American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

It's wild the Democrats have to ##### foot around absolutely every challenge, and the Republicans are just like, ya, #### it, Donald Trump!

I don't know, if they had to appoint a replacement for Trump, they'd probably be in a bind too. The party establishment would be looking for a middle of the road guy who could win, while the majority of the party would want a super MAGA that would probably lose and would probably revolt if they went with someone with a hint of anti Trump rhetoric.

[Rutuu]

How does everyone see the following states voting?

California
Oregon
Washington
Colorado - Bush won in 2004 & 2000
Minnesota
Wisconsin - Trump won 2016 (lost in 2020)
Illinois
Michigan - Trump won 2016 (lost in 2020)
New York
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia - Bush won in 2004 & 2000
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
DC
New Mexico - Bush won in 2004 & 2000
Pennsylvania - Trump won 2016 (lost in 2020)

If you picked one Red team Biden loses...

To me the map skews quite Blue. In 2020 Biden won Az, Ga, and NV which turned the night into a complete blow out. The Red team has a decent mountain to climb to win this time convincing voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico do not feel in play.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

How does everyone see the following states voting?

California
Oregon
Washington
Colorado - Bush won in 2004 & 2000
Minnesota
Wisconsin - Trump won 2016 (lost in 2020)
Illinois
Michigan - Trump won 2016 (lost in 2020)
New York
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia - Bush won in 2004 & 2000
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
DC
New Mexico - Bush won in 2004 & 2000
Pennsylvania - Trump won 2016 (lost in 2020)

If you picked one Red team Biden loses...

To me the map skews quite Blue. In 2020 Biden won Az, Ga, and NV which turned the night into a complete blow out. The Red team has a decent mountain to climb to win this time convincing voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico do not feel in play.

The interesting thing with how correlated public opinion is is that the question really is what is the most red state a person can win. In general they get everything less red than that state.

Now there might be 2 or 3 coin flip states that are the same redness and there might be a change from midterms.

But it comes down to Pennsylvania which is Trump +2.4 per 270towin. So can Biden gain 1.2% support nationally after recovering from the debate. (These polls don’t factor in the debate performance)

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

That just seems like too big of an FU to the black population and would probably backfire if they lost their support.

I think Harris is probably the only path forward with a hope you can make her more likeable. To keep her as VP, it's hard to see how anyone but a white male (and one not from California) makes sense. A black male or female at the top of the ticket could work too, but then they'd have to ditch Harris. It does suck to have to view things that way, but it's an awkward situation when they basically have to appoint a replacement.

I don't think there is a significant difference between running Harris as VP again vs dropping her from the ticket altogether. Running her at the top of the ticket likely wins a bunch of voters and loses a bunch of others...whether it's a net gain in the right places is a big question, but I doubt it's a win in the biggest battleground states.

[wittynickname]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Because GOP voters only care about themselves. They'll happily sell the rights of women and minorities down the river if it means an extra few dollars in their bank accounts.

It's much easier to appeal to a group that is collectively self-interested than a plurality of voters with competing interests.

I don't even know if it's about dollars in their bank accounts, plenty of GOP voters are actively harmed by GOP policy.

It's all about pissing off the libs. As long as some blue haired feminists are mad, they're happy, regardless of whether they're shooting themselves in the foot.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

We won’t make it to 2028

Your post history almost seems to suggest you’re cheering for the end of the world?

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Your post history almost seems to suggest you’re cheering for the end of the world?

I am. But only if it’s via violent asteroid collision in which I die on impact and am vaporized.

If it’s via the slow decay of democracy wherein violent christofacists take over the USA, start a civil war and murder liberals, atheists and minorities then not so much.

[DoubleK]

At the rate they are shooting off fireworks tonight, there might not be anything left to win in November.

Never seen anything like it.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I don't know how you could get past the optics of essentially replacing a black woman with a white woman. Especially since you'd have to ditch Harris as VP candidate.

Vs. Trump lol

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I don't know, if they had to appoint a replacement for Trump, they'd probably be in a bind too. The party establishment would be looking for a middle of the road guy who could win, while the majority of the party would want a super MAGA that would probably lose and would probably revolt if they went with someone with a hint of anti Trump rhetoric.

Nikki Haley was out polling Trump for a general, in fact either side has a guaranteed landslide victory for the taking if they just ditch the loser out front.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

At the rate they are shooting off fireworks tonight, there might not be anything left to win in November.

Never seen anything like it.

They may be thinking this is the last July 4 they’ll have to celebrate if the election goes badly.

[KelVarnsen]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Your post history almost seems to suggest you’re cheering for the end of the world?

1000000% I do.

[trackercowe]

Biden is not leaving the race.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

1000000% I do.

That’s disturbing. And hateful.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by trackercowe

Biden is not leaving the race.

If he insists on running I don’t want to hear a goddamn thing from the democrats about how Americans should have voted harder when he gets absolutely throttled in the election.

If the Democratic Party allows him to run they deserve the curb stomping they’re in line for. Bite the curb and grin, idiots.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

If he insists on running I don’t want to hear a goddamn thing from the democrats about how Americans should have voted harder when he gets absolutely throttled in the election.

If the Democratic Party allows him to run they deserve the curb stomping they’re in line for. Bite the curb and grin, idiots.

Disagree. Biden is their best chance and our best chance at saving democracy in the U.S.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Biden is maybe their only chance, given the timing, but he is quite obviously not their best chance.

[MoneyGuy]

Four months out, he’s their best chance. He’ll win.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

If he insists on running I don’t want to hear a goddamn thing from the democrats about how Americans should have voted harder when he gets absolutely throttled in the election.

If the Democratic Party allows him to run they deserve the curb stomping they’re in line for. Bite the curb and grin, idiots.

Not only is Biden going to win, it will be a big gap. Of course Donald will cry foil but make no mistake, when it comes down to it the people will come out and vote blue.

[direwolf]

It’s quite something watching the media’s obsession with Biden’s debate performance and whether or not he should step aside.

Meanwhile you have a treasonous convicted felon on the other side of the aisle who attempted a real life coup just 3 years ago, and who lies and spews insane fascist nonsense every time he opens his mouth. He’s also only 3 years younger than Biden and is responsible for turning the Supreme Court into a vehicle for far-right lunacy, stripping away women’s rights in the process. And yet I don’t see anyone in the media talking about any of this stuff, or whether or not Trump should drop out of the race.

People are so easily distracted by surface level bulls***, and no one seems to be looking at the bigger picture here. It’s sad. Yes, Biden is too old. But he’s still a decent human being who cares about his country, and he’s currently the only choice if Americans want their democracy to continue. Someone younger can take over in 2028, or even before then if at any point he’s unable to perform his duties and Harris has to take over for a while, which would also be fine. If the unthinkable happens and Trump gets back into power, you likely won’t even have a free election in 2028, and your country will be well on its way to becoming an authoritarian state.