MF YYC Politics - there, I mega did it

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

The failure was day 1 announcement. That price was never ever ever realistic. Overpromise, under deliver

Can they not stop the project? It's not a P3 so there is no penalty other than the sunk cost fallacy.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by curves2000

We need expert accounting and expert accountability for this project and more. How can the decision makers be so wrong? Where did the complete collapse in this project actually occur? As I said before and in previous posts, plenty of people on council need to be held to serious account. The video above of Nenshi glossing over a little inflation is all cute and all, but running the numbers should be jaw dropping. Everybody is to blame here.

In 2015 this was suppose to be $5.5 billion for 40 km's north-south. Things got more expensive, change in federal government, provincial government, Covid, inflation, interest rates etc. In 2020/21 this project was approved for approx 50% design and build with a ton of room for contingency planning. Everybody was beyond confident that there was more than enough wiggle room.

Fast forward to yesterday, when this gong show of a disaster was presented and now we are being told that maybe 1/3 of this project is going to be built to the tune of $6.2 billion? This has now become a $20-30 billion project when it's all said and done, for 40 km's of rail? That is $500-750 million per km. Process that figure.

Does anyone with a functioning, rational brain not think we are being taken advantage of in this regard and that financial fraud us not happening in front of us?

Before some people get pissy about things, let's just realize what is going to be happening right next door to this thing in the new arena. Does anyone think that Murray Edwards from the Flames ownership group just going to allow a 2-3 X increase in his costs to build the thing? Do you order a $50k car and then be told that it's going to be $200-250 k later? Has anyone purchased an averaged price single family home for $700k and then when it comes to completion being given a nearly $3 million tab?

A post for another thread but the same financial thievery has happened with the Transmountain Pipeline in AB/BC. Was suppose to be $4.5 billion but will probably reach $40, a 10X increase.

Actually what is going on here?

Well CNRL Horizon was budgeted for 3 phases at 10.9 billion for 232,000 bpd and phase 1 came at at 9.7 billion for 110,000 barrels so looks over a doubling of the cost per barrel.

The Arena next door was 550 million and is now 1.22 billion.

So yes Murray does allow his mega projects to come in at double the original budget.

[Wormius]

It’s not actually that far off. Vancouver is building a 5km section of subway that is running at almost $2.8 billion.

16km Skytrain extension at $4 billion.

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/broa...n-opening-date

[Amethyst]

There needs to be some kind of shelter at the stops, to protect people from extreme weather. It's a little different if you're downtown in a European city with accessible buildings right next to the stop.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Amethyst

There needs to be some kind of shelter at the stops, to protect people from extreme weather. It's a little different if you're downtown in a European city with accessible buildings right next to the stop.

Of course! Where else are the Hobos and Meth-heads supposed to congregate?

I'm kidding of course, I do agree, there has to be some shelter.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Amethyst

There needs to be some kind of shelter at the stops, to protect people from extreme weather. It's a little different if you're downtown in a European city with accessible buildings right next to the stop.

At this rate they can drop 10m of track on 1st street SW beside the Bay and call the covered sidewalk the station. Green line complete, as promised.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

At this rate they can drop 10m of track on 1st street SW beside the Bay and call the covered sidewalk the station. Green line complete, as promised.

I still think we can solve public transit with a bunch of rickshaws pulled by drug addicts! Pay them in Fentanyl and we're good!

Much cheaper.

Do they make Winter Tires for rickshaws?

[Nancy]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Can they not stop the project? It's not a P3 so there is no penalty other than the sunk cost fallacy.

I believe the argument is that they don't want to lose the federal funding... as if Calgarians don't also pay federal taxes.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Can they not stop the project? It's not a P3 so there is no penalty other than the sunk cost fallacy.

A couple problems. They'd lose a few billion from the Feds/province, and they've already ordered a bunch of rolling stock.

But the federal funding department has asked for a new business case to go with this scope change. The mayor seemed certain that would not be any issue and she's probably right as the feds will likely have a hard on for any version of train to nowhere over a more pragmatic solution that would actually get a lot more people out of ICE cars and into busses.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

A couple problems. They'd lose a few billion from the Feds/province, and they've already ordered a bunch of rolling stock.

But the federal funding department has asked for a new business case to go with this scope change. The mayor seemed certain that would not be any issue and she's probably right as the feds will likely have a hard on for any version of train to nowhere over a more pragmatic solution that would actually get a lot more people out of ICE cars and into busses.

They've also laid down a fair amount of infrastructure and, on top of that these projects get more expensive the longer you wait.

[The Fisher Account]

Calgary is going to have 2M people before we know it. The Green Line is a good investment in city infrastructure.

This is certainly frustrating but its not the end of the world.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by The Fisher Account

Calgary is going to have 2M people before we know it. The Green Line is a good investment in city infrastructure.

This is certainly frustrating but its not the end of the world.

Are all of those newcomers going to live between Ogden and Eau Claire? Like this version of the line doesn't even serve the existing people, never mind making the case for it serving 500,000 more people.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

I didn't think this was true if the LRV has accessibility ramps (as I posted images of earlier).

those types of ramps don't meet accessibility requirements either.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Slava

Are all of those newcomers going to live between Ogden and Eau Claire? Like this version of the line doesn't even serve the existing people, never mind making the case for it serving 500,000 more people.

Good luck. Where?

[The Fisher Account]

Originally Posted by Slava

Are all of those newcomers going to live between Ogden and Eau Claire? Like this version of the line doesn't even serve the existing people, never mind making the case for it serving 500,000 more people.

Wait til you hear about buses

[Wormius]

Yeah, it’s kind of silly or think every transit journey is a single way with no transfers involved. I find the train very efficient, even though I still have to take a bus to/from downtown.

[edslunch]

I think people are conflating low floor cars with European trams, which putter along through traffic and often through pedestrian areas, with many stops and easy hop on hop off. C-Train is a higher-speed, dedicated track mode so needs defined stations. How elaborate those stations need to be is debatable.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

I thought you were talking about Europe. I'm confused.



The LRVs that were specced for the green line have 34cm floors. Curbs are ~15cm. So while they look close to a sidewalk and are quite cheap to build vs. high floor platforms, they are still platforms. Unless you have LRVs with accessibility ramps, I'm saying jumping off a train onto a sidewalk doesn't work.

I think I'm catching on that you are saying the lower floor platforms are effectively a sidewalk and not a "station". I got thrown off because in Europe, they actually have LRVs with absolutely nothing for a station, you just jump off in the middle of a plaza, and to me that is what "no station" implied.

Yes, picture an empty field in the suburbs with tracks running through it. The train stops and you step out onto a 5' deep "sidewalk", that's raised to 34cm, for the length of the train. At each end, the "sidewalk" gradually slopes down to standard sidewalk height (15cm). There's a small sign denoting where you are and maybe some lighting. That literally happens all over the world. The minimum you need for people to enter and exit the train. I'm saying we massively overbuild everything here to overcompensate for the stupids.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Locke

They've also laid down a fair amount of infrastructure and, on top of that these projects get more expensive the longer you wait.

It would all be useful and necessary for a BRT.

BRT could open incrementally - we'd likely already have this Lynnwood to 4th St section open by now - and then you add the highest yield stretches like the part under Glenmore. Lots of short term things you can to do expedite getting through downtown, but even if its a bit slower you'd actually service downtown better because you could go E-W more.

The only downside to busses is that they would allegedly fail to satisfy demand in the medium term. Which I am highly skeptical of to begin with. But at the current pace the train is not really going to satisfy anything in the medium term.

[boogerz]

Originally Posted by edslunch

I think people are conflating low floor cars with European trams, which putter along through traffic and often through pedestrian areas, with many stops and easy hop on hop off. C-Train is a higher-speed, dedicated track mode so needs defined stations. How elaborate those stations need to be is debatable.

Not all European trams are the same though, as a lot of modern "trams" are essentially LRVs without a dedicated transitway.


The yellow low-floor Bombardier LRVs and dedicated transitway portions of the Berlin Stadtbahn is exactly that Calgary should be looking to do with the Green Line.