Does the NHL have a Canadian success problem?

[JohnnyB]

Are Canadian teams really important to the NHL anymore?

Most future expansion will be down south. Also, American player development has improved a lot, and there is more room for growth in the US than in Canada. Canadians would be devastated at the loss of the NHL, but I'm not sure it's really a reciprocal relationship. The NHL has basically become an American league that Canadian teams and players play in.

[dino7c]

It is harder to attract players in 4 of the markets...have to pay more too

[The Cobra]

There is a disadvantage of being a Canadian team, but it's not huge.

No more disadvantage of being in Columbus tbh.

Sure we lost Fox, but we also lost the huge cap hit that goes with it.

It's not like we could parachute Fox, Johnny and Tkachuk into our lineup without huge cap causulties.

At the end of the day, Calgary is in no man's land due to signing aging players to long term contracts.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

There is a disadvantage of being a Canadian team, but it's not huge.

No more disadvantage of being in Columbus tbh.

Sure we lost Fox, but we also lost the huge cap hit that goes with it.

It's not like we could parachute Fox, Johnny and Tkachuk into our lineup without huge cap causulties.

At the end of the day, Calgary is in no man's land due to signing aging players to long term contracts.

I think they could make it work lol
they sign aging players to contracts because that is the only way to lock in decent talent

there is also the pressure of being the biggest game in town, US teams feel way less pressure

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by iggyloob12

Canadian NHL teams have a success problem. It's not on the league to prop up teams that haven't built winners. Some older free agents might not choose to sign with certain Canadian teams, but that doesn't mean those teams can't build a winner through drafting, shrewd trades and value signings.

The league doesn't need to, and shouldn't prop up teams for success, but they do it anyway south of the border by implementing relaxed movement clause restrictions for players. This prevents Canadian markets from acquiring talent and hoards it in the U.S. Not actively doing something that hurts Canadian markets isn't the same as helping them.

As mentioned, the NBA has an 8/4 rule for NTCs. A player has to have at least 8 years in the league and 4 with the same team before they are eligible for an NTC with that specific team. The MLB has a similar 10/5 rule. By having those restrictions, they aren't propping up the less desirable markets, they are just trying not to hobble them as much.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Muta

In a 30+ team league, I don't think it's odd at all that seven of those Canadian teams (eight if you include Quebec City I guess) haven't won the Cup in the last 30 years. The other 23+ teams have just been better. Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Vancouver have all made it to the Finals as well during that time, which is almost winning it all. I don't think the lack of Canadian cup success has anything to do with imaginary geographical borders; just odds, really.

If it's just odds really, it's some pretty damn long ones.

The chances - randomly - that a Canadian team hasn't won a cup in the last 30 years is actually 0.028%. That's less than 3 in 10,000.

So no, it's not 'just odds, really'.

[bc-chris]

Originally Posted by Muta

In a 30+ team league, I don't think it's odd at all that seven of those Canadian teams (eight if you include Quebec City I guess) haven't won the Cup in the last 30 years. The other 23+ teams have just been better. Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Vancouver have all made it to the Finals as well during that time, which is almost winning it all. I don't think the lack of Canadian cup success has anything to do with imaginary geographical borders; just odds, really.

that's what i was thinking too

so for the last 30 years (1993-2023) in the finals....
montreal - 2021
vancouver - 2011
ottawa - 2007
grease - 2006
calgary - 2004
vancouver - 1994
montreal - 1993

which kind of makes sense with the number of teams in the league

i wonder if part of what skews our thought process is thinking back to just before that 30 year window....
oilers - 1990
calgary & montreal - 1989
oilers - 1988
oilers - 1987
calgary & montreal - 1986
oilers - 1985
oilers - 1984
oilers - 1983
vancouver - 1982

if anything, the above list of 9 consecutive seasons is statistically abnormal

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

There is a disadvantage of being a Canadian team, but it's not huge.

No more disadvantage of being in Columbus tbh.

Sure we lost Fox, but we also lost the huge cap hit that goes with it.

It's not like we could parachute Fox, Johnny and Tkachuk into our lineup without huge cap causulties.

At the end of the day, Calgary is in no man's land due to signing aging players to long term contracts.

Sure not right now.

But in 19-20, 20-21 (Norris year), and 21-22 we would have had Fox at $925k which might have actually pushed this team over the top.

[Macho0978]

Even though I agree that Canadian teams are impatient on average and probably are on average poorly run vs US teams. There is a problem still and IMO the league needs to look at equalizing the income tax issues across the entire league.

3 out of 4 teams in the final 4 have no state income tax.

But it should not take 30 years to end this drought.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If it's just odds really, it's some pretty damn long ones.

The chances - randomly - that a Canadian team hasn't won a cup in the last 30 years is actually 0.028%. That's less than 3 in 10,000.

So no, it's not 'just odds, really'.

The higher point here is that geographical borders shouldn't be some sort of determining factor; seven current teams in a certain area haven't won in 30 years. Oh well. Odds are against each of them to start, anyways, just like any other team in the league. There are many US teams who haven't won in that 30-year timeframe either.

Also, bc-chris's post also shows that Canadian teams have been to the Stanley Cup Finals seven times in 30 years, so there's your odds, right on track, right there. So the Canadian teams haven't won seven times straight in the finals - whatever, it happens. There isn't some kind of Canadian jinx, determined by political boundaries; maybe the winning team in each of those series was just better, location be damned.

[Qwerty]

There is one thing the final 4 have in common. Low Tax rates. Players take discounts to play there, which is like having a higher cap (and add in Vegas's ability to massage the cap). 3 of the teams have the lowest tax rates in the NHL. (could be a coincidence, I understand correlation isn't causation)

https://############.com/news/compar...-based-on-city

**Based on a $9,500,000 contract, and it doesn’t consider agent fees, escrow and travel taxes.***

Tampa Bay, Nashville, Dallas, Vegas and Florida (Top group) have the largest after tax take home ($5.351 million) while Toronto and Ottawa ($4.448 million) and Montreal ($4.458 million) (bottom group) have the least.
Edmonton and Calgary are tied for 18th in net salary at $4.968 million.

So we would of had to pay Chucky an extra $500K+ a season for his take home pay to be the same as in Florida.

edit - apparently linked is blocked as its to an oilers site! haha

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

There is a problem still and IMO the league needs to look at equalizing the income tax issues across the entire league.

This is way out of scope and beyond the ability of the league to address.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Muta

The higher point here is that geographical borders shouldn't be some sort of determining factor; seven current teams in a certain area haven't won in 30 years. Oh well. Odds are against each of them to start, anyways, just like any other team in the league. There are many US teams who haven't won in that 30-year timeframe either.

Also, bc-chris's post also shows that Canadian teams have been to the Stanley Cup Finals seven times in 30 years, so there's your odds, right on track, right there. So the Canadian teams haven't won seven times straight in the finals - whatever, it happens. There isn't some kind of Canadian jinx, determined by political boundaries; maybe the winning team in each of those series was just better, location be damned.

First of all, 7 teams making it to the finals does not cover the odds - there are 2 finalists every year.

But more to the point, when the odds are that obscure, it is reasonable to assume it isn't random, and there is a reason for it. Many posters have listed multiple, plausible reasons why the Canadian teams are disadvantaged. You dismissed it as odds. I showed that it isn't just odds. No one has suggested that it is a jinx, or determined by political boundaries. However, there are some valid issues:

1) taxes
2) NMCs
3) weather
4) Canadian fans
5) small markets
6) no personal privacy

and there are likely several more

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Qwerty

There is one thing the final 4 have in common. Low Tax rates. Players take discounts to play there, which is like having a higher cap (and add in Vegas's ability to massage the cap). 3 of the teams have the lowest tax rates in the NHL. (could be a coincidence, I understand correlation isn't causation)

https://############.com/news/compar...-based-on-city

**Based on a $9,500,000 contract, and it doesn’t consider agent fees, escrow and travel taxes.***

Tampa Bay, Nashville, Dallas, Vegas and Florida (Top group) have the largest after tax take home ($5.351 million) while Toronto and Ottawa ($4.448 million) and Montreal ($4.458 million) (bottom group) have the least.
Edmonton and Calgary are tied for 18th in net salary at $4.968 million.

So we would of had to pay Chucky an extra $500K+ a season for his take home pay to be the same as in Florida.

edit - apparently linked is blocked as its to an oilers site! haha

In the last decade the 5 teams with no state tax have 2 cups and a total of 7 finals appearance out of a possible 20. So 27 teams have 13 and 5 have 7. It's not coincident and this lines up with the 2012/13 lockout when you could no longer front load contracts for more than 8 years. There is an clear advantage for these teams and Canadian teams ranks at the bottom when it comes to taxes.

[lazypucker]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

There is a problem still and IMO the league needs to look at equalizing the income tax issues across the entire league.

3 out of 4 teams in the final 4 have no state income tax.

This won't solve the problem. Even if the league change the cap structure so every team will have equal after-tax dollars to spend on salaries, all the players still want to go to sexy locations such as NY and California.

It is down to the media pressure and the general appeal of Canadian cities vs sunny destinations in Florida and big cities like LA.

Having well-run teams like the Lightning won't hurt either

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by lazypucker

This won't solve the problem. Even if the league change the cap structure so every team will have equal after-tax dollars to spend on salaries, all the players still want to go to sexy locations such as NY and California.

It is down to the media pressure and the general appeal of Canadian cities vs sunny destinations in Florida and big cities like LA.

Having well-run teams like the Lightning won't hurt either

Well run teams that got high end players to re-sign team friendly deals that don't hurt the player because after taxes they are making the same?

Tkachuk sign $9.5 mil in FLA but wanted $10.5 is Calgary and so did Huberdeau? There is a reason why this happens and it isn't just because Calgary weather sucks and we need a new arena.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

First of all, 7 teams making it to the finals does not cover the odds - there are 2 finalists every year.

But more to the point, when the odds are that obscure, it is reasonable to assume it isn't random, and there is a reason for it. Many posters have listed multiple, plausible reasons why the Canadian teams are disadvantaged. You dismissed it as odds. I showed that it isn't just odds. No one has suggested that it is a jinx, or determined by political boundaries. However, there are some valid issues:

1) taxes
2) NMCs
3) weather
4) Canadian fans
5) small markets
6) no personal privacy

and there are likely several more

Cool - I don't see those as big factors (that's just me though). Edmonton has McDavid and Draisaitl, two of the best players in the league, so taxes, NMCs, weather, Canadian fans, small markets kinda go out the window with that stuff. At the end of the day, it's who wins on the ice. Canadian teams have shown, and recently, that, they can make it to the last dance, which would be viewed as success from every other team in the league competing that particular year. And 7/30 is right on par for the 'odds' discussion.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

This is way out of scope and beyond the ability of the league to address.

Can they not bring it up at the end of this CBA? Not suggesting this happens tomorrow.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

First of all, 7 teams making it to the finals does not cover the odds - there are 2 finalists every year.

But more to the point, when the odds are that obscure, it is reasonable to assume it isn't random, and there is a reason for it. Many posters have listed multiple, plausible reasons why the Canadian teams are disadvantaged. You dismissed it as odds. I showed that it isn't just odds. No one has suggested that it is a jinx, or determined by political boundaries. However, there are some valid issues:

1) taxes
2) NMCs
3) weather
4) Canadian fans
5) small markets
6) no personal privacy

and there are likely several more

I think you can add Covid-19 to that list. Johnny being unable to get home to visit his ailing father seemed to be rightly so a big deal.

My view is
- The biggest disadvantages for Canadian teams are self inflicted and being poorly run
- But there are also other clear disadvantages particularly for Canadian teams not named Toronto and Montreal. Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg would rank in the very bottom of desirable destinations for a lot of NHLers.

[dino7c]

all this being said the Flames won the cup in 2004