[Rumour] Lightning have contract extension in place for Hanifin if trade can be completed

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

Hanifin and Brisson are doing nothing wrong in my opinion. A team interested in Hanifin can ask if he is interested in signing long term, and he either says, nope or provides the contractual framework (presumably 8x7-8ish).

A signed Hanifin is worth more than an unsigned Hanifin, sure, but they aren't tanking his value to spite the Flames, they are just telling those teams where they stand. The risk Hanifin takes is that if he is too restrictive, the Flames pivot to a rental deal for any team that isn't on his no-trade list. I think both sides are motivated to be reasonable and attain a win-win. May not happen, but I think the motivation is there, even if that motivation is primarily self interest.

They actually can't unless Conroy agrees. But Conroy is in a tough spot. If he doesn't agree they will assume the worst.

[PepsiFree]

Conroy has already made his point with the Lindholm and Tanev trades, and perhaps even the Markstrom non-trade. He knew what he wanted, shopped it around, and took the best offer (or didn’t, if the best offer wasn’t good enough). There’s no reason for any agents or GMs to believe he will not just continue to do that. Nobody thinks they have him over a barrel, especially not agents and GMs that have been around the block. Conroy isn’t some green guy who has never been in the room, he’s been at the table for a decade at this point.

I also disagree that Brisson and Hanifin are acting offside in any way here. Mostly because I don’t believe the market operates under the assumption that they’ll offer more if there’s a chance they could sign a guy. They want to know, otherwise the value is that of a rental. You can’t have conditions based on whether a guy signs or not anymore, so that is likely the biggest factor in this change.

Conroy would be foolish to take a lesser deal of any kind just to prove a point. He’s made every point he needs to make. He wanted a 1st for Tanev and took a 2nd and a prospect because the Oilers tried to saddle him with a cap dump with a 1st. He’s not just taking deals that technically meet his ask, he’s taking the best deals. Zero reason to believe he won’t take the best deal here, either. If Tampa’s (or Florida’s, or Boston’s) offer is just slightly better than a rental, he’d be stupid not to take that deal.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by liamenator

It's not a question of right and wrong. They are acting in a way that is measurably bad for the Flames' ability to receive maximum value for their asset. It would be good for the Flames if agents and players did not act in this way in the future.

So, I think the goal here is two-fold: you do the best you can in maximizing what is now a distressed asset, and you show others around the league that you're not just going to roll over and acquiesce to a situation that is bad for your franchise. The hope is that the latter disincentivizes agents and players from trying this kind of thing with your team in the future.

Taking a worse deal because you didn’t think the better deals were “better enough” is doing exactly that.

If the market for a signed Hanifin is only a little better than the market for a rental Hanifin, then that’s the market.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by liamenator

It's not a question of right and wrong. They are acting in a way that is measurably bad for the Flames' ability to receive maximum value for their asset. It would be good for the Flames if agents and players did not act in this way in the future.

So, I think the goal here is two-fold: you do the best you can in maximizing what is now a distressed asset, and you show others around the league that you're not just going to roll over and acquiesce to a situation that is bad for your franchise. The hope is that the latter disincentivizes agents and players from trying this kind of thing with your team in the future.

If you took away the possibility for a potential suitor to inquire whether the player would be interested in re-signing would result in all potential buyers assuming the risk that they would only be acquiring the player as a rental (minus any backdoor communications). This would result in lower offers, in general, from all the suitors. The potential for there to be buyers that could re-sign the player increases the value of potential offers.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by liamenator

It's not a question of right and wrong. They are acting in a way that is measurably bad for the Flames' ability to receive maximum value for their asset. It would be good for the Flames if agents and players did not act in this way in the future.

So, I think the goal here is two-fold: you do the best you can in maximizing what is now a distressed asset, and you show others around the league that you're not just going to roll over and acquiesce to a situation that is bad for your franchise. The hope is that the latter disincentivizes agents and players from trying this kind of thing with your team in the future.

But to maximize Flames value, he would have to say he would sign anywhere. Take it a step further, he would say he would sign anywhere at a discount, which would maximize Flames value. They don't owe the Flames that, they are just being honest on where they stand.

Hanifin isn't a distressed asset, he is player 20 games away from UFA. I don't think he just recently chose to limit his teams to TB/FL/Bos. That was likely the top of his list for at least a year. The Flames don't have to roll over, they have to take the best deal for the Flames. That might be a rental to, say, Philadelphia. I don't think he wants to go there, but can't stop it if they are not on the no-trade.

[Sylvanfan]

If Hanifin ends up in Vegas and they win a Cup, it's not unreasonable to think he might start to see it as suddenly being more attractive.

Trade him for what you can get from who offers the best package. No need to "do right by the player". At this point he has preferences that have supposedly shifted. Pretty good chance he's going to market regardless of where he gets traded.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

They actually can't unless Conroy agrees. But Conroy is in a tough spot. If he doesn't agree they will assume the worst.

I am assuming Conroy has provided permission to Hanifin to negotiate a long term deal.

[Flamesfan05]

There is no real market for the signed Hanifin

There may be a market for the Hanifin rental


Rental maybe higher than signed. That’s why he is not in Tampa yet

[SuperMatt18]

I do think the market for a signed Hanifin will be better than a not signed Hanifin, but don't think it was ever going to be like Tkachuk. An RFA vs a UFA is a big difference in the value that the contract added.

If we look at the closest comparable which was the Hampus Lindholm trade:

1st 2022
2nd 2023
2nd 2024
Vaakaneinen

and compare it to one of the rumors I think there was about the Lightning offer:

1st 2026
2nd 2025
Isaac Howard

So I would say the 1st, and 2nd are equivalent, but that Howard is a better prospect than Vaakaneinen was (more upside at this point). So really that feels like it's about a 2nd/3rd round pick light in compared to what Lindholm got but comparable overall.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I do think the market for a signed Hanifin will be better than a not signed Hanifin, but don't think it was ever going to be like Tkachuk. An RFA vs a UFA is a big difference in the value that the contract added.

If we look at the closest comparable which was the Hampus Lindholm trade:

1st 2022
2nd 2023
2nd 2024
Vaakaneinen

and compare it to one of the rumors I think there was about the Lightning offer:

1st 2026
2nd 2025
Isaac Howard

So I would say the 1st, and 2nd are equivalent, but that Howard is a better prospect than Vaakaneinen was (more upside at this point). So really that feels like it's about a 2nd/3rd round pick light in compared to what Lindholm got but comparable overall.

Hanifin is the better players, and picks are far out which isn't a bad thing. But we can leverage that and have trade protection removed from the 1st.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by liamenator

I don't disagree at all about Canadian markets. It's an unfortunate recent development that's going to require teams to rethink their approach to hockey operations.



Regarding the other points -- I didn't say it was a conspiracy, or that other teams are "picking" on Conroy. I said they are trying to squeeze a first-year GM. I didn't mean to imply that it was unique to Conroy or the Flames. It happens every year.


My point is that it's compounding an already difficult set of circumstances. And, by extension, I'm not convinced Brisson and Hanifin would try this approach against a more experienced GM.



I'm also not sure there are as many precedents for how Brisson and Hanifin are (allegedly) handling this as you suggest. Could you provide an example or two of a player and his agent trying to not only steer his trade to a preferred destination, but also dissuade potential rental suitors from becoming involved, so as to ensure the client receives an 8-year contract? Maybe this has happened a bunch before, but I can't recall many examples.


Finally, I'm not talking about taking a vastly inferior deal. I said "slightly lesser." What I mean is: if Tampa thinks it has the Flames over the barrel and presents an offer that's not market value for an extended Hanifin, and there are deals from rental suitors that are lesser but proximate to what TB is offering, maybe you sacrifice a little in the short term to dissuade players and agents from acting in the future as Brisson and Hanifin have been.



I mentioned the Burke and Cammelleri non-trade as analogous to what I mean here. Do you think Burke's decision to not trade Cammallerri was foolish, an example of cutting off the nose to spite the face? If so, fair enough, but I disagree. I think it was wise in the long-run in terms of rebuilding the franchise's reputation after the Feaster years, in which the Flames seem to have become known as an easy get around the league. I'm suggesting Conroy do something similar, though more proactive, here.

Mark Stone and Giroux off the very top of my head.

And the Burke thing was absolutely foolish. The market doesn't lie at TDL. Value is what the value is. I think it's pretty unlikely that a 3rd wasn't on the table for Cammi - even if it was something like a 3rd+7th for Cammi+5th. You know who got drafted in the 3rd round that summer? Brayden Point. Now of course it's a fantasy that it would play out like that, but you can't win the lottery if you don't hold any tickets.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by D as in David

If you took away the possibility for a potential suitor to inquire whether the player would be interested in re-signing would result in all potential buyers assuming the risk that they would only be acquiring the player as a rental (minus any backdoor communications). This would result in lower offers, in general, from all the suitors. The potential for there to be buyers that could re-sign the player increases the value of potential offers.

And lets be real about this.

Say you are Brisebois but technically you arent allowed to ask Brisson/Hanifin directly if he would be willing to extend with your team.

Well, a simple inquiry through other people will garner the information you are seeking. Dollars and term etc. will already be within the ballpark on both sides, so it would come down to minutia on a signing. You know your risk is minimal which allows a deal to happen.

The NHL world is a small one. Generally there is a 2 or 3 degree of separation of players/coaches/Gm's....at most. You want to know something and you are a GM? Not hard to find out.

[PepsiFree]

The other way to look at the Hanifin situation and whether he or his agent are doing anything “wrong” is to put the Flames on the other side of it.

How happy would Flames fans be if they spent above-rental level assets to acquire a player because the player said “sure, maybe I’ll sign here, I’d sign anywhere!” just to have that player walk directly to free agency and sign where he actually wanted to sign later. People would be pissed.

The player, the agent, and the opposing GM would look terrible as they didn’t just “do right” by the franchise that traded the player, they actively and purposefully screwed another franchise to do it. That’s bad business.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Mark Stone and Giroux off the very top of my head.

And the Burke thing was absolutely foolish. The market doesn't lie at TDL. Value is what the value is. I think it's pretty unlikely that a 3rd wasn't on the table for Cammi - even if it was something like a 3rd+7th for Cammi+5th. You know who got drafted in the 3rd round that summer? Brayden Point. Now of course it's a fantasy that it would play out like that, but you can't win the lottery if you don't hold any tickets.

Yeah at the time I remember thinking don't trade Cammi unless you get at least a 2nd.

But then you look back at that draft and Point, Sorokin, Walman, Merzlikins, Walman, Devon Toews, Arvidsson, etc all went in the 3rd and 4th round that year.

Islanders got the 3rd round pick they took Sorokin with by trading Andrew MacDonald.

Islanders drafted Toews with the 4th round pick they got for trading Mark Streit.

More kicks at the can are always better than not, and any return is generally better than nothing (to an extent).

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

Hanifin and Brisson are doing nothing wrong in my opinion. A team interested in Hanifin can ask if he is interested in signing long term, and he either says, nope or provides the contractual framework (presumably 8x7-8ish).

A signed Hanifin is worth more than an unsigned Hanifin, sure, but they aren't tanking his value to spite the Flames, they are just telling those teams where they stand. The risk Hanifin takes is that if he is too restrictive, the Flames pivot to a rental deal for any team that isn't on his no-trade list. I think both sides are motivated to be reasonable and attain a win-win. May not happen, but I think the motivation is there, even if that motivation is primarily self interest.

They’re only doing something wrong if the question is posed by the Flames. If Brisson is talking to teams directly without transparency to the Flames that’s tampering.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Hanifin is the better players, and picks are far out which isn't a bad thing. But we can leverage that and have trade protection removed from the 1st.

I don’t believe Hanifin is the better player. Lindholm was an established top-pairing d-man when he was traded, and finished fourth in Norris voting his first season in Boston.

[Niemo]

Hearing this morning from David Pagnotta that the Red Wings are very interested in Hanifin if he extends.

This is annoying.....the Red Wings have assets up the ying yang and are the perfect trading partner..... If they don't get Hanifin, I hope Conroy dangles Rasmus to them for their top assets. I'm tired of all the lip service these guys are giving Calgary only to demand out in the last year of their contract and give us a list of 3-5 teams.

Beat the boat, Connie!

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Wolfman

You win

I get it sucks that the Flames will get a lesser return but what do you think Hanifin should do? He should just sign with any team so the Flames can get the best return?

To me if they didn’t want to ride it down to a pure rental return they should have traded him once he backed away from an extension earlier in the season. They still thought the chance of re-signing Hanifin was better than getting a better return.

[Wolfman]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I get it sucks that the Flames will get a lesser return but what do you think Hanifin should do? He should just sign with any team so the Flames can get the best return?

To me if they didn’t want to ride it down to a pure rental return they should have traded him once he backed away from an extension earlier in the season. They still thought the chance of re-signing Hanifin was better than getting a better return.

I understand what you're saying. But I never once said not to trade with a team willing for him to be a rental.

My point was that Conroy better be looking at more teams than just Tampa to appease Hanifin and his agent (which I am sure he is). That's all.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

There’s no conspiracy against Conroy and the Flames. Other GMs aren’t picking on him. Brisson isn’t doing anything the agents for other pending UFAs haven’t done in the past.

Market conditions are working against the Flames. Their big UFA is apparently only willing to sign with a couple teams. Several of the teams in win now mode have previously traded away their 1sts and 2nds. Others are more in need of a RHD than LHD. And the cap crunch makes any deal with significant salary difficult to pull off.

It’s frustrating. But talk about strong-arming and sending signals is off-base. The NHL trade market isn’t as emotional and macho as some fans seem to think. Taking a worse deal to ‘send a signal’ would be foolish. The only signal it would send would that they’re willing to cut off their nose to spite their face. Conroy and the rest of Flames management are smarter than that.

The bigger issue is that NHL players are exercising more control over where they play, and more and more of them don’t want to play in Canada. Fans need to recognize this unwelcome new reality. And Canadian teams need to get their heads around what this means for running their franchises. It probably means making tougher decisions sooner.

Drafting and development is the only way around this, IMO. Build through the draft, don't get impatient and jumpstart your contention window by trading picks, and trade players in advance of free agency to keep your draft pick cupboard stocked, always.

Know what you are. You're an undesirable, small market team in a crap climate. Accept that reality and operate accordingly.