10-08-2016, 10:50 AM
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#141
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Fort McMurray, AB
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I like Russell more than most here it seems. Very serviceable defenceman if slotted in where he belongs: probably 3rd pairing D who can elevate his game for short periods when required. He did it for us and I really don't get the target painted on him.
Having said all that though, at 3.1M, no thank-you.
It's an overpayment but the Oilers had to do it. What were their options? And, it's only for a year. He is going to be asked to carry a heavier load than he is capable of in Edmonton though and will become a target there as well. Poor guy. I like him and I can already see him being set up to fail.
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10-08-2016, 11:03 AM
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#142
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by schteve_d
I like Russell more than most here it seems. Very serviceable defenceman if slotted in where he belongs: probably 3rd pairing D who can elevate his game for short periods when required. He did it for us and I really don't get the target painted on him.
Having said all that though, at 3.1M, no thank-you.
It's an overpayment but the Oilers had to do it. What were their options? And, it's only for a year. He is going to be asked to carry a heavier load than he is capable of in Edmonton though and will become a target there as well. Poor guy. I like him and I can already see him being set up to fail.
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If you don't think he's worth $3.1m, I am having a hard time reconciling the rest of your post with that fact. If Russell is 'average', $3.1m is a slight underpayment given that an average salary in a $74m cap is $3.2m or so. Seems to me that level of compensation is perfectly in line with his abilities if he is 'serviceable'. Probably one of the best UFA contracts signed recently actually. No term, and at an average salary for an average UFA is tremendous.
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10-08-2016, 11:07 AM
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#143
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Fort McMurray, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheoFleury
If you don't think he's worth $3.1m, I am having a hard time reconciling the rest of your post with that fact. If Russell is 'average', $3.1m is a slight underpayment given that an average salary in a $74m cap is $3.2m or so. Seems to me that level of compensation is perfectly in line with his abilities if he is 'serviceable'. Probably one of the best UFA contracts signed recently actually. No term, and at an average salary for an average UFA is tremendous.
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His abilities are probably below average insofar as NHL defenceman are concerned, which is why he should settle on a third pairing wherever he goes.
I suppose to some teams that price is entirely reasonable but for our situation I think it would be an overpayment.
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10-08-2016, 11:19 AM
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#144
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by schteve_d
His abilities are probably below average insofar as NHL defenceman are concerned, which is why he should settle on a third pairing wherever he goes.
I suppose to some teams that price is entirely reasonable but for our situation I think it would be an overpayment.
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That makes sense, good point. I didn't want him here because I think we need to get away from that style of defense but I get where you're coming from. Makes me think that the Oilers should've paid him $5m+ given the sorry state of their backend.
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10-08-2016, 11:59 AM
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#145
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw
the +/- is the only accurate advanced stat there is . It takes in account actual events... goals, all other advanced stats takes into account judges events, shots on goal, block shots, shots directed to goal..... all that are open to interpretation.
The whole concept behind advanced stats (Corsi etc) to to generate enough events to make it statistically relevant... however weak base input data is.
this is sort of like using robocalls for surveys (less accurate results gotten fast and cheap) rather than in person interviews.
I have never seen a coach or player argue about the accuracy of calling a dump in a missed shot.
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I hate to wade in, but even this part is incorrect. I have a lot of studies that show automated surveys are more accurate than live calls in many types of situations. My point is you are making a lot of assumptions, that at times are contrary to conventional thinking, without providing evidence. Both in the hockey and non-hockey related points.
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10-08-2016, 12:12 PM
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#146
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Franchise Player
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NVM - Yakupov got traded to St. Lu
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10-08-2016, 12:20 PM
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#147
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heep223
So how do you reconcile this to the fact that some of the best players in the league are minus players?
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I'll take 50 +/- leaders in 2015-16
you take the bottom 50 +/-
and my team will beat your team 8 out 10 games by 2+ goals
all of the good players in the bottom 50 had bad years and and are hoping to have much better years. There may be a few guys in my list that are not core players on their team.
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10-08-2016, 12:31 PM
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#148
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Could Care Less
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw
I'll take 50 +/- leaders in 2015-16
you take the bottom 50 +/-
and my team will beat your team 8 out 10 games by 2+ goals
all of the good players in the bottom 50 had bad years and and are hoping to have much better years. There may be a few guys in my list that are not core players on their team. |
I don't think you realize how much you cherry pick data. Great players can have great +\- but great players can also be minus players.
The issue is that you use +\- as the sole determinant in these elaborate arguments and comparisons, when we know that +\- doesn't determine whether a player is great or not. Partly it's because players are played in different situations. For example Monahan puts up 65 points but is still -5 or whatever, because he's on the PP a lot and also matches up against the top players on the other team 5v5. On the other hand Lance Bouma for example, doesn't play PP so when he's on the ice for a goal it counts as a + every time, and furthermore he doesn't match up against the opposition's best lines 5v5 so has easier competition.
Do you see what I am saying at all? Do you see the flaws in +\-? And that using it as a sole determinant in establishing who is good and who is not is problematic?
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10-08-2016, 12:37 PM
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#149
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw
I'll take 50 +/- leaders in 2015-16
you take the bottom 50 +/-
and my team will beat your team 8 out 10 games by 2+ goals
all of the good players in the bottom 50 had bad years and and are hoping to have much better years. There may be a few guys in my list that are not core players on their team. |
Thank you for substantiating my earlier post.
Generally speaking,
Top minute players on good teams= High plus
Top minute players on bad teams= High minus
Plus minus is a very flawed and distorted stat.
Here comes the cherry picking
Last edited by timbit; 10-08-2016 at 12:40 PM.
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10-08-2016, 12:40 PM
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#150
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Vancouver, BC
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http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/112...-work-out-here
Quote:
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Chiarelli said Russell's "speed and puck retrieval" are two of his strongest assets, and can see the veteran on either side of a defensive pairing.
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Hmm... I thought Russell's strongest asset was the shot-blocking. From what I remember of watching him, it frequently involved a panicked clearing attempt high off the glass.
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10-08-2016, 12:48 PM
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#151
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heep223
I don't think you realize how much you cherry pick data. Great players can have great +\- but great players can also be minus players.
The issue is that you use +\- as the sole determinant in these elaborate arguments and comparisons, when we know that +\- doesn't determine whether a player is great or not. Partly it's because players are played in different situations. For example Monahan puts up 65 points but is still -5 or whatever, because he's on the PP a lot and also matches up against the top players on the other team 5v5. On the other hand Lance Bouma for example, doesn't play PP so when he's on the ice for a goal it counts as a + every time, and furthermore he doesn't match up against the opposition's best lines 5v5 so has easier competition.
Do you see what I am saying at all? Do you see the flaws in +\-? And that using it as a sole determinant in establishing who is good and who is not is problematic?
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it is not a sole determinate... It expands on scoring stats.... Monahan is a top centre on the Flames based on his 65 pts..... he will not be a top centre in the league until he is able to go up against the Toews/Kopitars/Thorntons/Crosby/Carters and outplay them. Right now he goes up against them and they are consistently better. When he comes up with a superior effort against a top centre it is newsworthy.... not expected.
Similarly Scheifele and Barkov are the top centres on their teams and while they are in the Monahan pt scoring range they would be considered by neutral observers to be better players at this point in their careers..... because they play against the same level of opposition as Monahan and win more battles as shown by their +/-.
Bouma is an incredibly bad example..... he was a -6 in 44 games. Reflected perfectly his dissapointing 2015-16 season. He also is someone who the Flames want to put out against the other teams top players and hope that he battles them to a scoreless draw at even strength.
Did Bouma have a great season in 2014-15? Not only his 34 pts show this, his +10 was also an indicator of how good he was. He was an extremely important player for the Flames that year..... they had him play at well below 100% physical readiness against the Ducks in the playoffs as he was a better option to play against the superior skilled Ducks than anyone else in the organization.
Backlund is better than his 21 goals and 47 pts (same as scoring range as Colborne).... Backlund was team best +10.
Last edited by ricardodw; 10-08-2016 at 12:54 PM.
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10-08-2016, 12:50 PM
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#152
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Could Care Less
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw
it is not a sole determinate... It expands on scoring stats.... Monahan is a top centre on the Flames based on his 65 pts..... he will not be a top centre in the league until he is able to go up against the Toews/Kopitars/Thorntons/Crosby/Carters . right now he goes up against them and they are consistently better.
Similarly Scheifele and Barkov are the top centres on their teams and while they are in the Monahan pt scoring range they would be considered by neutral observers to be better players at this point in their careers..... because they play against the same level of opposition as Monahan and win more battles.
Bouma is an incredibly bad example..... he was a -6 in 44 games. Reflected perfectly his dissapointing 2015-16 season. He also is someone who the Flames want to put out against the other teams top players and hope that he battles them to a scoreless draw at even strength.
Did Bouma have a great season in 2014-15? Not only his 34 pts show this, his +10 was also an indicator of how good he was. He was an extremely important player for the Flames that year..... they had him play at well below 100% physical readiness against the Ducks in the playoffs as he was a better option to play against the superior skilled Ducks than anyone else in the organization.
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Wow. I was clearly just using them as theoretical examples of how +\- could be flawed. I should have used made up names.
This is a challenge. Can't say I didn't try I guess.
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10-08-2016, 12:54 PM
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#153
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In the Sin Bin
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Sometimes you just have to wonder if ricardodw watches hockey and scouts players himself
or if his wacky thoughts are merely the result of analyzing +\- and not really watching hockey closely.
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10-08-2016, 12:56 PM
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#154
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by timbit
Thank you for substantiating my earlier post.
Generally speaking,
Top minute players on good teams= High plus
Top minute players on bad teams= High minus
Plus minus is a very flawed and distorted stat.
Here comes the cherry picking
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When the best players on a team have a bad +/- the team does bad.
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10-08-2016, 01:08 PM
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#155
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Calgary
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Even with ignore list I can't get away from the harebrained theories ricardodw comes up with when he gets to rubbing his brain cells together. People, there is no point in arguing, I've seen all of these arguments a million times, he doesn't listen. Go argue with your dog, you'll get just as far and you won't derail threads.
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10-08-2016, 01:47 PM
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#156
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Could Care Less
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theinfinitejar
Even with ignore list I can't get away from the harebrained theories ricardodw comes up with when he gets to rubbing his brain cells together. People, there is no point in arguing, I've seen all of these arguments a million times, he doesn't listen. Go argue with your dog, you'll get just as far and you won't derail threads.
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Apologies. I'd never actually engaged him but now I know.
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10-08-2016, 02:05 PM
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#157
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Could Care Less
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Oilers sign Kris Russell (1 yr, ~$3.1 mil)
Wtf tapatalk!
Last edited by heep223; 10-08-2016 at 02:30 PM.
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10-08-2016, 02:07 PM
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#158
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heep223
Apologies. I'd never actually engaged him but now I know.
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He's got you seeing double
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10-08-2016, 02:22 PM
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#159
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In the Sin Bin
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I honestly can't believe that people bothered continuing to interact with ricardodw when he claimed both that +/- is an "advanced stat" and that it is meaningful. That's the kind of crazy talk a drug addled homeless guy on the corner by Crack Macs would say. And people would just shuffle by him awkwardly.
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