[PGT] How to tank without making it too obvious, 4-2 loss

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Bahl’s been fine but he kind of has the Zadorov problem where he can fill in on the second pair but you probably want someone better if you’re trying to do some damage. And then if he’s on the third pair he’ll probably be too expensive or maybe you want to keep that spot for someone who’s developing. But he certainly looks like an NHLer.

I was thinking you were being a bit unfair to Bahl, but then I went and looked at his season...

Kevin Bahl:

CF%: 43.27
SF%: 45.5
GF%: 60
xGF%: 46.86
SCF%: 46.46

That's not pretty (also, Raz is surprisingly terrible by all these metrics as well).

That's a bad pairing that is outperforming their underlying numbers. Once that comes back to Earth, the Flames are really going to struggle.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

That's a bad pairing that is outperforming their underlying numbers. Once that comes back to Earth, the Flames are really going to struggle.

You can pretty much say the same for every line and pairing on the team. It's not a knock on Bahl particularly.

And behold, in the last few games the Flames as a team have come back to Earth, and they really are struggling.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I was thinking you were being a bit unfair to Bahl, but then I went and looked at his season...

Kevin Bahl:

CF%: 43.27
SF%: 45.5
GF%: 60
xGF%: 46.86
SCF%: 46.46

That's not pretty (also, Raz is surprisingly terrible by all these metrics as well).

That's a bad pairing that is outperforming their underlying numbers. Once that comes back to Earth, the Flames are really going to struggle.

I’ll be honest. I have no idea what those stats mean. But via my eyes I have thought the following:

- Andersson is having a great start to the year. Probably our best dman. Arguably best player.

- Bahl missed all of training camp but got up to speed quite quickly. He’s a physical force but not as much of a roller coaster as Big Z was. Great pickup by Conman. I would put him as our 3rd or 4th dman. He’s probably better than Pachal and Miromanov at this point. Gets a bit better each game as the rust falls off.

[Ryan Coke]

So I had to go look at those first 2 goals, because I don’t remember Bahl being the issue in either of those.

First goal he’s behind the net, puts it up the wall towards Anderson, he loses the board battle and Draisaitl is alone in front. Bahl realizes after he moves the puck that he got left alone alone and tries to get there, too late. I originally thought it was Anderssons fault, but watching again it was Backlund that skates right by Drai in the slot while both D were along the boards. Absolutely not Bahls fault.

Second goal there is a turnover on the opposite side of the ice from Bahl, he hustles back to take out the Oiler with the partial break, the trailer gets it while Anderson lost a step to him on the way back. He was ahead of him at center ice, but didn’t come back hard enough.

Again, Bahl was the guy who recovered and took away the scoring chance form the guy who got behind coverage on the turnover, Andersson was slow to get back.

I’ve been very impressed by Bahl so far.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I was thinking you were being a bit unfair to Bahl, but then I went and looked at his season...

Kevin Bahl:

CF%: 43.27
SF%: 45.5
GF%: 60
xGF%: 46.86
SCF%: 46.46

That's not pretty (also, Raz is surprisingly terrible by all these metrics as well).

That's a bad pairing that is outperforming their underlying numbers. Once that comes back to Earth, the Flames are really going to struggle.

I think you need to look at relative numbers on a team that gets out played on average every night.

There is only one defenseman above the 50% expected goal mark that has played the majority of games, and that's Pachal who has had the easiest matchups (third pairing).

(Been and Barrie positive but with less than half the games for each).

Relative xGF%
Pachal +9.97%
Andersson -0.85%
Bahl -2.68%
Miromanov -5.82%
Weegar -4.74%

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think you need to look at relative numbers on a team that gets out played on average every night.

There is only one defenseman above the 50% expected goal mark that has played the majority of games, and that's Pachal who has had the easiest matchups (third pairing).

(Been and Barrie positive but with less than half the games for each).

Relative xGF%
Pachal +9.97%
Andersson -0.85%
Bahl -2.68%
Miromanov -5.82%
Weegar -4.74%

People keep looking at stats without looking at the placement on the team.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Ryan Coke

So I had to go look at those first 2 goals, because I don’t remember Bahl being the issue in either of those.

First goal he’s behind the net, puts it up the wall towards Anderson, he loses the board battle and Draisaitl is alone in front. Bahl realizes after he moves the puck that he got left alone alone and tries to get there, too late. I originally thought it was Anderssons fault, but watching again it was Backlund that skates right by Drai in the slot while both D were along the boards. Absolutely not Bahls fault.

Second goal there is a turnover on the opposite side of the ice from Bahl, he hustles back to take out the Oiler with the partial break, the trailer gets it while Anderson lost a step to him on the way back. He was ahead of him at center ice, but didn’t come back hard enough.

Again, Bahl was the guy who recovered and took away the scoring chance form the guy who got behind coverage on the turnover, Andersson was slow to get back.

I’ve been very impressed by Bahl so far.

First goal I see it differently. Backlund runs a normal C breakout kids, appropriate for a play starting with Bahl having possession, and not in bad position for supporting a board battle. Bahl is caught admiring and following the puck he puts up the boards.

Under what circumstance do you ever want both D on the same wall? This is stuff you teach kids before they turn 10

Second goal, fine. He is looking to skate through him and the guy spins off him.

The guy is 24. At his point in development you expect mistakes. Not sure why we can’t admit when he makes one

[Ryan Coke]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

The guy is 24. At his point in development you expect mistakes. Not sure why we can’t admit when he makes one

I have no problem admitting when an individual player makes mistakes, I have no emotional attachement to any of them. I’m just basing it off of what actually happened on the ice. I’m not looking to make excuses or lay blame on anyone specifically.

I like both Rasmus and Backs, I have nothing against either player. It’s just that on those 2 plays specifically, Bahl didn’t carry any direct responsibility to the breakdown.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Ryan Coke

I have no problem admitting when an individual player makes mistakes, I have no emotional attachement to any of them. I’m just basing it off of what actually happened on the ice. I’m not looking to make excuses or lay blame on anyone specifically.

I like both Rasmus and Backs, I have nothing against either player. It’s just that on those 2 plays specifically, Bahl didn’t carry any direct responsibility to the breakdown.

Except lollygagging and admiring his pass while Draisaitl is alone in front. That’s his man. That’s his mistake

2 D being on the outside of a faceoff dot is indisputably bad positioning

[Ryan Coke]

Hilariously inaccurate, but you seem emotionally invested in blaming him so go for it.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Ryan Coke

Hilariously inaccurate, but you seem emotionally invested in blaming him so go for it.

No, I just laugh at how bizarre it is, him being untouchable
Shiny new toys and all I suppose

[Bingo]

I think Bahl was in the wrong spot.

He should have gone to the net after rimming it.

Backlund likely leaked a bit too given Bahl was int he corner and he was the third player on slot coverage duty.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

People keep looking at stats without looking at the placement on the team.

The two most important stats, IMO, are pucks flying towards our net or their net?

On-Ice Shot %

Weegar 56%
Barrie 56%
Miromanov 52%
Pachal 49%
Andersson 44%
Bean 44%
Bahl 39%

Pucks are flying towards our net more than their net when Bahl is out there, relative to all our d-men on the ice.

And, do we expect to score or be scored on when that player is on the ice?

Relative Expected Goals%

Barrie 17.4%
Weegar 5.7%
Pachal 0%
Bean -3.3%
Miromanov -6.8%
Andersson -8%
Bahl -17%

We can expect more goals against than for when Bahl's is on the ice, versus when any other d-man is on the ice. By a large margin.

Granted, as I think Enoch or Jay pointed out earlier, quality of competition matters and from what I can tell Bahl and Andersson have the highest QoC out of all the d-men. They have the toughest matchups. Does Barrie's 17% mean he's the best d-man on the team? Hell no. He's getting fed easy o-zone starts and soft competition and limited ice time.

It seems to me that they see a lot of potential in Bahl, but that he's currently quite a bit over his head. I would note his stats have tanked from NJ as well, again probably because he's now on a far weaker team with tougher matchups and being relied on much more heavily.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by heep223

The two most important stats, IMO, are pucks flying towards our net or their net?

On-Ice Shot %

Weegar 56%
Barrie 56%
Miromanov 52%
Pachal 49%
Andersson 44%
Bean 44%
Bahl 39%

Pucks are flying towards our net more than their net when Bahl is out there, relative to all our d-men on the ice.

And, do we expect to score or be scored on when that player is on the ice?

Relative Expected Goals%

Barrie 17.4%
Weegar 5.7%
Pachal 0%
Bean -3.3%
Miromanov -6.8%
Andersson -8%
Bahl -17%

We can expect more goals against than for when Bahl's is on the ice, versus when any other d-man is on the ice. By a large margin.

Granted, as I think Enoch or Jay pointed out earlier, quality of competition matters and from what I can tell Bahl and Andersson have the highest QoC out of all the d-men. They have the toughest matchups. Does Barrie's 17% mean he's the best d-man on the team? Hell no. He's getting fed easy o-zone starts and soft competition and limited ice time.

It seems to me that they see a lot of potential in Bahl, but that he's currently quite a bit over his head. I would note his stats have tanked from NJ as well, again probably because he's now on a far weaker team with tougher matchups and being relied on much more heavily.

Are you using all scenarios?

Because that is going to create a very flawed metric because Bahl plays no PP time, but lots of PK time.

Using even strength metrics from Natural Stat Trick:

xGF% Relative:

Pachal: 7.11
Barrie: 4.32
Bahl: 1.39
Hanley: -0.54
Andersson: -0.92
Bean: -1.07
Miromanov: -4.15
Weegar: -5.67

GF% Relative:

Bahl: 12.42
Andersson: 11.21
Weegar: -2.94
Bean: -4.55
Miromanov: -7.14
Pachal: -10.48
Barrie: -23.81
Hanley: -37.50

Corsi For% Relative:

Weegar: 6.10
Hanley: 5.17
Miromanov: 4.96
Pachal: 4.77
Barrie: 0.13
Bean: -1.07
Andersson: -6.21
Bahl: -8.37

So this to me aligns with his play from New Jersey. They tend to bleed shot volume, but very little quality and his xGF generally greatly outperforms his Corsi.

Corsi For: 43.51% (8th)
Shots For: 45.34% (6th)
Expected GF: 51.23% (3rd)
Goals For: 59.09 (1st)

He's also doing it in tougher minutes and tougher matchups in his pairing with Andersson.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Are you using all scenarios?

Because that is going to create a very flawed metric because Bahl plays no PP time, but lots of PK time.

Using even strength metrics from Natural Stat Trick:

xGF% Relative:

Pachal: 7.11
Barrie: 4.32
Bahl: 1.39
Hanley: -0.54
Andersson: -0.92
Bean: -1.07
Miromanov: -4.15
Weegar: -5.67

GF% Relative:

Bahl: 12.42
Andersson: 11.21
Weegar: -2.94
Bean: -4.55
Miromanov: -7.14
Pachal: -10.48
Barrie: -23.81
Hanley: -37.50

Corsi For% Relative:

Weegar: 6.10
Hanley: 5.17
Miromanov: 4.96
Pachal: 4.77
Barrie: 0.13
Bean: -1.07
Andersson: -6.21
Bahl: -8.37

So this to me aligns with his play from New Jersey. They tend to bleed shot volume, but very little quality and his xGF generally greatly outperforms his Corsi.

Corsi For: 43.51% (8th)
Shots For: 45.34% (6th)
Expected GF: 51.23% (3rd)
Goals For: 59.09 (1st)

He's also doing it in tougher minutes and tougher matchups in his pairing with Andersson.

Oh man, yes, that's a great point...I forgot to adjust from all scenarios

It still looks not great, but it looks way less bad and can be accounted for due to the harder competition for that pair

Thanks for pointing that out

On another note, randomly saw that he has the highest missed net % out of all the D....hit the net ya bum!

[HighLifeMan]

Yeah - simply posting those stats without taking into account his matchups and zone starts is essentially meaningless. Kevin Bahl is averaging just over one offensive zone start a game on a team that has clearly implemented a system that prioritizes limiting high danger chances against. We allow the 7th fewest HDCA/60 in the league at five on five, despite giving up the 7th most shots against/60, and the 7th most CA/60. Huska seems more than content on allowing the opposition to have puck possession so long as the middle of the ice is being protected.

[Wastedyouth]

On this near lowest in the league salaried team we are seeing everyone a line or two above their abilities and is going to cause them to struggle.

There is one line that plays where it should be (and arguably probably needs to play more) and that's Backlunds line.

This is a one line team who's one line is a third line on a good team.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

On this near lowest in the league salaried team we are seeing everyone a line or two above their abilities and is going to cause them to struggle.

There is one line that plays where it should be (and arguably probably needs to play more) and that's Backlunds line.

This is a one line team who's one line is a third line on a good team.

I don’t think that’s totally accurate, but pretty close.

Zary, Kadri, Kuzmenko, Huberdeau, Pospisil and Sharangovich are all 2nd liners. But we have no 1st line, so 2/3 are always one line too high. Mantha, Coronato, Backlund, and Coleman are all 3rd liners, so that’s great, but one of them often ends up in the top 6 or the entire line gets deployed like a top 6, which is a problem.

Same at D. Two first pairing guys, and then a bunch of third pairing guys, and the two 1st pairing guys are never paired together so a third pairing guy is always 1-2 lines higher.

We’re not a one line team. We’re a team with depth but no top F line and no second D pairing for that depth to support.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I was thinking you were being a bit unfair to Bahl, but then I went and looked at his season...

Kevin Bahl:

CF%: 43.27
SF%: 45.5
GF%: 60
xGF%: 46.86
SCF%: 46.46

That's not pretty (also, Raz is surprisingly terrible by all these metrics as well).

That's a bad pairing that is outperforming their underlying numbers. Once that comes back to Earth, the Flames are really going to struggle.

He's got a long way to go but he's showing a lot of promise at a position and in a role that takes a while to master. Nobody is going to have great underlying numbers on this team or any true rebuild I don't suspect.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by heep223

Oh man, yes, that's a great point...I forgot to adjust from all scenarios

It still looks not great, but it looks way less bad and can be accounted for due to the harder competition for that pair

Thanks for pointing that out

On another note, randomly saw that he has the highest missed net % out of all the D....hit the net ya bum!

To me this is the most important of the three ...

xGF% Relative:

Pachal: 7.11
Barrie: 4.32
Bahl: 1.39
Hanley: -0.54
Andersson: -0.92
Bean: -1.07
Miromanov: -4.15
Weegar: -5.67

Where Bahl looks really good.

Goal splits are where rubber hits the road, but so many other factors come into it.

And corsi splits are too generic without any definition in quality.