Flames cap situation 2016-17

[Itse]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

4.5 or 3.5 ....either way he will not likely get that from the Flames unless they unload Wideman first.

If they can change Engellend for something cheaper, that would also cover at least most of the difference. Russell already makes 2.6M, so we're not talking crazy raises.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

There was a post that suggested Hudler would be re-signed/ extended for 7M.

Gave me pause to think if that was possible.

Current Flames contract cap hits for 2016-17 (not counting Smid's 3.5M)

Dougie Hamilton - $5,750,000
Dennis Wideman - $5,250,000
T.J. Brodie - $4,650,000
Michael Frolik - $4,300,000
Mikael Backlund - $3,575,000
Mason Raymond - $3,150,000
Matt Stajan - $3,125,000
Deryk Engelland - $2,916,668
Brandon Bollig - $1,250,000
Sam Bennett - $925,000

That's 10 contracts... Bennett has a chance to get 2.5M in bonuses

Then guesses

Monahan - 6,000,000
Gaudreau - 6,000,000
Gio - 7,500,000
Hudler - 7,000,000

Total cap hit 61.4 M

Having the cap go up by 5% would put it at 75M

That leaves just under 14M to sign 7-8 players -- 5-6 Skaters and 2 goalies including Bouma and Colborne and Russell.

This kind of points out that the Flames don't plan to sign Hudler to a big contract... his extra cap room was spent on Frolik.

The Flames spending spree (Backlund, Hamilton, Frolik) is over .... There is absolutely no room to take on any more cap.

The 2015-16 Flames roster is going to be pretty close to as good as it gets for the next few years. Any team improvement will depend on organization growth and development.

Raymond, Bollig and Stajan could all easily be gone by this time next season. If pressed, each one of them is replaceable, right now, with players in the system. That's $7.5M right there. Wideman is another big ticket player that could very easily find himself pressed out of the lineup if Wotherspoon or Morrison step up and show they are ready to play. There is another $5.25M gone. That's almost $14M, or $10M after replacement contracts, that can come off the books just by promoting players into positions where they fit.

I also find it difficult to believe that Hudler would be getting a contract that sees him getting a $7M cap hit. He'll be riding shot gun on the top line for the next couple of years, but after that his place on the team will begin to diminish, and with that the money he is to be paid. I could see the Flames giving him a couple years at the big salary, but then two to three years at smaller salaries to drag the cap hit down. Something along the lines of $7/7/5.5/4.5/3.5, which would be a $5.5M cap hit for the next five years. That is some pretty good scratch for a guy who is going to be 32 when his next contract starts, and will take him to 38, or retirement age. Hudler is a consistent 15-20 goal guy and should be paid accordingly. He is still very affordable for the Flames.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by New Era

Raymond, Bollig and Stajan could all easily be gone by this time next season. If pressed, each one of them is replaceable, right now, with players in the system. That's $7.5M right there. Wideman is another big ticket player that could very easily find himself pressed out of the lineup if Wotherspoon or Morrison step up and show they are ready to play. There is another $5.25M gone. That's almost $14M, or $10M after replacement contracts, that can come off the books just by promoting players into positions where they fit.

I also find it difficult to believe that Hudler would be getting a contract that sees him getting a $7M cap hit. He'll be riding shot gun on the top line for the next couple of years, but after that his place on the team will begin to diminish, and with that the money he is to be paid. I could see the Flames giving him a couple years at the big salary, but then two to three years at smaller salaries to drag the cap hit down. Something along the lines of $7/7/5.5/4.5/3.5, which would be a $5.5M cap hit for the next five years. That is some pretty good scratch for a guy who is going to be 32 when his next contract starts, and will take him to 38, or retirement age. Hudler is a consistent 15-20 goal guy and should be paid accordingly. He is still very affordable for the Flames.

Yes Hudler might deserve a 5.5x4 contract....

Please look at the spreadsheet that InCoGnEtO posted on this thread,
look at the 2016-17 tab....

Without Russell, Hudler, Jones the Flames are 3.7M under the cap with the cheapest goalie cap hit in the league and having only 22 contracts in the NHL (most teams will have 24 to cover minor injuries flus etc) As well we are not matching Monahan and Gaudreau the offer sheet rate that could be coming their way and somehow signing Gio for 7.5

1)Bollig makes no difference cap wise .. not significant cap savings for his replacement

2) It is easier to say that Stajan and Raymond will be gone than actually unloading them. Raymond is not any better than he was 2 summers ago when he signed the try out contract with the Leafs for 1M. What team will want to pay him that kind of money? Stajan has some value , but there are not a lot of teams where he slots in at any better than a 3/4 centre.

The only way I can see them being moved is with a buy out or retained salary.

Buying out Stajan next summer leaves a cap hit of 680K for 2016/17 followed by a cap hit of 1 M and 2M the next 2 years.

3) Wideman does have value at his contract. He was the top pair with Russell for the flames last 30 games.... The games where they didn't fold down the stretch and won a playoff series and actually competed with the Ducks.

Dumping wideman for picks would leave the Flames with Gio-Brodie Hamilton-Engelland as the Flames top 4..and hope and filler as 5-8... that IMO will be a significant down grade on Wideman-Russell Gio-Brodie and Engelland as #5.

So Hudler can stay if Wideman goes.... Is Wotherspoon and Morrison better fillers than Porier/Klimchuck/Arnold? Actually it is one of Kulak/Culkin/Sieloff as Morrison and Wotherspoon are already in InCoGnEtO's 22 man 206-17 roster

If Hudler signs for 5.5x4 it leaves the Flames in cap jail when someone offers Bennett 6x6 in July 2016.

[Rhettzky]

I don't think they buy Stajan out. Salary in his last year is 2.5 Mil so it's more likely that they unload him on a cap floor team.

Either way, lots can happen between now and the start of next year. Don't really get the point of this thread at this stage.

[Gaskal]

2016-17 might be tight, but the season after that Engelland, Smid, Wideman and Raymond come off the books if they aren't traded by then. That's almost $15M in cap space and the only major thing we'd be worrying about that offseason is paying Sam Bennett.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Please look at the spreadsheet that InCoGnEtO posted on this thread,
look at the 2016-17 tab.

That spreadsheet is so flawed. Every player he projects for salary is grossly overpaid. Ortio at $3M? Colborne at $3M? Bouma at $3M? Granlund at $1.5M? You can go on and on. Those overpayments quickly add up and screw the projection up. There is no way those support players get those big salaries, not when Treliving is delivering great contracts for core players, contracts below market value. Again, way too much panic over something that is very easy to address. If Clarkson's contract can be moved, any contract, especially short term ones, can be moved.

[FBI]

Overestimating is much better than underestimating for the purposes of the exercise IMO.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by New Era

That spreadsheet is so flawed. Every player he projects for salary is grossly overpaid. Ortio at $3M? Colborne at $3M? Bouma at $3M? Granlund at $1.5M? You can go on and on. Those overpayments quickly add up and screw the projection up. There is no way those support players get those big salaries, not when Treliving is delivering great contracts for core players, contracts below market value. Again, way too much panic over something that is very easy to address. If Clarkson's contract can be moved, any contract, especially short term ones, can be moved.

The Leaf's have 36M to spend on getting rid of Clarkson.... That is what they will be paying Horton.

The Flames in a similar situation were not willing to spend 3-4M to get rid of Kotalik.

[Incogneto]

Originally Posted by New Era

That spreadsheet is so flawed. Every player he projects for salary is grossly overpaid. Ortio at $3M? Colborne at $3M? Bouma at $3M? Granlund at $1.5M? You can go on and on. Those overpayments quickly add up and screw the projection up. There is no way those support players get those big salaries, not when Treliving is delivering great contracts for core players, contracts below market value. Again, way too much panic over something that is very easy to address. If Clarkson's contract can be moved, any contract, especially short term ones, can be moved.

This was done on purpose. As was $6M deals for Monahan and Gaudreau. And $6.5M for Bennett. I was trying to show TOP END deals that would be the worst case scenario.

If you would like, I can make new tabs with your numbers to see what the situation is going forward. Just tell me the players and extension numbers you would like me to put in.

Hmm...maybe I will work on making this a google doc form that will allow you to play with the numbers yourself.....

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

Thats me. Here is the link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

You can update the spread sheet with Bouma's 2.2 x 3 contract. Leaves 8.5M cap space for 2 players.... might be able to hang on to Russell or maybe Hudler/Wideman if they like it in Calgary and the Flames still want them

[heep223]

If you assume $6M contracts for Johnny and Monny, and $5M for both goalies combined, it leaves $9.2M for: Colborne, Russell, Hudler, Jones, Granlund and inexpensive depth. Jones is the obvious one to let go of. Can you sign the remaining guys for $9.2M? That's the question. God I hope we can keep Hudler.

PS: where's Smid? Analysis assumes he's going on LTIR?

[Fire]

Keeping Hudler will be pretty much impossible if the don't move out or buy-out some of the bad contracts. At the time I didn't think Engelland's and Raymond's contract would have caused cap problems because they were only 3 year deals, but I was wrong.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

...The Flames spending spree (Backlund, Hamilton, Frolik) is over .... There is absolutely no room to take on any more cap.

The 2015-16 Flames roster is going to be pretty close to as good as it gets for the next few years. Any team improvement will depend on organization growth and development.

Honestly, so much can happen in the course of a year that your assertions here are practically meaningless. I expect it to be highly likely that the roster will still change between now and the beginning of the season. There will be more change before Christmas, and again by the TD in 2016. There will be yet more change before free agency hits in July 2016...

...And you have the temerity to declare that this is "as good as it gets"?

Whatever.

[Incogneto]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

You can update the spread sheet with Bouma's 2.2 x 3 contract. Leaves 8.5M cap space for 2 players.... might be able to hang on to Russell or maybe Hudler/Wideman if they like it in Calgary and the Flames still want them

It was updated this afternoon.

I still think the next big salary out of town is Wideman. He would free up over $5M next year, and I feel we have a few d-men that are pushing for icetime. Guys like Culkin, Hickey, and Morrison.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

I still think the next big salary out of town is Wideman.

Very likely. If not Wideman, I'm thinking it could be Jones. Decent player, but there are a lot of forwards knocking on the door and making less money, and he could get pushed out.

It seems strange, after all these years, to talk about having prospects who could realistically put NHL vets out of their jobs.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Jones stajan Raymond engelland wideman bollig hudler and smid will all be gone by the time Bennett needs a contract. In 2 years we will be talking about how the assets we got for those players are panning out. We should trade wideman and hudler. Both at peak value. Raymond is horrible. Bollig is almost useless. Stajan is a legend and deserves to go to a team that will pay him. Engelland is a warrior but not talented enough. Hudler we can't afford although he is a wizard. Jones is the most frustrating player in our entire organisation.

These players won't be around. Most will be surpassed by prospects and have to be traded. Hudler and wideman we just can't keep. I'd say half of these guys will be gone by the trade deadline. Bollig smid ltir Raymond Jones all gone this year for sure.hudler and wides we may have to keep if the team is in a playoff spot. Which could mean their value goes down or we lose them for nothing ala cammelleri

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Honestly, so much can happen in the course of a year that your assertions here are practically meaningless. I expect it to be highly likely that the roster will still change between now and the beginning of the season. There will be more change before Christmas, and again by the TD in 2016. There will be yet more change before free agency hits in July 2016...

...And you have the temerity to declare that this is "as good as it gets"?

Whatever.

so you think that the Flames will be adding to the core that they have now?

In one years time the Flames will be a cap team without adding any new players. They can tamper at the edges possibly replacing Stajan/Raymond before their contracts expire to hang onto Russell (for example) but not change the essence of the team.

This is the year that they get to keep Hudler/Wideman/Russell/Jones to complement the core of

Brodie/Gio/Hamilton/Monahan/Gaudreau/Bennett/Frolik.

In the 2016-17 the high paid veterans get replaced by lower paid prospects.... ready or not.

There may be (should be) internal growth in Monahan, Bennett and Gaudreau being even better.

Brodie/Gio/Hamilton/Monahan/Gaudreau/Bennett/Frolik are in place

will they be as good as Toews/Kane/Hossa/Sharp/Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmarson were for the last 5-6 years?

In Chicago's first cup run they had Ladd, Byfuglien, Brian Campbell, Stopel, Brouwer as support players who they had to drop and replace with prospects because Toews, Kane and Hjalmarson were using the cap space. The 2010 Hawks were as good as they got and they just happened to be really good..

[Yanda]

Oh no! Where will we find the extra 300k we overpaid fpr Bouma. The threads today make it seem like the sky is falling.

[Trailer Fire]

Originally Posted by Yanda

Oh no! Where will we find the extra 300k we overpaid fpr Bouma. The threads today make it seem like the sky is falling.

Dog days of summer. I tell myself to avoid CP around summer time, but every July rolls around and I'm still here reading and posting nonsense.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Yanda

Oh no! Where will we find the extra 300k we overpaid fpr Bouma. The threads today make it seem like the sky is falling.

Every dollar overpaid to one player has to come out of the budget elsewhere. You really need to see the numbers in action to get a better understanding of what a few dollars here and there means. Take a $70M budget as an example, which is a fair number to use considering the cap and the space you need for call-ups for injuries and such. I would think a healthy budget breakdown is going to look like $40M on forwards, $24M on defense, and $6M on goaltending. So something like this, taking names out the mix.

$7M-$7M-$5M
$3M-$5M-$3M
$2M-$3M-$2M
$1M-$1M-$1M
$.75M-$.75M

$7M-$5M
$4M-$3M
$2M-$1.5M
.75M

$5M
$1M

That projection actually comes out $70.75M, or just a hair over budget. When you start plugging names and numbers into the matrix you start to see how actual dollars and cutting corners here and there mean all the difference in the world. We'll look at the defense as the best example, because we are about to hit the crunch there immediately, and because the balance in the Flames forward lines is so completely messed up (Treliving has his work cut out for him).

Giordano ($4.0M), Hamilton ($5.75)
Wideman ($5.25M), Brodie ($4.65)
Engelland ($2.92M), Russell ($2.6M)
Wotherspoon ($.925M)

Total: $26.1M or $2.1 over budget. Now, try and work those numbers knowing that Giordano is asking $9M! You have to hope he'll come around and take that $7M number, but you are already paying Hamilton $.75M over budget for that pairing, so $6.25M is what you can really afford. On the 2nd pair you have to lose Wideman outright. You can't afford that salary, especially when Brodie is $.65M over what you hope to pay. So a defenseman to play with Brodie now has to be a $2.35M player. On the third pair you have to get rid of Engelland all together and replace him with a guy that is at a Wotherspoon level salary. Then you have to replace Wotherspoon with a guy that is cheaper yet. So to get to the numbers you think are going to be needed your budget on defense is going to look more like this.

Giordano ($7M), Hamilton ($5.75M)
Brodie ($4.65M), Player X ($2.25M)
Russell ($2.6M), Wotherspoon $(.925M)
Morrison ($.925M)

You are being forced to lose Wideman and Engelland, and bringing in a defenseman of a substantially lessar value on your second pair because of moving a few dollars to another guy. See, a couple hundred grand here and there makes a pretty substantial difference. So when you over-pay a guy like Bouma $300-500K, that means it has to come out of a player somewhere else, and can result in a much lesser player than maybe you had hoped to have in the lineup. This also shows the importance of always having cheap young talent rolling through the organization and keeping the upper level salaries in check.