Mathew Tkachuk and other key RFA signing watch thread

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by blankall

Much prefer hockey skills over just speed. The Flames have had so many speedy forwards with hands of stone over the years. They end up pretty useless, usually buried on the 4th line and some PK work before heading off to Europe.

Gaudreau, Tanguay, Huselius, Nilsson, those players make electric plays. We have plenty of other fast in a straight line players but its harder to get those type.

[littlereddevil]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Elite #1 C....how many teams have that?
Colorado.
Edmonton.
Pittsburgh
Toronto
Maybe Vegas if Eichel rebounds and progresses.

Unless you draft one you are not getting an elite #1 C

Exactly. Let's look at recent SC winners and who their #1Cs were.

Colorado - MacKinnon (elite)
Tampa - Stamkos (elite)
St. Louis - O'Reilly (solid #1, but not elite)
Washington - Kuznetsov (solid #1, but not elite)
Pittsburgh - Crosby (elite)
Chicago - Toews (solid #1, but not elite)
Los Angeles - Kopitar (solid #1, but not elite)

But if you look further at these rosters, you'll see that almost all of these teams have a solid 1-2 punch of good centres on their top two lines. So I wouldn't necessarily say that an elite #1C is completely necessary to be a Stanley Cup winner (but it can certainly help and improve your chances!), but more so that you need a deep lineup with lots of secondary scoring.

Do the Flames have that right now? Arguably no, as much as we like Backlund he's more a solid 3rd line centre on a deep team.

If Monahan returns to his old form and Lindholm doesn't regress without Gaudreau on his wing, maybe the Flames will get that 1-2 punch.

Otherwise if I were Treliving and looking to take the team to the next level, I'd be looking at trading/signing through free agency a 2C to complement Lindholm. I doubt the Flames will end up signing Kadri (I think he's out of their price range and wants to return to Colorado), but maybe the Flames could look at a trade this off-season, or before the trade deadline (once we know which form of Monahan we'll be getting) to acquire that 2C they really need.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by blankall

Tkachuk is going to exploit the F out of this situation. He's not a nice guy.

Based on what?

I think he'll maximize his value, I don't expect any discount. But sorry, he's not a nice guy based on what. I have no idea what kind of guy he is, I'm just trying to understand how you do, and he actually makes a very good impression when in front of the media (which I realize is staged).

[TheIronMaiden]

One of the frustrating things re: Gaudreau is that any flexibility we earned won't pay off until next season. The Flames, and their fans need to lump it. This season is all about asset management. However, I am confident the Flames can ice a competitive team again in 20223/24.

Provided they can sign Tkachuk, or mobilize his value.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

Based on what?

I think he'll maximize his value, I don't expect any discount. But sorry, he's not a nice guy based on what. I have no idea what kind of guy he is, I'm just trying to understand how you do, and he actually makes a very good impression when in front of the media (which I realize is staged).

He actually seems like a nice guy to me, the way he interacts with his team, fans, and the media. The way he pumps up his goalies and celebrates his teammates, or how he gave a shoutout to Kristen Anderson, or made that video clip to wish the that unfortunate child well during the playoffs, or the sweet photos on social media of him joking around with his sister. I think Tkachuk seems like a really nice guy actually.

When it comes to business, I don't think he is going to be a pushover, but I don't think he is going to be unfair either. I certainly expect that if he wants to go to free agency, he won't pull a Johnny.

[Matata]

Originally Posted by dino7c

People were saying the same things about Brady and he signed a fair contract

$8.25M cap hit based on a 67 point season, the rest of his careet he's sat at ~0.6ppg. Using Tkachuk math, Matt is due $12.8M.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by littlereddevil

Exactly. Let's look at recent SC winners and who their #1Cs were.

Colorado - MacKinnon (elite)
Tampa - Stamkos (elite)
St. Louis - O'Reilly (solid #1, but not elite)
Washington - Kuznetsov (solid #1, but not elite)
Pittsburgh - Crosby (elite)
Chicago - Toews (solid #1, but not elite)
Los Angeles - Kopitar (solid #1, but not elite)

But if you look further at these rosters, you'll see that almost all of these teams have a solid 1-2 punch of good centres on their top two lines. So I wouldn't necessarily say that an elite #1C is completely necessary to be a Stanley Cup winner (but it can certainly help and improve your chances!), but more so that you need a deep lineup with lots of secondary scoring.

Do the Flames have that right now? Arguably no, as much as we like Backlund he's more a solid 3rd line centre on a deep team.

If Monahan returns to his old form and Lindholm doesn't regress without Gaudreau on his wing, maybe the Flames will get that 1-2 punch.

Otherwise if I were Treliving and looking to take the team to the next level, I'd be looking at trading/signing through free agency a 2C to complement Lindholm. I doubt the Flames will end up signing Kadri (I think he's out of their price range and wants to return to Colorado), but maybe the Flames could look at a trade this off-season, or before the trade deadline (once we know which form of Monahan we'll be getting) to acquire that 2C they really need.

Because of their superior defensive play, I'd argue that Toews and Kopitar are considered elite.

They are both going to the Hall of Fame, so that spells elite to me.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Matata

$8.25M cap hit based on a 67 point season, the rest of his careet he's sat at ~0.6ppg. Using Tkachuk math, Matt is due $12.8M.

Yeah this is what's missing in the Ottawa vs Calgary comparisons the last couple days.

Flames players all had career seasons coming off their ELC. PPG and 30 goal plus for both Gaudreau and Tkachuk. So tougher to "overpay" for potential and get guys locked in when they are already starts.

Ottawa has been able to overpay these guys to get term locked up because their players (Norris, Tkachuk, etc) have had good but not great seasons - so easier to lock them up for the full 8 years based on potential.

And they still overpaid to do it.

Brady Tkachuk signed his deal before last season where he got 67 points - when he signed he had seasons of 45 points in 71 games, 44 points in 71 games, and 36 points in 56 games. $8.25M was a huge overpayment for what he had produced to that point of his career. It was 10.07% of the cap hit when signed.

Compare that to Matthew who had 34 goals, 77 points in 80 games coming off his ELC.

His 3 year x $7M contract was 8.59% of the cap when he had signed. Even just the equivalent contract to Brady would have needed to be 7 years at $8.2M for Tkachuk.

Brady was a 0.6 PPG player for his career when he signed. Matthew was a 0.78 PPG at that poing of his career. That's 25% more production at that stage of their careers. So if you adjust for performance at that point of their careers it would have needed to be more like 7 years x $10.25M for Tkachuk to lock him up like the Sens locked up Brady.

Which checks out considering the Leafs gave Marner 6 x $10.9M coming off his 94 point season that same year. It might end up costing the Flames 2 years of Tkachuk but really at the time saving $3M in cap hit was probably the right call since the team was coming off a division winning season and needed the space.

[djsFlames]

Yeah. A solid 1-2 punch down the middle is always a great place to start when building a competitive team.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Matata

$8.25M cap hit based on a 67 point season, the rest of his careet he's sat at ~0.6ppg. Using Tkachuk math, Matt is due $12.8M.

Actually, he signed that contract after a 36 point season, based on 56 games.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Yeah. A solid 1-2 punch down the middle is always a great place to start when building a competitive team.

Solid D and a goalie are just as important. I think we have those.

[djsFlames]

Hypothetically, Lindholm - Kadri - Backlund - Monahan would objectively be elite center depth. Especially if Monahan is finally functional.

Then you still have that solid top 4 intact on defense, and the Flames have a really good floor. Even without the skill set of Gaudreau, it would be hard to suck with those components in place, especially in the pacific.

[FlamesAddiction]

Another thing about Tkachuk is that he has mentioned before that his mom is from Winnipeg and he has Canadian family connections. It might make him appreciate Canada more than a lot of other American players.

[Vinny01]

I think Tkachuk wants to be a captain like his Dad and his brother. If he signs with the Flames he will get the C. That could be something that helps tips things in favor of the flames.

6 year deal makes sense to me. He and Brady would be UFA at the same time and he would only be 30 so lots of time to play elsewhere or continue here

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Because of their superior defensive play, I'd argue that Toews and Kopitar are considered elite.

Lindholm just finished second in Selke voting. Wouldn't that count as superior defensive play?

I'm not calling him elite overall, but I think he's a perfectly cromulent #1 centre.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Lindholm just finished second in Selke voting. Wouldn't that count as superior defensive play?

I'm not calling him elite overall, but I think he's a perfectly cromulent #1 centre.

Another season or 2 like that and I think he gets into elite conversation for sure

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by littlereddevil

Exactly. Let's look at recent SC winners and who their #1Cs were.

Colorado - MacKinnon (elite)
Tampa - Stamkos (elite)
St. Louis - O'Reilly (solid #1, but not elite)
Washington - Kuznetsov (solid #1, but not elite)
Pittsburgh - Crosby (elite)
Chicago - Toews (solid #1, but not elite)
Los Angeles - Kopitar (solid #1, but not elite)

But if you look further at these rosters, you'll see that almost all of these teams have a solid 1-2 punch of good centres on their top two lines. So I wouldn't necessarily say that an elite #1C is completely necessary to be a Stanley Cup winner (but it can certainly help and improve your chances!), but more so that you need a deep lineup with lots of secondary scoring.

Do the Flames have that right now? Arguably no, as much as we like Backlund he's more a solid 3rd line centre on a deep team.

If Monahan returns to his old form and Lindholm doesn't regress without Gaudreau on his wing, maybe the Flames will get that 1-2 punch.

Otherwise if I were Treliving and looking to take the team to the next level, I'd be looking at trading/signing through free agency a 2C to complement Lindholm. I doubt the Flames will end up signing Kadri (I think he's out of their price range and wants to return to Colorado), but maybe the Flames could look at a trade this off-season, or before the trade deadline (once we know which form of Monahan we'll be getting) to acquire that 2C they really need.

Stamkos played like 1 period in their 2020 cup run to be fair

[ForeverFlameFan]

How many years would you guys re-sign Mangiapane to?

5m x 5?
5.5m x 6?
6m x 7?
6.25m x 8?

Am I off on these?

[Lanny_McDonald]

What do you believe Andrew Mangiapane is? Is he the guy who filled the net in the first two months of last season, or is he a more hot-and-cold player we've seen for the majority of his career? He's not a play driver and is more of an opportunist who finds the holes his line mates make for him. I think you pay him on what you think he's going to be, which is a 20-25 goal, 40-50 point second line player. You probably top out at $5M and try to get as much term as you can get. I think the sweet spot is six years, but the big question there is do you believe Mangiapane will be a consistent threat for that long? If you can structure the deal where you aren't paying as much toward the end of the deal, stretch it out. Otherwise go shorter term deal because he'll only be as good as the line mates he's playing with.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

What do you believe Andrew Mangiapane is? Is he the guy who filled the net in the first two months of last season, or is he a more hot-and-cold player we've seen for the majority of his career? He's not a play driver and is more of an opportunist who finds the holes his line mates make for him. I think you pay him on what you think he's going to be, which is a 20-25 goal, 40-50 point second line player. You probably top out at $5M and try to get as much term as you can get. I think the sweet spot is six years, but the big question there is do you believe Mangiapane will be a consistent threat for that long? If you can structure the deal where you aren't paying as much toward the end of the deal, stretch it out. Otherwise go shorter term deal because he'll only be as good as the line mates he's playing with.

Why do you believe he isn’t a play driver?

I know you don’t believe in stats, but Mang’s are quite impressive.

In Goals per 60 minutes played, Mangiapane has 1.628/60 Mins. That’s good for 21st in the league.

Mangiapane’s stats read like a guy who just needs to be elevated. If you were to look at someone who seems to be ready to take “that next step”, Mangiapane is that guy. He likely believes so as well, so I don’t believe he’s taking a long term deal without being paid for that potential. I also believe that if we pay for that potential, the deal will end up looking very good for the Flames. I think Mangiapane at like $6-$7M will end up looking as good as Lindholm does at his current rate (thanks to inflation/raising cap in coming years).

He’s also home grown. Keep in mind players like Hyman and Coleman got $5.5M and $4.9M long term and Mangiapane is better than both guys (and yes, Mang is better than both guys).