[Rumour] UPD: Friedman: Thinks a deal will get done between Gaudreau and the Flames in the next week

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by saillias

Me neither, it's a non-issue. If Gaudreau somehow never produces on the road and remains what he is at home (an unprecedented oddity), he would still be an amazing player just from his contributions in those 41 games.

People talk about consistency but there's no such thing as a player who scores a goal or an assist every other game consistently and never hits a rut or a hot streak. Every player is streaky.

for 6x6 ufa's you don't expect 100% consistency.

For Gaudreau who is looking at 8-10m for his ufa years you are paying for Kane, Crosby Ovechkin Perry scoring consistency These are guys that don't PK either ie they are getting paid almost exclusively to generate offense. If they go 5 goals in their 1st 24 games like Gaudreau did last year it is NHL wide headline news.

3.5-4 x2 get him back on the ice now.

[bubbsy]

Flames had the 3rd worst road record in the entire NHL last season. Gaudreau fundamental points that he is judged on, goals, assists, points, are very low on the road.

Now, one could suggest that it's an aberration, a one off type thing, but when a player only has 2 seasons in the league, the sample size it what it is.... In this case, 50% of the player's career indicates this fluctuation, it also is the most recent half, which indicates a negative trend (albeit with only 2 data points - year1 & year2).

Are the flames fair to use this as part of the negotiation, absolutely, i don't know how one could refute that.

That being said, if i'm gaudreau camp, i would then prefer to go for a bridge deal so as to prove that this is not a pattern, and in the long run not worthy of resulting in a lesser contract.

This is also not an enviable position for the flames, so though it is a factor in the negotiation, it's likely a minor factor amongst dozens of others as both sides try to find middle ground $.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

Flames had the 3rd worst road record in the entire NHL last season. Gaudreau fundamental points that he is judged on, goals, assists, points, are very low on the road.

Now, one could suggest that it's an aberration, a one off type thing, but when a player only has 2 seasons in the league, the sample size it what it is.... In this case, 50% of the player's career indicates this fluctuation, it also is the most recent half, which indicates a negative trend (albeit with only 2 data points - year1 & year2).

Are the flames fair to use this as part of the negotiation, absolutely, i don't know how one could refute that.

That being said, if i'm gaudreau camp, i would then prefer to go for a bridge deal so as to prove that this is not a pattern, and in the long run not worthy of resulting in a lesser contract.

This is also not an enviable position for the flames, so though it is a factor in the negotiation, it's likely a minor factor amongst dozens of others as both sides try to find middle ground $.

Even worse it seem that the NHL coaches had a chance to look at the 2014-15 film and adapt their approach to the Flames to shut Gaudreau down.

What is the odds that they don't extend this to playing Gaudreau on the road versus Gaudreau adjusting to be productive on the road?


It was pretty much accepted that the 2014-15 Flames had the benefit of being taken too lightly... there was not a lot of focus on shutting them down.

Last year they were taken seriously and it came down to shut down the Gaudreau line and you beat the Flames.

[saillias]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

for 6x6 ufa's you don't expect 100% consistency.

For Gaudreau who is looking at 8-10m for his ufa years you are paying for Kane, Crosby Ovechkin Perry scoring consistency These are guys that don't PK either ie they are getting paid almost exclusively to generate offense. If they go 5 goals in their 1st 24 games like Gaudreau did last year it is NHL wide headline news.

3.5-4 x2 get him back on the ice now.

I was with you until the last line. Are you keeping in the loop with the news and speculation from the talking heads? because there's no one anywhere proposing that number

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Even worse it seem that the NHL coaches had a chance to look at the 2014-15 film and adapt their approach to the Flames to shut Gaudreau down.

What is the odds that they don't extend this to playing Gaudreau on the road against Gaudreau adjusting to be productive on the road?


It was pretty much accepted that the 2014-15 Flames had the benefit of being taken too lightly... there was not a lot of focus on shutting them down.

Last year they were taken seriously and it came down to shut down the Gaudreau line and you beat the Flames.

This is solved by having more than one scoring line. When that happens his on the road numbers will go up.

Last year Flames were a one trick (line) pony.

IMO that's not on him, nor is it much of a bargaining chip for the Flames to play.

'He should take less because of our inability to develop or acquire other productive players.'

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Last year they were taken seriously and it came down to shut down the Gaudreau line and you beat the Flames.

And this year Bennett and Brouwer (and maybe Tkatchuk) say "hi".

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Somewhere this morning Johnny is looking in a mirror - brushing his teeth with his skittles toothbrush and skittles flavored toothpaste, thinking about what he can buy with roughly 50 million dollars.

[polak]

Every morning since July I've been hoping to open this thread and have the "latest post" thing on the home page read "[Signing] Flames Sign John....."

Alas, another morning has come and I continue to hope....

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by polak

Every morning since July I've been hoping to open this thread and have the "latest post" thing on the home page read "[Signing] Flames Sign John....."

Alas, another morning has come and I continue to hope....

Are you expecting them to be working overnight? The negotiations aren't taking place in Tokyo.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

I disagree with that. It's more likely than not that Gaudreau stays level or improves over the next 6 years. Cap inflation is more likely to be >3% than it is to be <3%.

Is there a risk that he regresses, or that the cap level stagnates? Sure. But the former seems unlikely and the latter would be unprecedented.

Crude is trading under $50
The exchange rate is at 1.32
7 of the wealthiest contributors to league revenue are based on Canada.

We're talking about a leak of almost $300M according to Forbes last estimates for income for the Canadian franchises.

The NHLPA hummed and hawed over the escalator this year because they didn't like the escrow.

Assuming any kind of increase is foolish at this point.

[FBI]

Dammit. woke up and went to CP hoping for a signing thread. Really want Johnny to get ONE preseason game.

[Bandwagon In Flames]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

You're right, sorry about that RC. I misinterpreted what you said. My fault - I'm gonna go ahead and blame it on baby insomnia.

You may continue ignoring me.

This thread is causing me baby insomnia. I wish the baby would just go back to bed.

Can we stop spamming this thread and save it for some more level headed posts? We've been in an endless loop of debating with you for weeks. Let's give someone else a chance.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by polak

Every morning since July I've been hoping to open this thread and have the "latest post" thing on the home page read "[Signing] Flames Sign John....."

Alas, another morning has come and I continue to hope....

Ramage?

Racine?

Michael Liles?

Scott?

WHICH JOHN IS IT???

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Crude is trading under $50
The exchange rate is at 1.32
7 of the wealthiest contributors to league revenue are based on Canada.

We're talking about a leak of almost $300M according to Forbes last estimates for income for the Canadian franchises.

The NHLPA hummed and hawed over the escalator this year because they didn't like the escrow.

Assuming any kind of increase is foolish at this point.

Plus, a new team is entering the league next year, so any revenue that the league generates as a whole, which is currently split 30 ways, will soon be split 31 ways.

While not reducing overall revenue, that could impact the per-team split of revenue, which could have a negative impact on the salary cap.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by saillias

I was with you until the last line. Are you keeping in the loop with the news and speculation from the talking heads? because there's no one anywhere proposing that number

That is the way out.... They Flames can't make him sign a long term deal at a reasonable amount and Gaudreau has no bargaining power.

He is a bit more important than Hurbedeau was to the Panthers..... but not by that much..... Hurbedeau being their leading scorer by 10 pts... 54 pts +10 in a normal defense first system. His 54 pts would be a lot more (maybe 70+) in a run and gun and let the goalie be brilliant Flames system that gaudreau had last year.

Hurbedeau was signed for 3.25x2 after holding his breath Gaudreau style and took a step forward being a top forward on a playoff team 59 pts +17 earning a 5.9x6 extension.


Why does Calgary have to pay a premium?

[Alpine Fisher]

Johnny plays fine on the road. All of the world cup games were not at the saddledome.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Alpine Fisher

Johnny plays fine on the road. All of the world cup games were not at the saddledome.

Might be the dumbest post I've ever seen.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Might be the dumbest post I've ever seen.

It's up there

[dino7c]

If he had road stats like his home stats he would have led the league in scoring and we would be talking even higher numbers

[JerryUnderscore]

Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime

I'm just saying I'd sooner believe he'll be worth that than believe he won't be. If I was making a bet, I'd take the over. I mean Lucic and a bunch of other average 1st line players just signed deals worth ~8% of the cap. That 6M would likely equate to ~7.4M in 7 years.

I have to think it's more likely that Johnny puts up 70-105 point/pace seasons over the next 6 years. That would put him in Kane territory prior to his deal, and favorable to Benn and Stamkos. It would be a fairly strong case for a huge UFA deal.

In 7 years, I wouldn't be surprised if he was worth closer to 11.5 -12.5M in 2016 cap dollars. That's where he'd be if he just keeps pace with last year's production.

Okay, maybe this is pedantic of me, but there's a difference between saying "In seven years Gaudreau is likely to be a $9.9M+ player" and "In seven years Gaudreau is most likely to be a $9.9M+ player".

There are too many variables for me to comfortable speak about what is a likely scenario. Even if one scenario is the most likely, I'm still not ready to say it's a likely scenario and put money on it.

Here's an illustration. If you roll two dice, the odds of each number coming up are as follows:

2: 2.778%
3: 5.556%
4: 8.333%
5: 11.111%
6: 13.889%
7: 16.667%
8: 13.889%
9: 11.111%
10: 8.333%
11: 5.556%
12: 2.778%

If you asked me what number would be most likely to get rolled, I would tell you 7. It has a 16.667% of happening; better likelihood than any other number. But if you asked me if a 7 is likely to get rolled, I'd say no because there is an 83.333% chance that something else will happen instead.

I see Gaudreau 7 years from now the same way. Could he be a $9.9M+ player? Sure. In fact, that might be the most likely scenario. But is it a likely scenario? Not really. There are just too many variables.

So, let's go ahead and sign him to the longest, most cap friendly deal we can now and deal with Gaudreau's next contract closer to the time it's going to get signed.