And here’s a potential reason why. If he can drum up an emergency about alleged foreign interference in the election and with the help of a governors prevent some swing states from casting electoral college ballots, then the election goes to one state one vote. The Republicans control more states so he gets voted in no matter what the popular vote or EC count is. It’s laid out in this article, and Trump’s comments and actions could be setting the ground for this.
I’m curious what people who are much better informed about the US election process than me think about this.
I think this scenario is plausible but unlikely. Getting buy-in from state legislatures on refusing to certify election results is the first big roadblock to this plan. These legislatures are made up of career politicians, who care most about keeping their jobs, and beyond that, care about state-level politics. With the demographics of the country already shifting against them, going against the will of the people in purple states might be political suicide for Republicans in those states.
There are a few swing states where it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Republican legislature to do whatever Trump wants. Wisconsin comes to mind.
I definitely don't know how it would fare in the supreme court, but certainly another Trump appointment before the end of the term would help immensely, and outgoing Republican senators (like, potentially, Collins) would have no reason to block an ideologue appointee.
It wouldn't surprise me if Barr is plotting out this and other possible scenarios. But it requires a lot of buy-in from people not in his or Trump's direct chain of command, who haven't always been willing to go with Trump in the past.
The threat of all of this, though, should be used as motivation for Democrats to vote. The more states that vote against Trump, and the wider the margin by which he loses in these states, the more it prevents the above sort of scenario.
I don't even understand how that would work. Once the inauguration happens, he's no longer president, him refusing to leave the office doesn't change that. He'll be removed, likely by the secret service.
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I don't even understand how that would work. Once the inauguration happens, he's no longer president, him refusing to leave the office doesn't change that. He'll be removed, likely by the secret service.
If not them, angry mobs with pitchforks.
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Yeah, there are a lot of uncertainties about how it plays out if he refuses to leave. He'd be counting on the loyalty of a lot of people. His appointees might remain loyal to him, but is that true of the rank-and-file of departments and agencies? The Joint Chiefs of Staff? The Unified Command of the military? I tend to think that the military leadership (below the DoD but at the top of the uniformed military) would respect the result of a clear election. And if the military signalled their support, than most agencies would likely follow suit. (If the military leadership was divided or supported Trump, or asked the supreme court for guidance, then all bets are off).
Of any department, it seems most likely that he's able to keep the DHS loyal to him, and that might create the spectacle of unidentified DHS troops like those we're seeing in Portland standing guard outside the White House. Military storming the White House in that setting might be the start of actual civil war, and would likely be a last resort. A Biden government that had buy-in from the military and most other agencies (plus congress) could likely start governing even without physically occupying the White House. In the meantime, maybe they try to simply shut down the White House: blockade it, stop any deliveries to it, cut off power, etc. Trump would have a pretty limited tolerance for discomfort.
Yeah, there are a lot of uncertainties about how it plays out if he refuses to leave. He'd be counting on the loyalty of a lot of people. His appointees might remain loyal to him, but is that true of the rank-and-file of departments and agencies? The Joint Chiefs of Staff? The Unified Command of the military? I tend to think that the military leadership (below the DoD but at the top of the uniformed military) would respect the result of a clear election. And if the military signalled their support, than most agencies would likely follow suit. (If the military leadership was divided or supported Trump, or asked the supreme court for guidance, then all bets are off).
Of any department, it seems most likely that he's able to keep the DHS loyal to him, and that might create the spectacle of unidentified DHS troops like those we're seeing in Portland standing guard outside the White House. Military storming the White House in that setting might be the start of actual civil war, and would likely be a last resort. A Biden government that had buy-in from the military and most other agencies (plus congress) could likely start governing even without physically occupying the White House. In the meantime, maybe they try to simply shut down the White House: blockade it, stop any deliveries to it, cut off power, etc. Trump would have a pretty limited tolerance for discomfort.
I would imagine the White House is capable of withstanding a blockade. Likely several power sources, supplies, etc. I wouldn't think it would be like a standard house/office building for that sort of thing.
However, the lack of McDonald's and media attention would likely do it.
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If the election is close enough in some states and Trump can cause doubt, the results can be dragged through courts.
The Bush/Gore election was essentially decided by a state court refusing to force a recount. Would Biden have the resolve to fight it out if it drags on, or would the Democrats cave like they did before?
The key is to make the election such a blowout that it can't be disputed. Of course, if it is a blowout of monumental proportions, conspiracy theories will persist.
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How is the "one state, one vote" calculated? Is it based on what the states would have each voted in the electoral college? If so, the last time someone won the presidency without carrying a majority of the states was Jimmy Carter (23 to 27 for Ford).
It's getting to the point we just need the fat #### to drop dead already. That would make things easiest.
With all the people dying due to COVID mismanagement and the likelihood it will get worse when schools re-open, I am surprised that someone on the inside hasn't taken him out at this point.
Having someone like Pence in the wings is probably saving his life at this point as the alternative is just as bad. Are Trump and Pence being kept completely separate at this point?
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I don't even understand how that would work. Once the inauguration happens, he's no longer president, him refusing to leave the office doesn't change that. He'll be removed, likely by the secret service.
I like to visualize it like this:
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It would be the current one. Newly voted in members do not get sworn in until January, which is past the date by which Trump could use the mechanism suggested.
According to 270toWin its the new congress.
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The Congress meets in joint session on January 6, 2021^ to count the electoral votes (this count happens whether the election is close or not). If no candidate has reached 270 Electoral Votes, then the House and Senate take over and elect the President and Vice-President, respectively. Note that the newly elected 117th Congress will be sworn in on January 3rd, 2021. It is that new Congress that would take on this responsibility.
But I don't think it would be that straight forward.
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How is the "one state, one vote" calculated? Is it based on what the states would have each voted in the electoral college? If so, the last time someone won the presidency without carrying a majority of the states was Jimmy Carter (23 to 27 for Ford).
Its the House of Representatives that elects the President in the case of a contingent election (ie: No candidate gets 270 electoral votes).
One state, one vote. Meaning the one congressman from Montana gets one vote, and that's the vote for Montana. The 53 from California all vote and whoever wins the majority of those congressmen gets California's vote.
I believe a tie is a spoiled ballot.
Its also the top 3 vote getters. I believe its top 3 electoral college vote getters. Which means its possible that a faithless elector would vote for say, Bernie Sanders, and then congress elect Bernie. Although in reality it wouldn't happen. (Not on the Democrat side, would be an interesting maneuver on the Republican side though, win the election and not have Trump). Regardless, I'm rambling.
The Senate elects the Vice President of the top 2 contenders. Its a straight majority vote there.
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The reasons for the majority of what Trump does is to either stroke his ego or fill his wallet. I don't think even Trump himself believes that he'll get his way if he loses the election and doesn't accept the results. He'll rally his supporters through Twitter with more "us vs them" tweets and suggestions of uprisings against the establishment knowing full well that any uprising, organized or not, would get crushed by the military quickly. But as with other things, Trump doesn't care about what happens to his supporters who rise up violently and end up in prison. He'll revel in the cult-like support for one last moment and be gone.
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Read the article that lays out the road map for Trump to maintain power after losing the election. All of those machinations take place before the new congress is sworn in, hence the current congress casting the supporting vote.
The reasons for the majority of what Trump does is to either stroke his ego or fill his wallet. I don't think even Trump himself believes that he'll get his way if he loses the election and doesn't accept the results. He'll rally his supporters through Twitter with more "us vs them" tweets and suggestions of uprisings against the establishment knowing full well that any uprising, organized or not, would get crushed by the military quickly. But as with other things, Trump doesn't care about what happens to his supporters who rise up violently and end up in prison. He'll revel in the cult-like support for one last moment and be gone.
Hypothetical, even Trump isn’t this crazy (?), but if he loses could he go all scorched earth/salting fields on Biden and start a war or something prior to Jan 20? Are there any limits on an outgoing president’s power? Would people obey in any case?
