[PGT] Flames lose 7-3 to Edmonton...

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I mean since it happens "quite frequently" you should be able to find a mountain of examples of #1Cs with 500+ games at C being moved to wing.

Joe Thornton would be one, as he slowed down to Monahan levels of effectiveness.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I don't really get where the "Split Up Gaudreau and Monahan" angle comes from this year. They've been fine together this year and if anything we need to find them a RW.

TOI: 346 Minutes

Corsi For: 50.3%
Expected Goals For: 52.5%

Goals For: 13
Goals Against: 9

Even more with at least one of Gaudreau or Monahan on the ice this year we have 17 Goals For, and 11 Goals Against at 5v5.

You'd hope for higher GF volume but they are trying to be more responsible defensively and so far they've been okay at it.

The problem is we have 40 GF, and 45 GA with neither of them on the ice this year.

But if you cut it off to a small sample size ... when Sutter took over and four games, there is little doubt that the Monahan/Gaudreau line has struggled under the change in direction.

Ritchie is a team worst -10.4 rel CF%, Monahan 2nd worst at -4.9. Gaudreau a bit better but -4.1. Lucic and Backlund in the mix for issues too.

In terms of relative xGF% Ritchie, Monahan, Andersson and Gaudreau are the four worst.

It's a small sample size but you know Sutter is looking at it.

Lindholm/Dube and Tkachuk (who has a whole topic today talking about his slide) are +22%

[Jeff Lebowski]

Although he coughed one up in the first game, Smith really helps negate the forecheck/cycle game. Lindholm needed to get that one in the first. He was in close (but not too close so he could elevate) and he put it into Smith hoping for a hole.

You have to keep the puck away from him or carry it in and then make him go side to side and up/down.

[djsFlames]

Sutter won't be resigned to the way the team is.

Turning groups around and making them more competitive and detail oriented is what he does.

Figuring out Monahan and Gaudreau will be an interesting puzzle for him.

[FanIn80]

Let's just say I'm not very inclined to care about the opinions of people who suggest Tkachuk, at the age of 23, has already peaked and is "now on the decline" or that Monahan isn't an NHL-calibre center.

Tkachuk in the midst a bad half-season = an acceptable opinion.
Monahan not a play-driving center = an acceptable opinion.

Tkachuk has already peaked; Monahan not an NHL center = zero credibility.

[stamps]

That sucked .... back at it Friday in TO .... GFG

[stamps]

It’s like the beast inside Chucky has been chained down ....

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

But if you cut it off to a small sample size ... when Sutter took over and four games, there is little doubt that the Monahan/Gaudreau line has struggled under the change in direction.

Ritchie is a team worst -10.4 rel CF%, Monahan 2nd worst at -4.9. Gaudreau a bit better but -4.1. Lucic and Backlund in the mix for issues too.

In terms of relative xGF% Ritchie, Monahan, Andersson and Gaudreau are the four worst.

It's a small sample size but you know Sutter is looking at it.

Lindholm/Dube and Tkachuk (who has a whole topic today talking about his slide) are +22%

Funny part is the coaches usage has shown the opposite at 5v5.

If you look at our centers here is the usage under Sutter.

Backlund: 58 Minutes - 78% Offensive Zone
Monahan: 53 Minutes - 56% Offensive Zone
Lindholm: 48 Minutes - 63% Offensive Zone
Ryan: 44 Minutes - 64.5% Offensive Zone

Monahan's line is playing the second most minutes behind Backlund at 5v5 under Sutter. And they are getting the lowest share of offensive Zone Starts.

Also outside of yesterday the team has played pretty good overall, and I kind of hate relative in that scenario where every line is above 50% Corsi. Sure Monahan/Gaudreau have been worse than their peers relatively, but they from a Corsi perspective they are carrying possession, just not generating enough quality. Ritchie is dragging them down a bit too as the only Flames forward under Sutter that is sub 50%

Backlund: 54.08% Corsi For, 51.3% xGF, 4 GF - 5 GA (4 of those last night against McDavid)
Monahan: 53.5% Corsi For, 44.8% xGF, 1 GF - 1 GA
Lindholm: 60.5% Corsi For, 73.2% xGF, 3 GF - 0 GA
Ryan: 63.9% Corsi For, 60.0% xGF, 2 GF - 2 GA (Both GA were in Game 1 against EDM)

IMO Sutter is stress testing what he has in Gaudreau and Monahan. He's giving them more defensive zone starts, playing tougher matchups, and trying to see if they can handle it.

Against Montreal they saw a lot of Suzuki and Gallagher line.

Against Edmonton they saw a lot of Draisaitl and Yamamoto.

He's actually really been giving the Lindholm and Ryan line the high water and trying the easier matchups and lower TOI. Where it's Backlund and Monahan getting the tougher minutes/matchups and more TOI.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bingo

But if you cut it off to a small sample size ... when Sutter took over and four games, there is little doubt that the Monahan/Gaudreau line has struggled under the change in direction.

Ritchie is a team worst -10.4 rel CF%, Monahan 2nd worst at -4.9. Gaudreau a bit better but -4.1. Lucic and Backlund in the mix for issues too.

In terms of relative xGF% Ritchie, Monahan, Andersson and Gaudreau are the four worst.

It's a small sample size but you know Sutter is looking at it.

Lindholm/Dube and Tkachuk (who has a whole topic today talking about his slide) are +22%

Lindholm and Dube have looked fine to me, so I'm wondering if, to an extent, Tkachuk has been brought up by his linemates.

[Gaskal]

I wouldn't say Matthew is "in decline" but lately it seems like the play dies more often than not when he has the puck, and that to me is a confidence issue. To his credit it's actually gotten better in the Edmonton games and I can tell he's trying, but trying to do too much. He is forcing too much fancy stuff. Yes he is a high skill player but really needs to focus on the things he does best, his defensive shutdown/agitator game, instead of forcing the between the legs crap.

I would absolutely take 2016 Tkachuk over the version we are seeing, Darryl would have adored him. He would always, 100% make the right play, the high percentage play. Dumping it in instead of trying to deke a defender wide. Sliding it back to the point to Gio instead of trying to wire a pass through two defenders.

Perhaps it's because he feels the pressure of that contract and the offensive production it implies, that he wants to try-hard the offensive stuff? Either way, needs to get back to base-Tkachuk first.

[Toonage]

I mean, Tkachuk has flat out said in interviews he feels its on him has he not? Of course he's putting too much pressure on himself.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article...current-slide/

"I’m putting all the pressure on myself to turn this thing around for us,” said Tkachuk, whose uninspiring play of late mirrors that of his team.

“It starts tonight and I’m prepared to do whatever I can. For me personally, I’ve got to get going. All the pressure should be on me to perform. It shouldn’t be on anyone else. I haven’t been at my best and it’s time to get going and help this team get some wins. I haven’t performed the way I’d like personally, so all the pressure should be on me to try to provide emotion from the drop of the puck tonight.”

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

I wouldn't say Matthew is "in decline" but lately it seems like the play dies more often than not when he has the puck, and that to me is a confidence issue. To his credit it's actually gotten better in the Edmonton games and I can tell he's trying, but trying to do too much. He is forcing too much fancy stuff. Yes he is a high skill player but really needs to focus on the things he does best, his defensive shutdown/agitator game, instead of forcing the between the legs crap.

I would absolutely take 2016 Tkachuk over the version we are seeing, Darryl would have adored him. He would always, 100% make the right play, the high percentage play. Dumping it in instead of trying to deke a defender wide. Sliding it back to the point to Gio instead of trying to wire a pass through two defenders.

Perhaps it's because he feels the pressure of that contract and the offensive production it implies, that he wants to try-hard the offensive stuff? Either way, needs to get back to base-Tkachuk first.

The assist to Lindholm was vintage Tkachuk - control the puck behind the net, simple pass to the open guy. I thought this was one of Tkachuk's better games in the last month or so.

Th try hard stuff: I said yesterday, doesn't it seem like the high hockey IQ guys - Tkachuk, Johnny, Backlund, Lucic -those are the same guys who are giving the puck away a lot. Maybe they are just trying to force too much fancy stuff.

[Flames0910]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The assist to Lindholm was vintage Tkachuk - control the puck behind the net, simple pass to the open guy. I thought this was one of Tkachuk's better games in the last month or so.

Th try hard stuff: I said yesterday, doesn't it seem like the high hockey IQ guys - Tkachuk, Johnny, Backlund, Lucic -those are the same guys who are giving the puck away a lot. Maybe they are just trying to force too much fancy stuff.

100% agree. I think this is what Sutter refers to as it not being about effort level but learning to play as a group.

Based on Tkachuk's comments before the last Edmonton blowout, I sort of wonder if previous coaches put more emphasis on someone having to "be the guy who takes the reins", looking for "big game players" and people who "step up in big moments" rather than looking at it as the whole team needing to do it together.

Actually thinking about it, the old comment about Tkachuk being responsible for dragging the team into the game is a bit of a weird thing to rely on him for and sort of a bad message to him and the team. Yes you need motivators but it's a lot of responsibility for a young player to take on night in and night out, especially when the team is losing.

[Classic_Sniper]

Seeing a ton of Gaudreau-Monahan splitting talk and I’m not completely opposed to it. But I think the problem is a lot more obvious then it’s being made out to be. These 2 are sort of specialists, they score the majority of their goals off the rush, so they need someone who can help facilitate that. Ritchie is not that guy.

Anyone remember how 13 & 23 looked with guys like Chiasson, Brouwer, Neal and etc? Well that’s what they currently look like. What Gaudreau and Monahan really need is another Hudler, Ferland or Lindholm; someone who can think the game at their wavelength, hide their flaws and accentuate their strengths.

It’s pretty amazing how feast or famine Gaudreau and Monahan are, but it’s true. They’re extremely linemate dependent and linemate sensitive. They can look like a top 5 dynamic duo in the league or a top 5 dynamic dud depending on who their RW is.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

That's just it. Isn't his QO in the $9M range? That's outrageous salary territory for MT, IMO.

MT at $6-6.5M with term, I'm thrilled. Seeing how hard the last deal was to get done, I don't see a scenario that plays out with the Flames declining the QO and negotiating a long term deal at a lower cap, but hope I'm wrong.

Yes...if it gets that far he would have to be qualified at that number.

That does not preclude him signing a longer term deal at a lower number though.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Let's just say I'm not very inclined to care about the opinions of people who suggest Tkachuk, at the age of 23, has already peaked and is "now on the decline" or that Monahan isn't an NHL-calibre center.

Tkachuk in the midst a bad half-season = an acceptable opinion.
Monahan not a play-driving center = an acceptable opinion.

Tkachuk has already peaked; Monahan not an NHL center = zero credibility.

To be fair, when I said Monahan isn't an NHL option right now, it's because he hasn't been a play-driving centre for basically his entire career. Those two points are heavily intertwined. This year, his shortcomings have been heavily exacerbated by his lack of production, which was his one previously reliable saving grace. Monahan has 3 goals in 28 games at 5v5 despite plum deployment next to the team's best offensive player.

I really don't think it's unfair to question whether he's been an NHL-calibre centre option this year. What has he been doing this year on a consistent basis to drive play? I would argue that his only notable impacts this year have come on the power play. His (excellent) attribute—consistent goal-scoring—that absolved him from much of the criticism levelled towards him has dried up. When he doesn't score... what does he do?

[Bingo]

The big thing on Monahan is where you sit on his shooting percentage.

He was a 13-14% guy for years, and then hit the wall last year at just under 9 and this year he's at 6%.

6% isn't sustainable.

His expected individual goals / 60 hasn't moved.

It's getting to be a big sample size, but there is certainly a good amount of correction coming. He's due.

[TheScorpion]

I think he's certainly due to produce more but I think the Flames' best top-six alignment would be to run with Backlund and Lindholm as the centres and take some of the responsibility off Monahan's shoulders. Let him be deployed as a primary scoring threat without having to cover as much ground. I think his game would really improve if he was used in a simpler fashion.

I don't think Monahan would be well-suited in a bottom-six role. He's a top-six forward and the positive regression will come. But I also just think they might need to give him a different look out there. Right now, I'm not sure if his ideal deployment is as a top-six centre. I think he would improve with a shift to the wing, temporary or permanent.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

To be fair, when I said Monahan isn't an NHL option right now, it's because he hasn't been a play-driving centre for basically his entire career. Those two points are heavily intertwined. This year, his shortcomings have been heavily exacerbated by his lack of production, which was his one previously reliable saving grace. Monahan has 3 goals in 28 games at 5v5 despite plum deployment next to the team's best offensive player.

I really don't think it's unfair to question whether he's been an NHL-calibre centre option this year. What has he been doing this year on a consistent basis to drive play? I would argue that his only notable impacts this year have come on the power play. His (excellent) attribute—consistent goal-scoring—that absolved him from much of the criticism levelled towards him has dried up. When he doesn't score... what does he do?

This is pretty much all true. But I mean, I’m probably more biased then anyone on the subject of Monahan since I’ve never been sold on him dating all the way back to his rookie year and that’s saying something considering how many 30 goal seasons he’s had.

But to me, he’s a bit of a one trick pony. Does most of his goal scoring in one fashion which is bad because if the opposition takes it away like they have in recent times or in the playoffs, then what can he do to evolve? The answer seems to be nothing so far, he just doesn’t score then. He can’t play a 2 way or shut down role, can’t be a physical presence either. He’s kind of stuck in no man’s lane right now and we as fans can only hope that eventually he figures out how to score at a 30 goal clip again.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The big thing on Monahan is where you sit on his shooting percentage.

He was a 13-14% guy for years, and then hit the wall last year at just under 9 and this year he's at 6%.

6% isn't sustainable.

His expected individual goals / 60 hasn't moved.

It's getting to be a big sample size, but there is certainly a good amount of correction coming. He's due.

I don’t think I buy into the shooting percentage thing at all. I mean, does it look like he’s on the cusp of exploding at any given moment? Is he getting chances every night that are just hitting the post or grazing the crossbar which will eventually go in for him? Or does it look more like on any given night he’s not noticeable and not dangerous at all? I think it’s more the latter at this point.

That’s Sean Monahan unfortunately, he’s sort of a one trick pony as I just said. He scores in close and can elevate in tight where he usually doesn’t have the puck on his stick for more then a second.

He’s not the type of goal scorer who can go end to end, or wrap it around from behind the net, or steal a puck and walk in on a breakaway or one time it from out of nowhere or wire it from the flank off the half-boards. Where talking about a very limited number of ways Monahan can score goals here and the opposition is finding ways to limit those opportunities on most nights.

Now maybe Treliving makes a trade for a RW who can solve this problem and that guy can distribute the puck or create space to open things up for Gaudreau to find Monahan, but it doesn’t seem like that’s coming anytime soon.