Didn’t a media outlet call Georgia for Biden yesterday for a brief period? Or maybe not call, but I certainly remember something from a news source that said Biden would win it. I remember looking at the map and not understanding what they were talking about at the time.
Yeah I think you're right, that NYT dial thing was favoring Biden at round 60% probability when I tuned out last night. Gone from their website today.
AP has Trump's lead in Georgia down to 32,858. The less optimistic news is that they've used up almost all of the outstanding vote in Dekalb County, which was the best county for Biden in the state (lots of people and 80% of them for Biden). That was at 89% earlier, and is now 97% in according to the NYT. The best Biden state with significant votes outstanding is Clayton county, which is a strong Biden area but has fewer people than Fulton or Dekalb. That one has maybe 15,000 votes outstanding. There are other pro-Biden areas with votes outstanding, but they're much closer - +24, +1, +37, +17.
There are also a number of heavy Trump areas with absentee votes outstanding. They are less populous, but they could be enough to just keep pushing his lead slightly out of reach, such that GA runs out of votes to count before Biden catches up.
I still think it's trending towards a sub-10k win for someone but it's really impossible to tell who at this point. I don't think it makes sense to say either guy is favoured.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
AP has Trump's lead in Georgia down to 32,858. The less optimistic news is that they've used up almost all of the outstanding vote in Dekalb County, which was the best county for Biden in the state (80% for Biden). That was at 89% earlier, and is now 97% in according to the NYT. The best Biden state with significant votes outstanding is Clayton county, which is a strong Biden area but has fewer people than Fulton or Dekalb. That one has maybe 15,000 votes outstanding. There are other pro-Biden areas with votes outstanding, but they're much closer - +24, +1, +37, +17.
There are also a number of heavy Trump areas with absentee votes outstanding. They are less populous, but they could be enough to just keep pushing his lead slightly out of reach, such that GA runs out of votes to count before Biden catches up.
I still think it's trending towards a sub-10k win for someone but it's really impossible to tell who at this point. I don't think it makes sense to say either guy is favoured.
I don't feel like staying up late again, so let's just wrap this up Georgia let's go.
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Yeah, I'm on the PA website and I'm way less confident. There are about 760,000 mail ballots outstanding. However, only 165,000 of those are in Philadelphia or Allegheny.
There are 77,000 in York county (Trump +25 on Election Day), 10,000 in Crawford (Trump +59), 12,000 in Mercer (Trump +42), 4000+ in Greene (Trump +65), 4500 in Tioga (Trump +66), 5000+ in Armstrong (Trump +64), and 5000 in Carbon (Trump +46), among other places.
So assuming that the remaining mail-in ballots to be counted will be heavily (60+%) Biden so as to erase the current lead seems... unlikely.
Yeah, just doing the math based on those remaining numbers and the existing vote spread in each county, it looks like Biden would need to outperform the existing spreads by about 25 points (so if he's down 10 points in a county, he'd need to be up 15 in mail-in votes, of if he's up 20 he'd need to be up 45 with mail-in votes) to make up the difference. Maybe that'll happen? But it seems pretty optimistic.
Yeah, just doing the math based on those remaining numbers and the existing vote spread in each county, it looks like Biden would need to outperform the existing spreads by about 25 points (so if he's down 10 points in a county, he'd need to be up 15 in mail-in votes, of if he's up 20 he'd need to be up 45 with mail-in votes) to make up the difference. Maybe that'll happen? But it seems pretty optimistic.
could be done, he returns 4 to 1 in the philly area
__________________
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Both Nates seem relatively confident in Pennsylvania.
The fact that they're 100,000+ votes behind the actual PA website counting dashboard makes me nervous that they're not looking at it, and aren't paying attention to where the outstanding ballots are from. If they could speak to that and explain why it's not a concern, their confidence would be a lot more compelling to me.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
The fact that they're 100,000+ votes behind the actual PA website counting dashboard makes me nervous that they're not looking at it, and aren't paying attention to where the outstanding ballots are from. If they could speak to that and explain why it's not a concern, their confidence would be a lot more compelling to me.
Me too, I find the disconnect odd when both these guys have large media horse power behind them to have teams look at these things.
Both have done a much better job identifying the concerns in Arizona.
