2020/2021 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[Jeff Lebowski]

CGY needs to see Hanifin take a step too. His scouting reports were like offensive d man who needs to learn the defensive side.

I want to see him replace some of that Brodie-esque skate it out ability. Heiskanen and Brodie kind of do similar things with their feet (to different degrees). Brodie could skate it into the ozone and hold on to it.

Hanifin is very conservative in his game, imo, he needs to take some smart risks offensively. Use those talents - get up the ice and get the opponent retreating with your skating ability

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

What is "fancy" about what I'm saying there?

Andrew Mangiapane faces tough competition.

Andrew Mangiapane had 17 even strength goals while playing below 14 minutes a night.

There's nothing fancy being touted here. They are basic stats and a simplistic comparison of production vs. ice time.

Sean Monahan had a bad season, and the top line struggled significantly and again let us down in the playoffs during 5v5 play. We can dance around that all we want, but until you improve that, the issue will persist. So even if we keep Monahan, why would we trade Mangiapane for Reinhart when Mangiapane is the better player? Because Reinhart is a RHS? Well, that's a moronic idea.

Yeah man do I get tired of the term fancy.

It's simple counting, and Mangiapane's limited sample size says he can drive play. That's a good thing.

If you want to trade him for Reinhart you can lean on his slide in the playoffs (step back), the sample size, Reinhart's draft pedigree. The Fact that Reinhart does and will make more.

But don't try and ignore what Mangiapane has done by calling fancy stats or a mirage. This isn't a causal model. It's simple counting.

[Monahammer]

What I've just read is that some of you would rather trade Monahan for a player than Mangiapane for the same player.

There is no statistical argument that would make me accept this. If Monahan was playing 2nd line minutes on the wing I bet his stats look better too. Foolish.

[bax]

Trading Mangiapane and Hanifin for Ristolainen and Reinhart is truly awful stuff.

I don't think I need to get into the details but Hanifin is clearly more valuable than Ristolainen.

Reinhart will likely be substantially more expensive than Mangiapane and be a drag on the defensive side of the puck. You would be paying for draft pedigree.

5 on 5 stats from last season:

Reinahart: 69 GP 16 Goals 19 Assists 35 points 20 Takeaways 23 Giveaways

Mangiapane: 68 GP 17 Goals 16 Assists 33 points 38 Takeaways 29 Giveaways

Maybe we should just lock Mangiapane up long term for a cheap cap hit while we still can?

[Icon]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

What I've just read is that some of you would rather trade Monahan for a player than Mangiapane for the same player.

There is no statistical argument that would make me accept this. If Monahan was playing 2nd line minutes on the wing I bet his stats look better too. Foolish.

I think the argument feels like it's either:

Mangi +, for Reinhart

or

Monahan, for Reinhart + (and here the + is Cozens and maybe a pick)


Where the first option's debatable, the second is better player now for a chance on more better players later.

If we're retooling, the first option is ok. If it's part of a larger move to restructure the team, the second is the way to go.

[Enoch Root]

There is nothing wrong with the stats, just the conclusions.

I am not a Reinhart fan and am not looking for the Flames to acquire him. But he is better than Mangiapane.

Is he worth the extra money? Now that is a very debatable issue. Let's say it's $5M vs $3M... if the cost difference is that much or more, I would rather keep Mangiapane. For a difference of $1M or less, I'll take Reinhart all day.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

What I've just read is that some of you would rather trade Monahan for a player than Mangiapane for the same player.

There is no statistical argument that would make me accept this. If Monahan was playing 2nd line minutes on the wing I bet his stats look better too. Foolish.

If you're suggesting Monahan plays harder minutes by being the #1 centre, you'd be incorrect - and it is in my post. Andrew Mangiapane faces the 3rd toughest minutes on the team behind only Tkachuk and Lindholm. Why do you think his stats would look better playing on the 2nd line? Monahan played 18+ minutes last year, while Mangiapane played less than 14 - are you suggesting Monahan would have better stats if he played less minutes? Or are you incorrectly assuming that Monahan faces tougher competition than Mangiapane?

I'm not outright saying Monahan for Reinhart - because that would be a brutal trade for Calgary. However, Monahan for Reinhart + Cozens could be something worth evaluating.

[Wastedyouth]

Lol, Ristolainen is absolute garbage. There are league minimum cost contract guys floating around that bring more to a team than he does.

Woof.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Ha ha ha. Yes.

Andrew Mangiapane is on the brink of establishing himself as a top-end, play driving winger, and in the situation where we could potentially sign him longterm where he'll be able to outplay his contract by a good amount.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1316185674597367808

https://twitter.com/user/status/1284301301090639872

Andrew Mangiapane and Sam Reinhart both scored 17 EV goals in 2019/2020 but Mangiapane did it while averaging 13:42 of ice-time per night, while Reinhart did it while playing 20:38 a night - and with all that extra time, including significant PP time, he managed to score a minor 5 goals more than Mangiapane, all of which came on the PP. Mangiapane also did it in 68 games, whereas Reinhart did it in 69 - while also playing with Jack Eichel both during 5v5 play and on the PP. Andrew Mangiapane is being ridiculously underrated.

I think the conversation should be more focused around Sean Monahan Vs. Sam Reinhart, rather than Andrew Mangiapane.

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah man do I get tired of the term fancy.

It's simple counting, and Mangiapane's limited sample size says he can drive play. That's a good thing.

If you want to trade him for Reinhart you can lean on his slide in the playoffs (step back), the sample size, Reinhart's draft pedigree. The Fact that Reinhart does and will make more.

But don't try and ignore what Mangiapane has done by calling fancy stats or a mirage. This isn't a causal model. It's simple counting.

Nowhere did anyone say he sucks. FFS, the fact that he can be reasonably be placed in a trade discussion to add a full time quality RHS (Flames are looking for one, am I wrong? Thus taking away Mangiapanes spot?) winger/center over a pure winger(oh hey, a variable the stats don't give you) whom the Flames like but perhaps aren't comfortable paying term and dollars to (Ferland 2.0) says enough about what he is.

Fact is you can throw simple counting stats, fancy stats or whatever math you want, it doesn't matter when you're talking about trading Monahan vs. Mangiapane. The simplest explanation is you don't trade from a position of weakness over a position of strength. So of you want to keep a player who is trending nicely towards something more impactful over a pure established successful player, then do so at the strongest position..

Its not hard.

Long and short of it, if you're not moving mangiapane, you're moving Tkachuk or Gaudreau, not the center.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Nowhere did anyone say he sucks. FFS, the fact that he can be reasonably be placed in a trade discussion to add a full time quality RHS (Flames are looking for one, am I wrong? Thus taking away Mangiapanes spot?) winger/center over a pure winger(oh hey, a variable the stats don't give you) whom the Flames like but perhaps aren't comfortable paying term and dollars to (Ferland 2.0) says enough about what he is.

Fact is you can throw simple counting stats, fancy stats or whatever math you want, it doesn't matter when you're talking about trading Monahan vs. Mangiapane. The simplest explanation is you don't trade from a position of weakness over a position of strength. So of you want to keep a player who is trending nicely towards something more impactful over a pure established successful player, then do so at the strongest position..

Its not hard.

Long and short of it, if you're not moving mangiapane, you're moving Tkachuk or Gaudreau, not the center.

Ba by Johnny

[868904]

Ok, some of you have convinced me that there really isn't much difference between Reinhart and Mangiapane, but I think there's something else at play here if this rumour has any legs.

I think the Flames might be able to get Reinhart under team control for longer if they acquire him, likely a 5 x $5 type deal.

Whereas with Mangiapane, realistically, they probably only have about 2 or 3 years of control left. I doubt the Mangiapane camp will sign anything long term at the $3 million range and will work towards UFA status as quickly as possible, unless the Flames decide to give him a 5 x $5 deal, which they won't given the small sample size of his work and also the need to make the cap work.

If this deal happens, it could be more of a player control issue.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I am saying this as a guy who had Reinhart ranked 1st in his draft year, and was hoping that the Flames would draft him. I liked his IQ and his 200ft game, and his offensive abilities (shooting and especially playmaking).


I no longer think he is 'special'. He is slow and soft. This team will not be more difficult to play against with him in the lineup. Although I think he carries much more value than Mangiapane does, I would actually rather have Mangiapane in the lineup over Reinhart, at the very least when in the playoffs. Mangiapane is faster and harder on pucks, and I think he will continue to improve. With that being said, I wouldn't necessarily hate a Mangiapane for Reinhart swap - the Flames win the 'value' portion of the trade by a longshot - but will the Flames really be better?


I don't think Treliving is after Reinhart at all. He went after Anderson and lost out, but aside from RHS RW, that's where the similarities end for me. Anderson is a power-forward with very good skating ability. I think Treliving is looking to upgrade the size and tenacity on the Flames.



I don't know what kind of trade Treliving has in the burners, but I kind of hope that it won't be involving Reinhart. Lindholm is more physical, way more tenacious, and out-skates Reinhart by a very wide margin - but he hasn't been moving any needles in the playoffs either. Flames just need a skilled, tenacious, quick forward that can slot into the top line RW spot and push Lindholm down to Backlund's line, and pushes Mangiapane to the 3rd with Lucic down to the 4th. That's the one move in the forward group that I would love to see happen.


Also, Reinhart is going to most likely want 5+ million a season to re-sign. I don't think he is worth that. Eichel may not have too many primary assists on his goals, but Eichel sure makes a tonne of room out there for him.


I am not sure who can be available for that top RW spot, but it just needs someone with size and skill, especially if Ward is still going to have the Flames play chip and chase hockey as a 5-man unit (something I hope he doesn't do). I also don't want another slow player on that line alongside Monahan, or another slow player on Tkachuk's line. Aside from being a fairly skilled RHS, I just don't see a fit for Reinhart on this team.

[Monahammer]

FWIW there's an ongoing thread on HF about most improved teams. Many unbiased fans have put Calgary forward.

Perhaps we are all too tough on our own squad.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

FWIW there's an ongoing thread on HF about most improved teams. Many unbiased fans have put Calgary forward.

Perhaps we are all too tough on our own squad.

By most accounts the Flames should be a playoff team (for the third year in a row). What we are concerned about is that the Flames won't make it out of the first round.

That is the new margin of success. We want to be legit contenders, not just another Minnesota Wild.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Do many fans think we got worse short term? How?

I don't count the Hamonic loss as he wasn't in the playoffs anyways.

So Markstrom>>>Talbot and Tanev meets a more significant need than Brodie (especially without Hamonic). I'm not sure how anyone can think we got worse unless they really liked Gustafson? Lol. Anyone else of note worth mentioning that I forgot?

It's more about long term. In 7 years will Markstrom still be worth his contract, will Tanev be in 4?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

There is nothing wrong with the stats, just the conclusions.

I am not a Reinhart fan and am not looking for the Flames to acquire him. But he is better than Mangiapane.

Is he worth the extra money? Now that is a very debatable issue. Let's say it's $5M vs $3M... if the cost difference is that much or more, I would rather keep Mangiapane. For a difference of $1M or less, I'll take Reinhart all day.

There can be errors in extrapolating for sure.

I'm a commodity trader, and the number of time I've had researchers suggest the trend will continue because ... well it has to this point and been wrong? I've lost count.

But the conclusions are fine if they're framed.

Mangiapane plays on a line with good two way players and doesn't drag them down. That's a plus.

Does he make them even better? That's certainly the direction of the data.

But it's really only 25 games of data, and with that there's a danger.

If Mangiapane is a top six forward with huge possession metrics and five on five production you don't move him. If he had a good 20 games, and someone reads too much into that you do.

But they better get it right.

Kind of like Bennett and his playoff performance. Start of something? Keep him. Small sample size vs large sample size? Move him if someone buys into the playoff hype.

[Vinny01]

I think the Flames are still looking to shake up the forward group. I am less convinced now that they are trading Gaudreau or Monahan because Taylor Hall did not sign here. I find it hard to see the Flames winning a hockey trade involving Gaudreau or Monahan but I thought it made sense to trade Gaudreau for a futures based package and potentially hit a homer up while signing Hall to a long term deal to replace Johnny. Had the Flames traded Johnny for Reinhart and the 8th pick this summer and then signed Hall we would have Hall, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Reinhart as top 6 wingers along with Rossi/Perfetti.

With Hall out of the picture I find it really hard to see the Flames making a Gaudrea/Monahan hockey trade and win. I get nervous they maybe they would take on Voracek. More likely I think both players stay.

If they are shaking up the forwards I think Mangipane and Hanifin make the most sense as trade chips.

[SuperMatt18]

Issue is the contract in a Mangiapane for Reinhart swap.

Reinhart is a guy that's produced similar at 5v5 but has been given more opportunity on the PP to drive up his counting stats which will impact his contract.

So all you're really doing is getting a RH shot, who is going to cost you more because of his draft pedigree/PP counting stats.

I honestly think if it's Reinhart being traded here that it's likely Monahan (or Gaudreau) as part of the package the other way, if just for contract/cap reasons alone.

Let's use Monahan as the example:

Monahan - 3 x $6.375M
Rittich - 1 x $2.75M

$9.125M

for

Reinhart (probably something like 5 x $5.25)
Montour (1 x $3.85M)
Mittelstadt (probably around $1M x 1)
Pick

~$10.1M

Flames add a top 6 RW, a RH offensive d-man, and a center prospect.

Flames become:

Gaudreau - Lindholm - Reinhart
Tkachuk - Backlund - Mangiapane
Lucic - Bennett - Dube
Mittelstadt - Ryan - Gawdin

Giordano - Andersson
Valimaki - Tanev
Hanifin - Montour
Kylington

Markstrom
Domingue (Wasn't great last year but was good enough for Tampa two seasons ago)

Could look similar with Gaudreau swapped in instead. I don't love if but I could see that being something that Treliving looked at...very similar structure to something like the Hamilton trade.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

By most accounts the Flames should be a playoff team (for the third year in a row). What we are concerned about is that the Flames won't make it out of the first round.

That is the new margin of success. We want to be legit contenders, not just another Minnesota Wild.

We were a playoff team last year, and if by objective accounts we have improved since last year, then we should be a minor contender at least. I personally think we have a better roster than what Vancouver took deep into second round.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Issue is the contract in a Mangiapane for Reinhart swap.

Reinhart is a guy that's produced similar at 5v5 but has been given more opportunity on the PP to drive up his counting stats which will impact his contract.

So all you're really doing is getting a RH shot, who is going to cost you more because of his draft pedigree/PP counting stats.

I honestly think if it's Reinhart being traded here that it's likely Monahan (or Gaudreau) as part of the package the other way, if just for contract/cap reasons alone.

Let's use Monahan as the example:

Monahan - 3 x $6.375M
Rittich - 1 x $2.75M

$9.125M

for

Reinhart (probably something like 5 x $5.25)
Montour (1 x $3.85M)
Mittelstadt (probably around $1M x 1)
Pick

~$10.1M

Flames add a top 6 RW, a RH offensive d-man, and a center prospect.

Flames become:

Gaudreau - Lindholm - Reinhart
Tkachuk - Backlund - Mangiapane
Lucic - Bennett - Dube
Mittelstadt - Ryan - Gawdin

Giordano - Andersson
Valimaki - Tanev
Hanifin - Montour
Kylington

Markstrom
Domingue (Wasn't great last year but was good enough for Tampa two seasons ago)

Could look similar with Gaudreau swapped in instead. I don't love if but I could see that being something that Treliving looked at...very similar structure to something like the Hamilton trade.

We lose a Monahan trade involving worst centres unless the main piece coming back has potential to be a better centre than Monahan. Cozens is the only potential prospect that Buffalo has to fit the bill.