further drive nails into the corpse of the CPC coffin and their unwavering support of PP. I think it's a smart PR move, if nothing else. I guess it's what I would do if I were in that situation.
I think Carney waits for the US midterms. If they actually happen....
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Not sure what happens here if there’s no election.
Congressmen/women only have a 2 year term. If there’s no election, the majority of them will cease to hold office because their terms are up. That means there’s really no House anymore outside of off year elected officials.
In the Senate, there are more Republican seats up for grabs than Dems. So if there’s no election, all seats up for grabs are gone. Which places the Senate in control of the dems.
With everything Trump is doing, how dumb does PP and the CPC have to be to think that this is a good idea?
