The US Election Polling / Data Thread

[octothorp]

Looks like a plot to join the democratic republic of the Congo.

[Acey]

TX, GA, ID, and SC blue? It might as well be.

[photon]

Florida poll that polls both early voters people that haven't voted yet. Among early voters Clinton leads 55-38%. Among those who haven't voted yet Trump leads 43-42%. Combined that's 48-40% for Clinton.

It's a different kind of poll for sure, not sure what to make of it. Indication that Clinton is winning the ground game?

https://www.scribd.com/document/3296...-Likely-Voters

[Drak]

Maybe Hillary already has Florida...

[Drak]

This is from Daily KOS, so keep that in mind. But here's an interesting analysis on polling from a source in Florida

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016...mment_64143705

[direwolf]

Good and bad news for Clinton today. Latest polls from CNN/Opinion Research show she's up in Florida (+2) and Pennsylvania (+4), but down in Nevada (-6) and Arizona (-5).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/.../updates/#plus

Also it looks like Trump's rise in the polls has finally slowed down a bit. His percentage hasn't really moved since yesterday afternoon and he's still hovering around 30%

[troutman]

As long as there is good and bad news for Clinton she should be fine, because Trump pretty much has to sweep the battleground states.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Nevada poll appears to be dubious

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports
In CNN poll, Trump leads Clinton in Clark County by 1: 46-45. There's more chance that Sheldon Adelson gives $500 million to Priorities USA.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/s...52432216449024

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 39m39 minutes ago
I'm also puzzled -- and this happened before -- why CNN doesn't have big enough sample of Latinos to break them out in crosstabs. Red flag.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/s...57277212123136

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Just wait until the Wisconsin poll comes out tomorrow. Trump was trending ahead there last time until the tape came out. I expect it'll be very close.

I expect to be wrong a lot too. This is a solid poll for Hillary.

MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll 20m20 minutes ago
New Marquette Law School Poll finds Clinton leading Trump among likely voters in WI 46% to 40%

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/793866080833921024

[GirlySports]

538 podcast was saying that even though Hillary leads by 5% nationally too many of those votes might be in California where it doesn't matter or in Texas where it may matter (if she wins Texas it's over) but it may not. Gaining a few more million votes in Texas but still losing it means nothing.

[Senator Clay Davis]

So this has been a heavy polling day so here it is. Mostly a good day for Trump though, those PA and VA polls have to be a little concerning for the Hillary campaign.

AZ: Trump 49, Clinton 44, Johnson 5, Stein 1 (CNN/ORC); Trump 47, Clinton 43, Johnson 2, Stein 2 (Emerson)

CO: Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 8, Stein 4 (Emerson)

FL: Clinton 49, Trump 47, Johnson 3, Stein 1 (CNN/ORC)

GA: Trump 51, Clinton 42, Johnson 2 (Emerson)

MO: Trump 52, Clinton 37, Johnson 5, Stein 2 (Emerson)

OR: Clinton 41, Trump 34, Johnson 4, Stein 2 (FOX 12/DHM Research)

PA: Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 2 (CNN/ORC); Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 2, Stein 2 (Susquehanna); Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 3, Stein 1 (Monmouth)

VA: Clinton 44, Trump 39, Johnson 5, Stein 2 (Winthrop); Trump 44, Clinton 41 (Hampton/CPP)

WI: Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 4, Stein 3 (Marquette)

[GGG]

The now cast for 538 is starting to get scary. Trump is up to getting 45% of the popular vote. I still don't think this latest FBI scandal is what is driving this change as Clintons popular vote % is only down .6 of a point. The main driver of the close in gap has been trump increasing from 42% at his low point up to 45%.

[PsYcNeT]

New Quinnipiac poll is showing pretty decent.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Q polls are not bad, but she did lose ground in all of them relative to the last round of Q polls. More than likely that's Republicans who held out supporting Trump returning to the fold.

[Drak]

Any thoughts on the Florida TargetSmart poll?

A TargetSmart and William & Mary poll of early and likely voters released this morning shows some 28 percent of Florida Republicans who have already voted flipped to cast their ballots for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/sto...illary-clinton

[Senator Clay Davis]

If that number is true it suggests Florida is a problem for Trump. But I find it pretty hard to believe that many Republicans are voting Hillary. 18% is a more reasonable number.

[united]

Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Each candidate won Florida exactly 5,000 times in our 10,000 simulations just now. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

[burn_this_city]

Just rhetoric.

[direwolf]

And here I thought Trump had possibly topped out at 30%. Turns out that was just wishful thinking. He's now jumped up to 31.9%. If this trend keeps up, I could see him getting close to 40 by Saturday. This is getting scary.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...forecast/#plus

[Drak]

Originally Posted by direwolf

And here I thought Trump had possibly topped out at 30%. Turns out that was just wishful thinking. He's now jumped up to 31.9%. If this trend keeps up, I could see him getting close to 40 by Saturday. This is getting scary.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...forecast/#plus

Several weeks back he was at 38 percent or something I believe. Or close to 40.