I think it's crazy to want to swap any lines while we are still winning. The zone start data alone is enough to understand why we see the top line playing in our own end more than we are used to. To me, this is definitely a "aint broke dont fix it" situation. No one should be crying over lack of production from certain players while we're still winning games- that's oilers speak and it forgets that this is a team game.
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Am I crazy in wanting a swap between Lindholm and Mangipane? Maybe a shakeup motivates 13 & 23 a bit, and I think Chucky/Backs/Lindholm could be a hell of a line, the new defacto #1 (well #2, as the Lucic line is pretty clearly numero uno right now).
Or does that just lead to the Monahan line getting trapped in their zone even more than they are now?
I'd simply switch Johhny & Thachuk at even strength. Both need a jump start offensively 5 on 5.
The top line has really struggled to create any offense or zone time due to Johhny's inability to retrieve pucks or put pressure on the opposition defense on dump ins. Tkachuk can fill that hole much better than he can, whereas I believe the puck retrieval and transition abilities of Backlund and Mangiapane would allow Johhny more time to create offensively not only off the rush, but with having more established o-zone time.
So interesting ... why would Ward move away from sheltering the top line in the playoffs?
Monahan has had 4 of 5 games under 40% (the other just over 40) compared to the regular season at close to 60%.
I noticed this too. Doesn't make much sense to me. They will need those guys clicking offensively, generating o zone time to go anywhere this playoffs. I don't think they got one offensive zone draw in the last 30 minutes of the game.
To me it seems Ward has convinced the top line to look after their own end first and I see no reason to change tactics now. It's cliché, but they always say defense wins championships.
If they prioritize defense, the offense will come I have no doubt. If they continue to play like this, look out western conference.
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So interesting ... why would Ward move away from sheltering the top line in the playoffs?
Monahan has had 4 of 5 games under 40% (the other just over 40) compared to the regular season at close to 60%.
IMO this is by design.
In the Jets series the Flames had their top line head to head against the Jets top line at times, and mostly against the top 6. It actually worked as the Flames top line didn't generate offense, but also shut down the Jets top line playing really low event hockey.
I think the goal for the top line this year is to just be very responsible defensively at 5v5, and then make teams pay on the PP.
Compare the Flames top line after 5 playoff games this year vs. last year.
This Year:
GF: 1
GA: 0
CF/60: 40.7
CA/60: 58.3
Total Corsi/60: 99.0
HDCF/60: 0
HDCA/60: 6.6
xGF: 0.78
xGA: 1.15
Off. Zone Start: 39.2%
Last Year:
GF:0
GA:1
CF/60: 64.5
CA/60: 69.4
Total Corsi/60: 133.9
HDCF/60: 6.6
HDCA/60: 21.5
xGF: 1.38
xGA: 2.31
Off. Zone Start: 50.0%
Last year they gave up 21.5 high danger chances per 60 minutes when on the ice, this year it's 6.6. And they are starting in the defensive zone more. Plus way fewer overall shot attempts at 5v5 (133 per 60 last year, vs 99 this year)
So think the goal is to have the top line do a bit more of the heavy lifting (Starting in defensive zone more) but to just eliminate all high danger chances and to not play the risky high event game they've played in the past. Means we probably see them not generate much at 5v5, but also hopefully means the team overall is more responsible defensively.
Personally I think they do need to at least generate a bit more offense but I'd rather they not trade off the sound defensive play to do so. I think Monahan has been the best of the bunch at 5v5, and has been doing a lot of little things to help the team. Lindholm has been okay but IMO hasn't quite looked right to me since Game 2 or 3 against the Jets. Gaudreau hasn't looked explosive on his feet all year, and IMO he's the biggest concern on that first line right now.
Last edited by SuperMatt18; 08-12-2020 at 11:20 AM.
So interesting ... why would Ward move away from sheltering the top line in the playoffs?
Monahan has had 4 of 5 games under 40% (the other just over 40) compared to the regular season at close to 60%.
They have a high number of dzone faceoff's because they are getting consistently outplayed and getting stuck in the defensive zone.
After a whistle the line has had 17 offensive zone starts, 18 defensive zone starts, and 6 neutral zone starts.
As Kent mentioned Lindholm and Gaudreau haven't even been on the ice for a high danger shot attempt for.. in 5 games. Gaudreau is 0-8, and Lindholm is 0-6 in that regard. They haven't been giving up much, but they have created aboslutely NOTHING. It's not a recipe for success.
They won't be rocking a 100% OISV% for much longer...
Last edited by HighLifeMan; 08-12-2020 at 11:03 AM.
Speaking of Rasmus, does anyone have a gif of him dropping Benn at the blueline? I think Cuthbert said Benn gave him a "playful" cross-check afterwards -- he probably wasn't expecting to get dumped on his backside like that.
Fun fact, Andersson wasn't given credit for a hit on the play...?
I've found the hit and block tracking has been pretty wonky in the bubble. Tkachuk had that sequence against Winnipeg in Game 4 where he crushed Ehlers behind the net and then blocked the shot (giving him the bloody lip), before safely clearing the puck. He wasn't credited with the hit or block on the play.
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I'm sure the teams that have lost or are out would take wins without their top line dazzling over losing.
Have a little gratitude rather than critiquing the painting. See it as a good learning and development experience for the top trio that will make them better players because of this challenge that is being thrown at them.
Fun fact, Andersson wasn't given credit for a hit on the play...?
I've found the hit and block tracking has been pretty wonky in the bubble. Tkachuk had that sequence against Winnipeg in Game 4 where he crushed Ehlers behind the net and then blocked the shot (giving him the bloody lip), before safely clearing the puck. He wasn't credited with the hit or block on the play.
Jamie Benn is really lucky the league has eliminated old school predatory hitting. Because the dude would have been gone from the series if it was in 06 and Phaneuf was on the blueline.
I do appreciate the increased player safety, but wow do a lot of players play dangerously and will their heads down in the neutral zone now.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poe969
It's the Law of E=NG. If there was an Edmonton on Mars, it would stink like Uranus.
Something that surprises me about the top line deployment is I almost always see them on the ice with the bottom D pairing, which, when you have the top 2 pairs that we have, would probably irk me if I was one of those players. Not that the bottom pairing is bad, but there’s no question that there are superior offensive threats on the top two pairs and I think having them matched with one of those groups more would do well to increase their OZone time and opportunities.
if it's a case of Gaudreau and Monahan learning defense, and then with that having the offence come and become a better overall line I'm all for it.
But odd time of year to experiment.
Out of 400 forwards with 25 or more minutes Lindholm is ranked 25th for fewest xGA/60, Monahan is 43rd and Gaudreau is 52nd.
They're not giving up much.
Monahan has been especially noticeable in the D zone, some big hits and some very strong board work.
And Gaudreau to my eye has had some fantastic back checking/stick checking in the D zone.
When you aren't cheating for offence, the offence can be tough to get.
IF you want some of the other teams playing right now, you will often see one or two of the top line players flying the zone early. That or not taking much if any faceoffs in their own zone.
Maybe Ward is riding the hot hands, and once the top line starts getting lucky or the middle two start to struggle, the zone starts will start to shift.
Thats a level of coaching we haven't seen much of in the past, but maybe hes adapting better with more confidence and buy in.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poe969
It's the Law of E=NG. If there was an Edmonton on Mars, it would stink like Uranus.
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Yeah, I think Kent accidentally included icings for in those numbers - obviously the coach has no choice on deployment tactics in those circumstances.
Not as lopsided once those are accounted for, but the point remains: the top line isn't being deployed nearly as offensively as previously and in fact leads the team in defensive starts (that the coach has control over).
Icings by line and revised %:
Monahan 8 (39% -> 47%)
Backlund 8 (42% -> 49%)
Bennett 4 (63% -> 71%)
Ryan 5 (41% -> 53%)
You account for those percents relative to the team, of course.
__________________ "I think the eye test is still good, but analytics can sure give you confirmation: what you see...is that what you really believe?" Scotty Bowman, 0 NHL games played
Last edited by united; 08-12-2020 at 11:36 AM.
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As long as the Flames are playing well as a team, being entertaining and winning games, I'm okay with Ward coaching however he pleases. Even two of these three are enough to keep me from complaining, but with all three coming along right now I'm happy to trust him and see how it plays out.
It feels as though he's got the team in a good place both tactically and emotionally, and if that's the case we will actually get to see what they're made of. Hopefully they have what it takes to hang together as the battle goes on.
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"If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can't it get us out?"
It seems to me that the strategy is to let the top lines break even and win through superior depth + specialty teams.
If that's the case, having the #1 line take on many of the tough minutes seems to make sense (though it still seems odd to me). I also expect deployments might be a little different if we were chasing the lead.
if it's a case of Gaudreau and Monahan learning defense, and then with that having the offence come and become a better overall line I'm all for it.
But odd time of year to experiment.
Out of 400 forwards with 25 or more minutes Lindholm is ranked 25th for fewest xGA/60, Monahan is 43rd and Gaudreau is 52nd.
They're not giving up much.
I like it. Takes the pressure off the top line to score and creates better opportunities / matchups for the second and third lines.
It used to be the Backlund line getting buried with d-zone starts. By putting the Monahan line in those situations, you likely don't lose much defensively (as all three are defensively capable, especially Lindholm) but you maximize the effectiveness of the Backlund line and Bennett line to cycle down low, get in on the forecheck, and lay the body. Which is the style of play they're leaning on to generate momentum.
The top line will still get their looks on the powerplay -- you just didn't see it in game 1 because we only had one PP.
The Flames are trying to win by attrition. Which is why they started their third line first shift of the game. Sure Dallas got a couple of shots, but Lucic and Bennett both laid some huge hits setting the tone for the series. They are trying to wear teams down and beat them with depth and defense.
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if it's a case of Gaudreau and Monahan learning defense, and then with that having the offence come and become a better overall line I'm all for it.
But odd time of year to experiment.
Out of 400 forwards with 25 or more minutes Lindholm is ranked 25th for fewest xGA/60, Monahan is 43rd and Gaudreau is 52nd.
They're not giving up much.
That may be true but Lindholm and Gaudreau are also both bottom five among forwards IN THE LEAGUE in terms of xGF%, and that's with significantly more ice time than those around them.
The top line is clearly competing extremely hard... It doesn't change the fact that they are still getting heavily outplayed, and have been extremely fortunate not to have hurt the team to this point.
