American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Old Yeller]

I still wonder about Nikki Haley's impact, only because she was still getting ~10% of the vote in primaries well after she dropped out and Trump's campaign never reached out to her afterwards to help campaign.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

That's just it - the Dem advantage in the mail-in & early vote that we saw in 2020 is not showing this time. So in light of that fact, a 58%-32% lead in the first 1.6 million votes is a good sign for Harris.

What do you mean? That just sounds like circular logic. Fewer Democrats are voting by mail in Pennsylvania so it's not a big deal that fewer Democrats are voting by mail? I mean, how is this evidence of Harris outperforming Biden in Pennsylvania:

2020 mail-in affiliation: 68-22 for Democrats

2022 mail-in affiliation: 71-21 for Democrats

2024 mail-in affiliation: 58-32 for Democrats

Yes, there are lots of moving parts there with COVID being partisan and Republicans encouraging more mail-in votes this time. And that's my point; you can't really draw a whole lot from the numbers. But what evidence we do have doesn't seem like it would suggest that Harris is outperforming Biden, at least based on mail-in votes.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by opendoor

What do you mean? That just sounds like circular logic. Fewer Democrats are voting by mail in Pennsylvania so it's not a big deal that fewer Democrats are voting by mail? I mean, how is this evidence of Harris outperforming Biden in Pennsylvania:

2020 mail-in affiliation: 68-22 for Democrats

2022 mail-in affiliation: 71-21 for Democrats

2024 mail-in affiliation: 58-32 for Democrats

Yes, there are lots of moving parts there with COVID being partisan and Republicans encouraging more mail-in votes this time. And that's my point; you can't really draw a whole lot from the numbers. But what evidence we do have doesn't seem like it would suggest that Harris is outperforming Biden, at least based on mail-in votes.

I'm not looking at just the mail-in votes. I'm looking at the aggregate of mail-in and early in-person votes.

[puffnstuff]

Mail in voting from 2020 should not be used as a comparison, the numbers from that Covid election are skewed. Unless its an all mail state, like Oregon is.
Nevada numbers will also miss a lot of new voters, as they no longer make them declare D or R, so the independent numbers are huge there.

I will say there have been a number of gop folks, and electeds, saying they will be voting for Harris but no Dems coming out for trump, unless you count fake a dem like gabbard.

[ResAlien]

It’s alright guys I kind of feel that we should let everyone hold on to whatever sliver of hope they have right now. Over the next five days a lot of people are going to become so incredibly unhinged that maybe some small amount of hope can keep them from totally losing their minds.

Remember this is probably the last 5 days a lot of us have on planet earth. Honestly I wouldn’t even bother paying my mortgage this month because it’s all going right down the pooper soon

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

I'm not looking at just the mail-in votes. I'm looking at the aggregate of mail-in and early in-person votes.

I'm not sure what you mean, there is no early in-person voting in Pennsylvania. Technically you can go to a government office, fill out a form to request a mail-in ballot, fill out the ballot, and return the mail-in package to the office while you're there. But they're still all technically mail-in ballots and there's no distinction made in any reported numbers you see. So Democratic-affiliiated voters are leading 58-32 in mail-in ballots (which includes ones filled out in person); I don't see how that offers any evidence that Harris is outperforming Biden in that regard.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I'm not sure what you mean, there is no early in-person voting in Pennsylvania. Technically you can go to a government office, fill out a form to request a mail-in ballot, fill out the ballot, and return the mail-in package to the office while you're there. But they're still all technically mail-in ballots and there's no distinction made in any reported numbers you see. So Democratic-affiliiated voters are leading 58-32 in mail-in ballots (which includes ones filled out in person); I don't see how that offers any evidence that Harris is outperforming Biden in that regard.

Genuinely did not know that.

This is yet another indictment of the voting systems in America. The whole f'n election comes down to one state, and that state doesn't even have the full range of options for voting early. America once again showing that it's the shining example of democracy in the world!

Hmm... back to having no idea what's going to happen. And reading super original and funny end-of-the-world jokes.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I mean if we are entering humanity's final stretch we might as well try and have some laughs. Being glum and dark is gonna lead us to the same place. Plus, with porn being banned we can't use that, now can we?

[ResAlien]

Here this is lighthearted little bit of business

https://twitter.com/user/status/1850957577527705831

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852074591881134502

Lol at Don calling someone exhausted he can barely get the words out.

Also JP Mandel is on Roid rage today, I mean Rogan.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I mean if we are entering humanity's final stretch we might as well try and have some laughs. Being glum and dark is gonna lead us to the same place. Plus, with porn being banned we can't use that, now can we?

We can’t make jokes anymore, we can’t not pay our mortgage, we can’t even try to organize mass suicide…

Starting to feel like Trump’s America is already here TBH.

[burn_this_city]

Never been more confident. Some of these betting odds have already flipped back. Trump and the gang are already whining about PA and the female voting percentages.

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852053494615937311

[burn_this_city]

I mean wtf is this?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852072098455290111

[activeStick]

What is going on with the Dems? First it was Joe with his gaffe the other night and now Clinton is out there saying things that are probably just too risky at this point to say. How could they have possibly figured that statements like these might help Harris?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1851836073913016336

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

It’s alright guys I kind of feel that we should let everyone hold on to whatever sliver of hope they have right now. Over the next five days a lot of people are going to become so incredibly unhinged that maybe some small amount of hope can keep them from totally losing their minds.

Remember this is probably the last 5 days a lot of us have on planet earth. Honestly I wouldn’t even bother paying my mortgage this month because it’s all going right down the pooper soon

Maybe I'll bet my mortgage payment on Trump as a bit of a happiness hedge.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by activeStick

What is going on with the Dems? First it was Joe with his gaffe the other night and now Clinton is out there saying things that are probably just too risky at this point to say. How could they have possibly figured that statements like these might help Harris?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1851836073913016336

Wow that is terrible what was he thinking.

[Mathgod]

The Dems really are trying to lose aren't they? It's own goal after own goal...

For a party supposedly "not going back", they sure seem to be clinging hard to ancient gaffe-machines...

Maybe they should get these skeletons off the stage and embrace the younger generation of Democratic surrogates? Just a thought.

[Looch City]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

I mean wtf is this?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852072098455290111

That's Trump's chode.

[calumniate]

hellooo wisconsin!