Upcoming Mangiapane contract discussion

[Matt Reeeeead]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Ok but the argument I'm giving is that Mangiapane SHOULD be on the PP. He hasn't been, for no good reason.

It makes sense to evaluate and compare players on the most level playing field possible. At even strength, Mangiapane laps much of his competition. That, to me, suggests he very much should and can do the same on the PP.

There are tons of excellent play drivers 5v5 that are not at all helpful on the PP.

Not to say Mangipane is necessarily one of those guys, but would like to see your reasoning based on particular skills he brings rather than assuming 5v5 will correlate similarly to PP. it doesn’t. At all. Very different skill sets.

Secondly, the statistics cited are interesting and factual and I think you could dig deeper on the context as to the “defensive strength” of opposition that he’s facing. I don’t have that at my finger tips but would be interesting to see how often he is facing top pair defenders, two way forwards, or what before declaring him elite offensively.

Also, as much as you cite everyone is being subjective, and you are being objective, a good analyst also could sliders the qualitative factors as to “how these stats are occurring”. Not once have you really painted an argument as to what the key skills mangiapane brings to the table to drive play. “Being a good play driver” is not a skill. It’s an outcome derived from numerous factors in an underlying skill set.

-is he someone with crazy puck skills?
-is he doing things that demonstrate a high IQ, if so, what?
-is he fast, good laterally, high acceleration?
-how would he age over the term?
-is he system player that has succeeded because he is in a perfect spot for his skill set? Linemates that complement him well?


You’ve got a hypothesis that this player is elite and has some credibility behind it based on some evidence. That’s great, and you’re also seem surprised that you’re being challenged by it, from a audience that is pretty smart on hockey and isn’t going to be swayed by one piece e of evidence.

Let’s go a bit deeper here and see what wise you come up with. There’s a lot you could do to make the hot take more convincing rather than getting into a boiler plate subjective v objective discussion. I’m interested to see what you come up with.


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[dino7c]

6M! the guy had a career high of 32 points

[TheScorpion]

Yeah I think Mangiapane has certainly shown himself to be someone with high-end puck skills. He's a good finisher. He's also demonstrated an ability to succeed with a variety of different linemates — we've seen him thrive both with Garnet Hathaway and Matt Tkachuk — which suggests to me he's smart enough to adapt his play style to suit the strengths of the guys he's with.

He needs to continue playing with his pace and tenacity. Mangiapane's coaches have raved about his motor. He arrived in Latvia and Gallant trusted him immediately. Gallant is a very demanding coach who has a real appreciation for workmanlike, versatile players.

I don't think Mangiapane is a system player because he's been effective under three different coaches and while playing on a variety of different lines. With Ryan, Backlund, and Lindholm as his centres, we've seen the exact same very effective two-way forward.

He's also managed to avoid significant injury to this point. You have to be cautious about anyone's durability but Mangiapane isn't a guy who's one step away from being too slow for the game. How would he age? I'd posit he'll be just fine, but I don't have much to go on, there.

[Matt Reeeeead]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Yeah I think Mangiapane has certainly shown himself to be someone with high-end puck skills. He's a good finisher. He's also demonstrated an ability to succeed with a variety of different linemates — we've seen him thrive both with Garnet Hathaway and Matt Tkachuk — which suggests to me he's smart enough to adapt his play style to suit the strengths of the guys he's with.

He needs to continue playing with his pace and tenacity. Mangiapane's coaches have raved about his motor. He arrived in Latvia and Gallant trusted him immediately. Gallant is a very demanding coach who has a real appreciation for workmanlike, versatile players.

I don't think Mangiapane is a system player because he's been effective under three different coaches and while playing on a variety of different lines. With Ryan, Backlund, and Lindholm as his centres, we've seen the exact same very effective two-way forward.

He's also managed to avoid significant injury to this point. You have to be cautious about anyone's durability but Mangiapane isn't a guy who's one step away from being too slow for the game. How would he age? I'd posit he'll be just fine, but I don't have much to go on, there.

I personally think what we have is a mini- Brandon Gallagher on our hands.

Mini isn’t to say size wise, but play style, mentality, work ethic, skills, and crazy play driving. Gallagher is elite in that result, even better than what Mangiapane has done recently.

Like Gallagher, mangiapane doesn’t have jaw dropping puck skills, but he does finish plays, and has great 5v5 point totals.

But he is somewhat limited in ice time when you play such a max effort style doesn’t necessarily lend itself to playing top top minutes without expecting a decline in rate stats, nor is he likely to be a needle mover on the PP, but more a contributor on the right usage.

The exciting opportunity is because of Mangiapane’s usage, he hasn’t put up big time points, and like Gallagher, comps wise, the system is slow to compensate those players properly, and it was really the 3rd contract where Gallagher finally got paid.

The opportunity for me is to see how many years you can get mangiapane signed for under $5m aav

With league revenues low right, and impacts from the escrow issues causing a likely flat short term cap, I’m not worried about mangiapane becoming an 8m player on his next contract, which is the only reason you would commit to him for 6m aav right now (to save on the back end of the deal).

I think he’s a great candidate for 4 or 5 years at sub 5, then see where he’s at age 30... my guess he won’t be quite as impactful at that age as he most guys’ athletic primes are more like 22-28 these days. Flames have him at the perfect time to get the perfect deal.... then let someone else give him Gallagher’s 3rd contract (where will get paid $6.5m well into his 30s).




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[TheScorpion]

I think Gallagher is actually a really shrewd comparison. That hadn't occurred to me before.

[timun]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

No trickery here at all. His all situation production was higher, I acknowledged that. That includes PP, SH, and would include 4x4 and 3x3 as well. I never said that his all situation production was solely due to PP time.

You very heavily implied that it's solely due to PP time.

You are very selectively picking and choosing the most flattering stats you possibly can to paint Mangiapane in an over-flatteringly good light. Not to say he's bad, not to say he doesn't have the potential to be better, but you don't hand out big-money contracts to forwards with a career high 32 points in a season: that's is absolutely complete and utter ****ing LUNACY.

And based on how the salary cap has grown $4.5M in 13-14 is the equivalent of $5.7M in an $81.5M cap.

$5.7M * 32/55 = $3.3M

Right in the ballpark of the $3.5M/yr I said I wouldn't offer him a nickel more than.

[TheScorpion]

32 points in 55 games is really not the same as 32 points in 82 games. There is a clear difference between Mangiapane's "32 point season" and your typical bottom-six guy scoring 32 points over a full season. That's a bad faith argument.

Is Kirill Kaprizov a 51-point player to you?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by timun

You very heavily implied that it's solely due to PP time.

You are very selectively picking and choosing the most flattering stats you possibly can to paint Mangiapane in an over-flatteringly good light. Not to say he's bad, not to say he doesn't have the potential to be better, but you don't hand out big-money contracts to forwards with a career high 32 points in a season: that's is absolutely complete and utter ****ing LUNACY.

Umm no you assumed that. If you read my original post I very clearly say “prolific special teams production” in regards to Marchand and actually don’t mention PP anywhere in regards to him, I specifically called it special teams which encompasses PP and PK.

Plus how did I selectively pick any stats here? Please explain what stats I refrained from showing.

I showed NHL total goals, total points, points per game, 5v5 goals, 5v5 points, 5v5 points per game, 5v5 goals per 60, 5v5 points per 60, 5v5 primary points per 60, Corsi %, and xGF%. Plus AHL goals, points, and points per game.

Sorry for not specifically splitting out PP and PK stats I guess...thought showing 14 different stats would have been good enough.

But sure other people keep throwing around “30 point player” without any weighting for games played, but me who actually went and pulled 14 different stats to compare the two players is “cherry picking”

Also in 13-14 Marchand had 53 points in 82 games. Mangiapanes 82 game pace is 47 points, it’s not fair to say it’s 32 points because he didn’t control Covid shortening the season.

$5.7 x 47/53 = $5.05M. That’s your own math so you shouldn’t get mad at that logic. And around $5M is exactly what I’ve said is fair the whole time.

[AustinL_NHL]

Andrew Mangiapane was the Flames' best forward at 5v5 this past season. By far offensively, and arguably defensively.

He has GROSSLY outperformed his contracts thus far and whatever he gets on his next deal, he will also likely outperform, especially if it comes in at under $5M.

Getting Mangiapane locked up on a long term deal (6+ years) under $5M would likely be Treliving's biggest win (right up there with Lindholm's contract).

The guy is a fuc**** stud and the underappreciation he gets on this board is past the comical point and starting to reach disappointing levels.

Mangiapane is an ELITE 5v5 offensive player.

Mangiapane is an ELITE 5v5 defensive player.

It's total BS that he hasn't gotten top unit PP time. The second he does will result in the ultimate breakout season.

[timun]

Marchand also had seasons of 55 points in 76 games, and 36 points in 45 games; even his first full season in the NHL he had 41 points in 77 games. Better than Andrew Mangiapane has ever done.

You absolutely are cherry-picking complementary stats, I don't care how many 5v5 points per 60 minutes while the blood moon is in Aquarius with Venus ascendent you want to quote: you're trying to paint a picture that Andrew Mangiapane and Brad Marchand are on a similar career track. They're not. Marchand is a categorically better player. He was then, he is now. Sorry to be the bearer of that news, but it's true.

As such any GM with half a brain would never EVER sign Andrew Mangiapane to a contract anywhere near $5M a year, let alone the $6M bandied about earlier, at this point in his career. It's asinine. If he turns into an 85-point-per-year player the calibre of Marchand then great, fine, pay the man. As of yet he's a decent middle-six winger, and you DO NOT SPEND THAT KIND OF MONEY ON THAT KIND OF PLAYER.

Thank **** you fools aren't Flames GM...

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

Andrew Mangiapane was the Flames' best forward at 5v5 this past season. By far offensively, and arguably defensively.

He has GROSSLY outperformed his contracts thus far and whatever he gets on his next deal, he will also likely outperform, especially if it comes in at under $5M.

Getting Mangiapane locked up on a long term deal (6+ years) under $5M would likely be Treliving's biggest win (right up there with Lindholm's contract).

The guy is a fuc**** stud and the underappreciation he gets on this board is past the comical point and starting to reach disappointing levels.

Mangiapane is an ELITE 5v5 offensive player.

Mangiapane is an ELITE 5v5 defensive player.

It's total BS that he hasn't gotten top unit PP time. The second he does will result in the ultimate breakout season.

Originally Posted by timun

Marchand also had seasons of 55 points in 76 games, and 36 points in 45 games; even his first full season in the NHL he had 41 points in 77 games. Better than Andrew Mangiapane has ever done.

You absolutely are cherry-picking complementary stats, I don't care how many 5v5 points per 60 minutes while the blood moon is in Aquarius with Venus ascendent you want to quote: you're trying to paint a picture that Andrew Mangiapane and Brad Marchand are on a similar career track. They're not. Marchand is a categorically better player. He was then, he is now. Sorry to be the bearer of that news, but it's true.

As such any GM with half a brain would never EVER sign Andrew Mangiapane to a contract anywhere near $5M a year, let alone the $6M bandied about earlier, at this point in his career. It's asinine. If he turns into an 85-point-per-year player the calibre of Marchand then great, fine, pay the man. As of yet he's a decent middle-six winger, and you DO NOT SPEND THAT KIND OF MONEY ON THAT KIND OF PLAYER.

Thank **** you fools aren't Flames GM...

The truth is somewhere in between these two posts.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by timun

Marchand also had seasons of 55 points in 76 games, and 36 points in 45 games; even his first full season in the NHL he had 41 points in 77 games. Better than Andrew Mangiapane has ever done.

You absolutely are cherry-picking complementary stats, I don't care how many 5v5 points per 60 minutes while the blood moon is in Aquarius with Venus ascendent you want to quote: you're trying to paint a picture that Andrew Mangiapane and Brad Marchand are on a similar career track. They're not. Marchand is a categorically better player. He was then, he is now. Sorry to be the bearer of that news, but it's true.

As such any GM with half a brain would never EVER sign Andrew Mangiapane to a contract anywhere near $5M a year, let alone the $6M bandied about earlier, at this point in his career. It's asinine. If he turns into an 85-point-per-year player the calibre of Marchand then great, fine, pay the man. As of yet he's a decent middle-six winger, and you DO NOT SPEND THAT KIND OF MONEY ON THAT KIND OF PLAYER.

Thank **** you fools aren't Flames GM...

The seasons are irrelevant to me when comparing their careers up to that point. Marchand was .61 PPG at that point of his career. Mangiapane was .43. I acknowledged that, it's honestly one of the first parts of the post.

And honestly points per 60 is not a cherry picked stat at all, it's becoming a more and more widely used stat because it helps normalize usage and minutes played.

I get it. You don't like advanced stats. But really all people do when they post BS like you just posted is admit their own ignorance. Nothing I posted is cherry picked, if I cherry picked I would have just shown the per 60 stats, it's not cherry picking when you show pretty much all the stats available. Get all worked up all you want but the numbers shared are just actual stats. Our interpretation of the stats can be different, that's fine, but nothing was cherry picked. I put more value in 5V5 stats, especially adjusted for GP and per 60 minutes, you put more value in the raw point production and that's fine.

And what I don't get is the stats actually back up the play from watching the games. It's not like Mangiapane looks like a plug if you watch the games, there is easily an argument that Mangiapane has been our most consistent forward the last two seasons, just from watching the games. Doesn't matter what line he is on, doesn't matter who he is playing with, he's generally noticeable in a postive way on the ice shift after shift.

I get it. It's cool to #### on every single Flames player right now. The organization is terrible, we should be tanking, everyone sucks....etc, etc. But honestly don't get why it's hard for people to admit that there actually might be something here with Mangiapane.

Go ask Gerard Gallant what he thinks of Mangiapane and the impact he's had on that team Canada team that was winless before Mangiapane got there, Mangiapane leads the tournment in PPG by a large margin, and Canada are now in the semi-finals.

[calumniate]

6*6 minus the times he ends up on his butt.. 5*4.5

[ForeverFlameFan]

I will say this: If Mangiapane doesn’t get re-signed, and talks go south, some team WILL offer sheet him. The offer sheet wouldn’t break the bank, someone would easily offer up a 5 x 5 if we don’t.

Mangiapane has all of the leverage right now to ask for more when he already has been severely underpaid for what he brings to the table.

[Erick Estrada]

While I'm happy he's getting some notoriety and is playing great it's important to put things into perspective. The World Championships are such a small sample size against largely inferior competition to the NHL. The comparisons being made in this thread to Brad Marchand are absolutely ridiculous and at best we are looking as a poor man's Gallagher who made $3.75 million this season at the age of 28. He's getting a big raise to $6.5 million which is an overpayment but at least he's earned it so to hear numbers like $5 million a season thrown around for Mangiapane is kind of crazy.

[1qqaaz]

Just give Mangiapane as much term as possible to the extent that it makes sense. This should have been their priority last summer (and many of us were saying this at the time). I think that was one of Treliving's biggest mistakes in the offseason. Although to be fair, Mangiapane had some say in the contract as well. And at least he's still an RFA.

Maybe 7 years at 5.2 mill, with a limited NTC. I would offer 8 years at the same term. Make him a lifer.

[Vinny01]

I could definitely see Zach Hyman setting the market for Mangiapane. RFA vs UFA but I do think they are similar players who are keys to their teams but overshadowed by the star players in front of them

[Burning Beard]

This board can be such a negative place some times. How dare anyone be excited about a late round draft pick who is working his butt off and becoming one of the most valuable pieces of this team. He will never be as good as McDavid so he's a dud! Brutal.

If the Flames are smart they make him an Assistant Captain this summer and lock him up for as long as possible, then tell every prospect and player that the Mangiapane way to play is the expected way to play.

[GioforPM]

Lindholm was at 16 goals, 44 points, in 82 games the year before Treliving signed him to $4.85. That’s about the PPG Mangiapane is at now.

Given a bit of a higher cap since then, yeah, $5M would be fair, though if he explodes the way Lindholm did it will look brilliant.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

This board can be such a negative place some times. How dare anyone be excited about a late round draft pick who is working his butt off and becoming one of the most valuable pieces of this team. He will never be as good as McDavid so he's a dud! Brutal.

If the Flames are smart they make him an Assistant Captain this summer and lock him up for as long as possible, then tell every prospect and player that the Mangiapane way to play is the expected way to play.

Good thing nobody has come even close to saying that then eh?