It's not a videogame,.the guy has to want to sign here....deals signed with other teams aren't really relevant. Flames don't get first right of refusal on all contracts
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That was defensemen, Bartkowski. A goalie just as to be an RFA.
Tre did sign a goalie (Tom McCollum) just to meet the expansion criteria.
Quote:
According to a report from The Hockey News, the Calgary Flames have added to their organizational depth in net and managed to solve a pending expansion draft problem.
The club has reportedly signed goaltender Tom McCollum to a two-year, two-way deal. According to the report, he’ll make $575,000 at the NHL level in 2016-17 and $650,000 in 2017-18 (which would place the AAV at $612,500). More importantly, his signing means the Flames have a goaltender that they can expose in the upcoming expansion draft.
Mock if you must, but would you say Troy Brouwer was an absolute disaster as a Calgary Flame? Because that's where this is concerning to me - the underlying numbers are comparable.
Of course you don't make your decisions by only using analytics, but they are there (and teams have better models), and they can be helpful.
The problem is that there is - must be - a distribution of results, around the average. And there is a random element that, in hockey, is almost impossible to determine. A player is going to fall on one side or the other of average - for simplicity, a 50/50 chance of having 'good' or 'bad' stats.
Then you have events, such as player signings. To evaluate, people look at the players' stats and see 'good' or 'bad', and draw conclusions.
Then they look at past events - in this case, other player signings. Then they look for examples that fit their narrative - in this example. Brouwer = 'bad' and turned out to be bad.
And they conclude that is evidence of their evaluation of the current event.
The truth, however, is that hockey is a team game, and players play with different players over time, and are deployed differently over time. This is especially true for defensemen.
Look at Barrie's stats in COL then the next year in TOR. Same player, different deployment, VERY different stats. Did Barrie drastically change as a player? Or was his circumstance and usage different?
Hockey stats are no where near evolved enough to be a primary basis to judge a player.
Tanev's declining stats have taken place over a period where his role on the team grew considerably. And also where the team got worse defensively.
Why did his role grow considerably? Because he was declining? Or because he was filling those ever more challenging roles?
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Same as Gio. Heart and knowledge but a rational fear of a career ending contact.
Hamonic was the same after Gundbransson broke his face.
Right now Hanifin is the closest thing to a physical deterrent with Anderson grabbing people after the fact.
Expecting Forbort or equivalent to be signed before the start of camp.
The Dillon contract for 4x 3.9 checked a lot more boxes for the Flames than the Tanev 4 x 4.5 deal.
Did he check the "right side" defenseman box? Or the "top 4 defenseman" box?
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Really haven’t watched Tanev a whole bunch, but after reading through lots of posts here and looking at stats, I am hopeful that this contract works out here.
I do think the player will work out, but we might not be really happy about the contract in 3 years.
With that said, I do think that Tanev will be an impactful player on this team in a year or two, more so than Hamonic would have been.
I would have liked to sign Brodie instead, but it wasn’t in the cards.
I prefer Tanev over Hamonic. Of course, the asterisk would be that I don’t know what Hamonics contract would look like.
Think of the extra $600k as the price we pay for not including draft picks to acquire a flawed, but functional defenseman that fills a much needed role on the team.
Every other D on the team is a good possession player, and every other D has all his teeth.
You can’t have a defence corps that has all its teeth.
And yet, metaphorically, Tanev is the one who gets his face smashed. "Tanev replaces Hamonic, not Brodie" is a condemnation. There is no requirement to have a guy who is useless outside of his own end. Better to have punchers than punchees.
As for the debate about who Tanev replaces, it as simple as 'Brodie' or 'Hamonic'. The Flames' D core is going to evolve substantially over the next couple years, due to all the young guys with growing roles.
I think that, for this year, Tanev's role will be mostly with Gio as a top pairing guy, facing the toughest competition - so more of a replacement of Brodie than Hamonic. Meanwhile, Hanifin - Andersson will continue to get more and more responsibility over the course of the season, and Valimaki - Kylington/whoever will get sheltered minutes.
However, Hanifin, Andersson, Valimaki, Kylington and Mackey will all get the opportunity to grow, and at least some of them will. That will mean that Tanev's role will start to be reduced. I would suspect that by next year, he is a 2nd pairing guy with mostly defensive responsibilities (i.e. replacing last year Hamonic), and by years 3 and 4, he is a 3rd pairing guy (i.e. replacing recent Hamonic).
I don't look at this deal as 'Tanev is going to be a 1st pairing guy for 4 years - we're screwed. I look at it as Tanev being a 2/3 guy this year, a 3/4 next year, a 4/5 in year 3, and a 5/6 in year 4.
I see it as a guy who will help the young guys and take some responsibility off their shoulders for a while, while they learn and grow. Then those guys will pass him and push him down the lineup.
Considering that, I am not concerned about 4 years (though obviously, less would have been better). And I am certainly not concerned about $4.5M, which is 2nd-pairing-guy money.
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And yet, metaphorically, Tanev is the one who gets his face smashed. "Tanev replaces Hamonic, not Brodie" is a condemnation. There is no requirement to have a guy who is useless outside of his own end. Better to have punchers than punchees.
Tanev replaces Hamonic because they play a similar game, for a similar amount of money.
Gio, Andersson, Hanifin, Kylington and Valimaki are all a certain type of player.
Tanev is a different type. You need both.
Tampa Bay just won a cup with Bogosian and Coburn playing 15 minutes a night; you need racehorses and you need Clydesdales.
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This is a very iffy signing. Tanev is not particularly good at anything and that's a bunch of $$ and term for a d-man that isn't really good at anything. He also got beat up in terms of possession which is mitigated slightly by the fact that he got hard deployments.
If I had to wager this contract becomes Treliving's latest Brouwer/Neal level UFA signing.
We could trade Bennett and Mangiapane for McDavid and people would be losing their #### calling for Trelivings head on CP. You gotta learn what posters to ignore
I would go back and read some of your very own posts in the Troy Brouwer signing thread before I dialed up the smugness too high if I were you.
I was hoping that they would replace Brodie with someone with more offence — with Barrie or even bringing Gus back. A power-play specialist that you could shelter/manage situationally between second and third pair minutes. With Andersson trending towards a top pair guy you have that luxury.
But what would be even better would be making space for Vallimaki to get opportunities. I'm not saying slot him in as the power-play quarterback, but I like the prospect of him being an every night player on the third pair with opportunities to move up and get more situational time as available.
I think that having Tanev as opposed to Barrie gives you more options for both Hanifin and Vallimaki, and I like that.
I'm a fan of what Tanev brings defensively, but I understand the concerns about his durability, and I hope that some of those downward trending advanced metrics are a product of where the Canucks were at the last few years.
Over all I think we've signed a good defensive #4 option here that will enable Andersson, Hanifin and Vallimaki to all develop without blocking any of them on the depth chart, and I think that's really important.
I think they still can. In fact, I would rather the PP specialist be a 3rd pairing guy, than a guy like Barrie who gets top pairing money but is one-dimensional.
Now that the top 4 is solidified, they can look at options for the #6 spot. They can sign a cheap, Gustafsson type, or they can give the role to Kylington and see how he runs with it.
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Tanev replaces Hamonic because they play a similar game, for a similar amount of money.
Gio, Andersson, Hanifin, Kylington and Valimaki are all a certain type of player.
Tanev is a different type. You need both.
Tampa Bay just won a cup with Bogosian and Coburn playing 15 minutes a night; you need racehorses and you need Clydesdales.
Perfectly put, the Flames needed a solid stay at home guy and Tanev is that guy for us now; not the most exciting signing but he does carry the benefit of playing years with our newest goalie and can really help expedite the familiarity with Markstrom and the D core I think.
Pretty sure Brodie was set to sign the same contract as Tanev but was insisting on a NMC that they couldn't give him because they have Giordano, Hamonic and Andersson to protect.
Tanev signed the deal and can be exposed.
That's my guess.
If BT refused to sign Brodie to this deal because he didn't want to protect him instead of Giordano, he should be fired immediately.
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I like that Calgary took the hard nosed playoff warrior shut down type in Tanev over the softer offensive defensemen Barrie. Hopefully Juuso Välimäki will remain injury free to capitalize on this opportunity.
Agreed with the above point on Markstrom & Tanev, they've played together for 7+ years. Should make for a smooth transition on the ice.
Last edited by David Struch; 10-10-2020 at 12:12 PM.
If BT refused to sign Brodie to this deal because he didn't want to protect him instead of Giordano, he should be fired immediately.
One of the reasons why the Flames are able to land free agents like Markstrom and Tanev is because word travels among the player fraternity about how the organization treats its players.
Exposing Gio, after everything he has done for this team and more importantly, the community would be a huge slap in the face.
This organization has always shown class to its players, during and even after they leave and this has built up a lot of goodwill amongst players.
I don't think the difference between Brodie and Tanev is anything to warrant destroying all the goodwill the organization has built up over the years.
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