The New American Politics thread

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by New Era

The most important thing to consider about electoral college votes is which states are absolutes for each candidate and which states are in play. Utah is, and has always been solid Republican territory. A loss to a third party candidate hurts the Republicans as this was six electoral votes they were solidly counting on. To the Dems, a loss of Utah to a third party is irrelevant as it wasn't in their expected path to 270. The Republicans need Utah, and a loss there severely hurts their campaign. They lose Utah and they have to win an extra swing state.

Which is why it's pretty much all about Florida. I posted this a bit back, and the Upshot has actually been updated now to include Georgia as a swing state, which is a total nightmare for the GOP that they might have to put significant resources into defending a state like Georgia. But if Hillary can put Florida down, then Trump needs a miracle

[wittynickname]

Originally Posted by dobbles

Was listening to NPR taking my son to school this morning and they had a segment about Hilary giving the first ever student speech at her Wellesley commencement in 1969. What I found interesting is that there was a speaker before her who was the first ever popularly elected black senator. Apparently in his remarks he advocated incremental change and not protesting. Hilary disagreed and started off her speech with some unscripted remarks. They played the audio of her remarks and I thought she had a really good flow. I found that odd as I feel like she is such a robotic speaker now. Someone that doesn't have the charisma and improvisation that we have seen by so many others this week.

Just thought it was interesting. Here is a link to the story:
http://www.npr.org/2016/07/28/486799...-the-spotlight

I wanted to bring this up after all the semantics talk that ruined several pages worth of this thread. I caught the same segment on NPR and was really impressed by her tone and candor in that clip, she sounded confident and comfortable. If that Hillary came out tonight, she'd do herself a ton of good.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Right on the money Senator. Florida is Trump's Battle of Kursk. He loses that and it's all over but the embarrassment. As it is, Trump needs to win battleground Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, Iowa, and North Carolina too. The path is ugly for him.

[Thor]

I want this election to be a statement for the Conservatives, the sane ones to take back their party from these nutbags on the right, and a major loss would be an outstanding way to help them do just that.

[AltaGuy]

The problem is that the frothy-mouthers in Congress will spend the next four or eight years hating Hillary Clinton because that's what their constituents want. The obstructionism is going to be insane.

I honestly do not know what will become of the Republican party now.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Thor

I want this election to be a statement for the Conservatives, the sane ones to take back their party from these nutbags on the right, and a major loss would be an outstanding way to help them do just that.

But who's that. Trump beat all those nutbags on the right.
So the nutbags (Cruz) will just say I told you so.

[GGG]

Hillary also needs to defend Pensylvania which is a state that favours trump more then a generic republican. So if trump can keep Pensylvania in play he can lose one of Florida or Ohio. Though typically it's unlikely to win Pensylvania and lose Florida but with Trump things will change from the norm.

[Thor]

Yeah change in congress is where its needed most, but with all the gerrymandering I don't know if its even possible without some massive wave of political action on behalf of the Democrats to excite their voters. I honestly think if Bernie had been the candidate that possibility would be there, much less so with Clinton.

[2Stonedbirds]

Well now...

http://globalnews.ca/news/2854414/no...-declared-war/

[GirlySports]

the only way the republicans change is if Trump wins, as crazy as that sounds.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I dunno, I mean, she's a Fox pundit, so "herself" is still pretty right wing. It's just far more bearable than others in that category. I can watch her. I cannot watch Hannity.

Megyn Kelly really loved that Obama Speech

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...eave-fox-news/

[rubecube]

I'd love it if the Democrats brought up Trump's anti-vaxx stuff but they probably can't because there are bunch of dumbass, white liberals who are also anti-vaxx.

[Thor]

Originally Posted by 2Stonedbirds

Well now...

http://globalnews.ca/news/2854414/no...-declared-war/

Its like a kid who's craving attention from his parents, but instead of just crying he's holding on to a hand grenade in the house and saying "I'll pull the pin, I WILL"

[Itse]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

the only way the republicans change is if Trump wins, as crazy as that sounds.

Quite the opposite. As a general rule in politics, losers change and winners stay the course.

2000 Bush won over Al Gore, who was kind of trying to be Bill Clinton light.

2004 Democrats go with Kerry, who had clearly more conservative appeal than Al Gore.

2008 Democrats go from Kerry to Obama. Repulicans on the other hand go with McCain/Palin, another gosh darned conservative Real America kind of ticket very much trying to push the same buttons as Bush.

2012 Republicans go with a much more moderate candidate in Romney.

2016 Republicans make a complete 180 and go to Trump, who is about as different from Romney as two old white conservative millionaire men can be.
Democrats on the other hand are going with their other option from the 2008 election, another intellectual moderate with a background in civil service.

If Trump wins, Republicans will see his way as the winning strategy and their next candidate will be another populist loudmouth.

[Azure]

Man we are going to miss Obama. At this point the world will miss him.

We'll miss his wife too. She has done such a great job at the First Lady that people forgot she was even there.

Sad world we live in when the only choice the US has for the next President are two nutjobs.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Azure

Sad world we live in when the only choice the US has for the next President are two nutjobs.

People should really stop making these completely ridiculous "equivalencies".

Hillary Clinton is not a nutjob. Not even her opponents call her a nutjob.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Azure

Man we are going to miss Obama. At this point the world will miss him.

We'll miss his wife too. She has done such a great job at the First Lady that people forgot she was even there.

Sad world we live in when the only choice the US has for the next President are two nutjobs.

This is how trump will win. The false equivelencies that somehow they are equally bad.

Hillary is the most scrutinized person on the planet. You know exactly what you are getting. A person who will intervene in global affairs, won't curtail Wall Street, and will tax the rich to fund programs for the poor. She will protect civil liberties. You know exactly what Hillary will due. Whether it's good or bad is up to you but it's a low risk choice with a known outcome.

Trump is a buffoon, who as psychopathic leanings, a pathological liar, and a terrible unethical business man. The best hope of a trump presidency is a chooses to be a puppet or a a mad super genius who has been lying this whole time to win. Those are the best case scenarios. It could get worse.

It certainly isn't a choice between two nut jobs.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Itse

Quite the opposite. As a general rule in politics, losers change and winners stay the course.

2000 Bush won over Al Gore, who was kind of trying to be Bill Clinton light.

2004 Democrats go with Kerry, who had clearly more conservative appeal than Al Gore.

2008 Democrats go from Kerry to Obama. Repulicans on the other hand go with McCain/Palin, another gosh darned conservative Real America kind of ticket very much trying to push the same buttons as Bush.

2012 Republicans go with a much more moderate candidate in Romney.

2016 Republicans make a complete 180 and go to Trump, who is about as different from Romney as two old white conservative millionaire men can be.
Democrats on the other hand are going with their other option from the 2008 election, another intellectual moderate with a background in civil service.

If Trump wins, Republicans will see his way as the winning strategy and their next candidate will be another populist loudmouth.

Trump does mean change to the republicans cause hes more moderate than the right nutjobs. Thats how crazy they are.

[Buster]

Originally Posted by GGG

This is how trump will win. The false equivelencies that somehow they are equally bad.

Hillary is the most scrutinized person on the planet. You know exactly what you are getting. A person who will intervene in global affairs, won't curtail Wall Street, and will tax the rich to fund programs for the poor. She will protect civil liberties. You know exactly what Hillary will due. Whether it's good or bad is up to you but it's a low risk choice with a known outcome.

Trump is a buffoon, who as psychopathic leanings, a pathological liar, and a terrible unethical business man. The best hope of a trump presidency is a chooses to be a puppet or a a mad super genius who has been lying this whole time to win. Those are the best case scenarios. It could get worse.

It certainly isn't a choice between two nut jobs.

I would agree with this. Except maybe the liar part.

Hillary has a long history being a liar.

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by Itse

People should really stop making these completely ridiculous "equivalencies".

Hillary Clinton is not a nutjob. Not even her opponents call her a nutjob.

We've just seen in this very thread the type of "discourse" involved here: is Trump a racist or merely a bigot or merely liked by racist bigots? Just like Hillary, who is a criminal or a quasi-criminal or merely liked by criminals? Right?

Defend/mitigate against the most heinous aspects of Trump; simultaneously hammer away at every negative aspect real or imagined of Hillary until the two are roughly equivalent in their depravities.

Every Republican who has endorsed the awfulness that is Trump will be doing the same thing: slowly drawing the two together in everyone's mind until it could possibly, maybe be palatable to hold one's nose and vote Trump for an independent even though the two choices are not remotely alike in their possible repercussions.