Ongoing - Elliott Friedman's 30 Thoughts (Wednesdays)

[FanIn80]

Re: McDavid re-signing... I can't remember what Crosby got on his first deal out of entry. Did he get max $ x term?

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Re: McDavid re-signing... I can't remember what Crosby got on his first deal out of entry. Did he get max $ x term?

Crosby's caphit for his 2nd contract was 8.7 starting in 2008-2009, the max salary at the time was $11.34m.

NHL max salary this season is $14.6m. McDavid gonna get paid.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Re: McDavid re-signing... I can't remember what Crosby got on his first deal out of entry. Did he get max $ x term?

9 million a year for 5 years, and the NHL salary cap in 2008-2009 was 56 million. so 16% of the cap.

so even going by that if the cap stays at 73 million it would be 11.7 million dollars per year.

The average salary of 8.7 came about because the last year of the contract was about 4.5 million, that's not allowed anymore.

[Badgers Nose]

so basically what you guys are saying is:

EDM has the best player for the next 10 years but will likely be crippled by the salary he will command (due to the high probability of max contract offers from other teams like LV). As Flames fans we will get to see him often, on a unbalanced EDM or Vegas team that will pose no real threat once the post season arrives each year because of how easily teams will be able to shut his one dangerous line down.

Is that about right? I can live with that.

[Ruttiger]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

so basically what you guys are saying is:

EDM has the best player for the next 10 years but will likely be crippled by the salary he will command (due to the high probability of max contract offers from other teams like LV). As Flames fans we will get to see him often, on a unbalanced EDM or Vegas team that will pose no real threat once the post season arrives each year because of how easily teams will be able to shut his one dangerous line down.

Is that about right? I can live with that.

And thus I assume everyone in Calgary is glad they didn't get saddled with McDavid?

[CaptainCrunch]

Its going to be hard for the Oilers to balance their team when 25% or more of the cap is taken up by two players.

Its the one thing going forward that teams that grasp a generational player are going to have to decide on. Do they go with an unbalanced team with little depth or find a way to balance it out.

Its easier though if you draft well and have good prospects, but realistically outside of JP, there's not a lot for their Oilers to get all that excited about because they pissed away so many picks with bad picks and bad development.

[Vinny01]

Where the Oil appear to be in a good spot is the blueline (believe it or not) Larson and Klefbom are signed long term under $5M and at worst they are a 2nd pairing. The Sekera contract will hurt them as will Lucic. They need to move out one or both of Nuge and Eberle to afford both Draisaitl and McDavid. I think they could dump Nuge's contract in the summer but Eberle could be tough to move without salary coming back.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Where the Oil appear to be in a good spot is the blueline (believe it or not) Larson and Klefbom are signed long term under $5M and at worst they are a 2nd pairing. The Sekera contract will hurt them as will Lucic. They need to move out one or both of Nuge and Eberle to afford both Draisaitl and McDavid. I think they could dump Nuge's contract in the summer but Eberle could be tough to move without salary coming back.

I doubt anyone is going to take Nuge without sending a contract back, he's just not worth a 6 million dollar a year hit right now.

Larson and Klefbom are both pretty good, however with the Edmonton salary structure the way its going to be they are effectively out of the free agent market, and they don't have the assets to acquire a top pairing defensemen unless Draisaitl is moved out for example.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Its going to be hard for the Oilers to balance their team when 25% or more of the cap is taken up by two players.

Its the one thing going forward that teams that grasp a generational player are going to have to decide on. Do they go with an unbalanced team with little depth or find a way to balance it out.

Its easier though if you draft well and have good prospects, but realistically outside of JP, there's not a lot for their Oilers to get all that excited about because they pissed away so many picks with bad picks and bad development.

Well the argument would be Chicago where 2 players are making $20MM. However, I think your last paragraph is the difference. Chicago and Pittsburgh have been able to find diamonds via draft and signing. Edmonton hasn't shown that yet, and with Lucic they showed they actually overpay for end of prime players.

Chicago has been screwed. Edmonton could do the same. It will take an outstanding GM and lots of luck. Something not seen yet.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Ruttiger

And thus I assume everyone in Calgary is glad they didn't get saddled with McDavid?

I don't think glad is the word.

Of course great players are an opportunity, but they also present challenges. Teams who have a lot of their cap space invested in one or two player rely heavily on prospect development and asset management.

Flames fans are seeing the silver lining that the Oilers have struggled with prospect development and asset management, and therefore have struggled as a team.

In essence this is a recognition that star player do not equal championships, and a reminder that Edmonton is No Good.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Well the argument would be Chicago where 2 players are making $20MM. However, I think your last paragraph is the difference. Chicago and Pittsburgh have been able to find diamonds via draft and signing. Edmonton hasn't shown that yet, and with Lucic they showed they actually overpay for end of prime players.

Chicago has been screwed. Edmonton could do the same. It will take an outstanding GM and lots of luck. Something not seen yet.

The other advantage Chicago has is that Keith and Hossa have contracts that are considered illegal in this new CBA. If Chicago was paying Hossa and Keith 7.5 and 9 mil right now they would be screwed as well.

Pens have Sid on a bogus contract too

Oilers won't have this luxury and have 1 prospect that could make an impact for their team next season. I could see Drasaitl getting 7+ this summer on 7-8 years. Only way I see it less than 7 is if they go the 5-6 year route that the Flames did with their core

Mcdavid should get 10+ and he may get it on a 5 year deal which then puts the timeline to win at 5 years with guys like Eberle and Nuge on bad contracts for half of that

Next year will be a big season for the Oilers tho as Mcdavid's deal does not kick in until after next year. But Dra's starts next season so unless Nuge or Eberle get moved out they will not be able to land a PP dman that I think they need to move up the standings

[Sylvanfan]

Even at 14 per year, a guy like McDavid would still be a bargain.

[GioforPM]

McDavid (and Drasaitl) contracts won't hurt Edmonton. They will get value for those. It's the Lucic contract that's going to sting Edmonton. And Nuge. And Eberle/Pouliot to some extent. Maybe Sekera as time goes on.

That said, Larsson and Talbot have pretty decent contracts.

[EldrickOnIce]

As stated several times in numerous places around here, McDavid and Draisaitl contracts will not hurt the Oilers. They have plenty of those that still might/will though.
There will be no offer sheets. McDavid will be extended as soon as is possible, without any real negotiating. They will hand him the contract to fill in a number. The term will be of greatest interest. Does McDavid give them max term at reduced rate (meaning 10M+), or does he put a time limit to build a winner (at that reduced salary)? Like to the year before his UFA eligibility.

[Jay Random]

Why would McDavid ask for anything but the largest salary for the longest term?

‘Oh, you're letting me write my own ticket, but I won't be greedy because I'm just that gosh-darned nice. I mean, I could suffer a career-ending injury tomorrow, and if I sign at $10m for 4 years instead of $13m for 8, I'll lose out on 64 million smackers. But hey, that's how it goes, sometimes ya gotta take one for the team.’

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Why would McDavid ask for anything but the largest salary for the longest term?

‘Oh, you're letting me write my own ticket, but I won't be greedy because I'm just that gosh-darned nice. I mean, I could suffer a career-ending injury tomorrow, and if I sign at $10m for 4 years instead of $13m for 8, I'll lose out on 64 million smackers. But hey, that's how it goes, sometimes ya gotta take one for the team.’

Well, the only reason I can imagine is that, inconceivably, the Oilers might actually make the playoffs and whats more, not suck entirely.

Granted, this is about 90% due to McDavid himself, so yeah, if it were me I'd want to get paid.

Remove McDavid from the Oilers and they're just as terrible as ever.

[Jay Random]

That's the thing, Locke. McDavid could go to any team in the league and make the playoffs. Why play in Edmonton for less money?

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Why would McDavid ask for anything but the largest salary for the longest term?

‘Oh, you're letting me write my own ticket, but I won't be greedy because I'm just that gosh-darned nice. I mean, I could suffer a career-ending injury tomorrow, and if I sign at $10m for 4 years instead of $13m for 8, I'll lose out on 64 million smackers. But hey, that's how it goes, sometimes ya gotta take one for the team.’

It's pretty rare for top NHL players to ask for the largest salary they can get.

If it were common there'd be a bunch of guys at the max and way less Troy Brouwers making $4+.

In general real difference makers in the NHL are pretty underpaid relative to their contributions.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Yeah, sure, but this is Connor McDavid, not just "top NHL players". There's no one else like this.

I mean, he is a RFA, but given that there will probably be at least a dozen teams willing to give him Max x Max in an offer sheet, I guess it's hard to see this playing out any other way. Granted, the Oilers can give him eight years where any other team can only give him seven, but I don't know how much that's really worth.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

That's the thing, Locke. McDavid could go to any team in the league and make the playoffs. Why play in Edmonton for less money?

I get it. The only reason the Oilers are even getting a sniff of success is because of him.

From an asset valuation standpoint that makes him king. He could tell them that he wants League max and a crown made out of sweatpants and rubies and they'd have to do it.