[PGT] Flames 4 - Blues 1. Duehr’s 1st NHL Goal

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

LOL, I thought you didn't operate that way?

Stats are stats.

"The Flames are a perimeter team!" can be refuted.

But when you put up something as grey-ish as a team plays better in front of goalie x over goalie y it's impossible to just post stats and be done with it.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

The problem is, Markstrom letting in a softie is more consistent and predictable than any other individual players coughing the puck up at the blue line or a very stupid offensive zone penalty.

Also the outlook is worse because it's a definite goal against vs a possible goal against in the other 2 situations where you at least have a chance at a save still or for the defence to clear the puck.

You need your goalies to make the obvious saves - the shots classified as low and medium danger. Dumb forward/defenceman play notwithstanding... because the latter is going to happen eventually, there are very few hockey games where your skaters are perfect defensively. But all those low and most of the medium danger changes need to be saved.

This stuff annoys me.

Based on what?

I mean you could be right, for sure, but I certainly don't know how you can come to just a conclusion with literally nothing to support it.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

With all due respect, the moneypuck model isn’t passing the smell test

Natural stat trick shows Vladar with +1.89 GSAA and Markstrom with -9.25 GSAA in all situations (or 1.69 and -9.23 at 5v5)

Don’t those seem to better reflect what we all have been watching all year?

Yeah that's a huge chasm.

For fun ...

NaturalStatTrick top 5

1. Ullmark
2. Hellebucyk
3. Sorokin
4. Oettinger
5. Saros

Moneypuck

1. Ullmark
2. Sorokin
3. Saros
4. Hellebucyk
5. Oettinger

Same 5 ... so wonder why they have Markstrom pegged so differently.

Looks like a difference in expected goals against for Markstrom specifically, NatStatTrick has about 7 less expected so that destroys his numbers.

Up to the viewer for which one is right.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

They need to be more mentally strong than that.
Do they similar get dejected and give up if a guy has a bad give away that leads to a goal.
Or if a guy takes a bad penalty that results in a goal?

Like I said the players aren't robots. I'm sure they really like Markstrom as a person too. But when you have been so inconsistent this year how can you trust him?

and for sure there is let up. Look at that St Louis game.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Like I said the players aren't robots. I'm sure they really like Markstrom as a person too. But when you have been so inconsistent this year how can you trust him?

and for sure there is let up. Look at that St Louis game.

If there is let up they have to take accountability for that too.

These are the best players in the world. Be tougher.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah that's a huge chasm.

For fun ...

NaturalStatTrick top 5

1. Ullmark
2. Hellebucyk
3. Sorokin
4. Oettinger
5. Saros

Moneypuck

1. Ullmark
2. Sorokin
3. Saros
4. Hellebucyk
5. Oettinger

Same 5 ... so wonder why they have Markstrom pegged so differently.

I was under the understanding that GSAA was simply based on save percentage

So you take league average sv%, apply it to a goalie’s shots faced, and that’s the average part of the equation

Compare it to actuals, and that’s the GSAA

So it would stand to reason that a guy with below average sv% would have below average GSAA

That’s why the moneypuck rankings don’t sit right

[beaster]

Originally Posted by the2bears

Did you though? They weren't actually the last wildcard team so I think you might be full of it.

You are correct, my mistake. and he was good in the 1st round but it takes 4 rounds to win a cup. Show me a year he was great in the 2nd round.

[MillerTime GFG]

Was traveling during the game. Good to see this result upon landing. So curious to see how the goalie sitch plays out moving forward...

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah that's a huge chasm.

For fun ...

NaturalStatTrick top 5

1. Ullmark
2. Hellebucyk
3. Sorokin
4. Oettinger
5. Saros

Moneypuck

1. Ullmark
2. Sorokin
3. Saros
4. Hellebucyk
5. Oettinger

Same 5 ... so wonder why they have Markstrom pegged so differently.

Looks like a difference in expected goals against for Markstrom specifically, NatStatTrick has about 7 less expected so that destroys his numbers.

Up to the viewer for which one is right.

For GSAA there is variation between the sites - generally small - but it does exist based on the way it's calculation as there is no standard calc.

Natural Stat Trick vs Money Puck
Ullmark: 26.3 vs 22.7
Hellebuyck: 20.5 vs 17.4
Sorokin: 19.7 VS 22.1
Oettinger: 17.1 VS 15.3
Saros: 17.0 vs 20.2

Natural Stat Trick Bottom 5:
Quick: -13.6 vs -10.6
Campbell: -14.1 vs -12.8
Kahkonen: -15.3 vs -17.3
Martin:-16.8 vs -13.2
Merzlikins: -20.4 vs - 21.6

Markstrom is the weirdest one where you such a big variation - don't really see that with the other goalies.

Moneypuck:
All Situations: 0.9
5v5:-3.9
PK: 2.9

Natural Stat Trick:
All Situations: -9.25
5v5: -9.23
PK: 0.58

First glance the biggest difference is Moneypuck is showing Markstrom as being great on the PK...which doesn't match the eye test to me. PK is generally pretty stingy and don't think he's been standing on his head or anything

Digging into the 5v5 after that and it looks like there is a discrepancy on the High Danger numbers. Slighlty different in that it's GSAA vs Save % above expected.

Natural Stat Trick
HDGSAA: -6.23
MDGSAA: -3.57
LDGSAA: 2.38

Moneypuck
HDS%AE: 0.070
MDS%AE:-0.019
LDS%AE:-.006

Personally I think something is off with Moneypuck.

They have Markstrom High Danger Save percentage as 0.778 - which ranks 49th.

Natural Stat Trick has it at 0.796 - that ranks about 72nd in Natural Stat Trick (no filters).

So in both cases he's way below average - but Money puck has the Flames expected high danger save percentage when Markstrom on the ice as .708, which is really really low.

So difference appears to be that Moneypuck has Markstrom actually performing better than expected for High Danger shots, and Natural Stat trick has him performing way below average. So Moneypuck just thinks Flames are giving up absolute unsaveable shots with Markstrom on the ice, especially from high danger.

[dino7c]

it may seem way too easy but why not if you win you stay in for now

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Lots of comments about the Flames playing better in front of Vladar.

Pulled the stats, but then it occurred to me you can interpret all of these two ways.

All situations ...

Markstrom
Flames score 2.84/60
Give up 2.77/60

Generate 3.25/60
Generated against 2.72/60

Vladar
Flames score 3.42/60
Give up 2.73/60

Generate 3.14/60
Generated against 2.92/60

So what do you make of that?

They technically play better in front of Markstrom in terms of chances for and against and the resulting expected goals.

But they give Vladar more run support so he gets more wins.

Actually goalie performance has Vladar up but it's razor tight.

So if you like Markstrom you say he's not getting the run support. If you like Vladar you say they score more for him because they feel more comfortable.

Spin is available both ways.

Since Florida lost last night, the goalies matchups are as follows for their starts

Above .500

Vladar -11/13 = 85%
Markstrom - 19/30 = 63%

Under .500
Vladar - 2/13 = 15%
Markstrom - 11/30 = 37%

The fact that Vladar is the better performing goalie given the quality of opposition they both have faced is a real testament to who is the better goalie this year. I would love to know the numbers against teams above .500, as I suspect when you compare apples to apples Vladar has a much bigger advantage.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Expected goals against 20.25

Actual goals against 14.0



He was great in that series, probably the 2nd best goaltender in the first round.

I got ridiculed for suggesting this last week.

Both goalies were excellent in that series, but Oettinger was incredible, especially in game 7.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Lots of comments about the Flames playing better in front of Vladar.

Pulled the stats, but then it occurred to me you can interpret all of these two ways.

All situations ...

Markstrom
Flames score 2.84/60
Give up 2.77/60

Generate 3.25/60
Generated against 2.72/60

Vladar
Flames score 3.42/60
Give up 2.73/60

Generate 3.14/60
Generated against 2.92/60

So what do you make of that?

They technically play better in front of Markstrom in terms of chances for and against and the resulting expected goals.

But they give Vladar more run support so he gets more wins.

Actually goalie performance has Vladar up but it's razor tight.

So if you like Markstrom you say he's not getting the run support. If you like Vladar you say they score more for him because they feel more comfortable.

Spin is available both ways.

When the score is within one goal:

Vladar has a GAA of 2.59
Markstrom has a GAA of 2.92

Vladar gets more run support, not because they "feel more comfortable" but because he keeps the Flames in a better spot score-wise to capitalize. For instance, in yesterday's game, the Coleman goal was the back-breaker for the Blues. Vladar had maintained a 2-1 game.


Who knows if Coleman scores that third goal if it is a 2-2 or 2-3 game? The Blues would not necessarily be playing as risky and making that turnover that lead to that goal, if the Blues were the one with the lead.

Lindholm scored an empty-netter because the Blues pulled their goalie, because the score was 3-1

The Blues don't pull their goalie if the score is 3-3, and this game thus goes to overtime.

The correlation between goaltending and run support is more than just how players "feel" in front of a goalie. It affects how opponents play.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

I got ridiculed for suggesting this last week.

Both goalies were excellent in that series, but Oettinger was incredible, especially in game 7.

Yep, Oettinger gets more praise for that series because of how badly the Flames peppered him but Markstrom was just as good. The Flames don't even get into OT in game 7 if not for him.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by beaster

You are correct, my mistake. and he was good in the 1st round but it takes 4 rounds to win a cup. Show me a year he was great in the 2nd round.

"You are correct, here are the new goal posts."

[Samonadreau]

Markstrom was exceptional in the Dallas series but had a poor series against the Oilers. Problem was the entire team outside of Backlund had a poor series against the Oilers so it wasn't just on him.

For some reason though he hasnt found his stride for more than a game or two at a time since that Dallas series.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

he was great against Dallas

it was also the last time he was playing consistently game to game at the level we needed

it has little bearing on what the situation is now, where he is being out performed by Vladar with regularity

we all want Dallas markstrom. this is why he keeps getting the leash he does. but at this point it looks like he's not going to be showing up

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by dino7c

it may seem way too easy but why not if you win you stay in for now

Fine with me. Although I think Sutter believes that even if Vladar is the better goalie Markstrom is still his #1 and wants him out there to figure it out. That last game wasn't good but he's been better the last couple of weeks. I also think the break coming up in a couple weeks will do him a world of good to get away from the rink and clear his mind. Go somewhere warm for a few days and chill out and relax, come back and play like you can.

I like both goalies and I still think Markstrom can get back to his form of last year but I would start Vladar tomorrow.

[Bingo]

Bottom line I hope Vladar runs with it.

If he can put some wins together it solves a lot of issues

- more security in a playoff spot
- more "value" in net
- Markstrom becomes highly motivated to get his net back

everyone wins

The opposite is the concern ... Dallas picks apart Vladar and suddenly the goalie controversy is not having a goalie at all.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by dino7c

it may seem way too easy but why not if you win you stay in for now

This is what Hartley did with Ramo and Hiller and it just worked.