CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Vote 1 with deleted town

activeStick (8): squiggs96, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, Timbo, Oling_Roachinen, GGG,
GirlySports (5): Lego Man, Party Elephant, mrkajz44,
East Coast Flame (1): Peanut
Hockeyguy15 (1): dissentowner

So if I assume Oling is town, and I know my alignment (yes I know, roll your eyes). That leaves squiggs, bizaro, Timbo and GGG voting for activeStick, I am not so sure that there is more than 1 host in that block. I am wondering if the hosts were a little weary about voting with Oling since they gave him the spore and he wasn't turned, maybe setting up for day 2?

That leaves Lego, PE, mrkajz, Peanut, Diss as probably 2 hosts in that block.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Vote 2 with deleted town

GirlySports (9): dissentowner, Timbo, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, Lego Man, squiggs96, Peanut
Timbo (3): GGG, mrkajz44, Oling_Roachinen
Hockeyguy15 (2): Party Elephant

Now on this vote the people who also voted activeStick are Timbo, bizaro, and squiggs. I am thinking it's probably less likely that the hosts would want to vote back to back lynches.

That leaves Diss, Lego, and Peanut as first time lynchers. It also leaves GGG as the only person to "bail" on lynching 2 times in a row, however he used his own reasoning to not vote Girly rather than being a follower so that says something to me.

Then mrkajz and PE both didn't lynch again.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Vote 3 with deleted town

East Coast Flame (7): GGG, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86, Party Elephant, Peanut
mrkajz44 (5): Hockeyguy15, squiggs96, Timbo, Lego Man,
Hockeyguy15 (3): mrkajz44, dissentowner,

Looking at the first 2 votes my most "suspicious" voters are Lego, mrkajz, peanut, PE, and Diss as I think there is likely 2 hosts in that group. Then looking at vote 3 when things started to get hairy for a few people, I am instantly suspicious of mrkajz and diss because they both voted for me, I think there is at least 1 host out of those 2. Out of PE and Peanut I think there is at least 1 host. Lego Man I am less suspicious of as he voted for mrkajz.

I have to get back to work now, so sorry I didn't do the rest of the days but hopefully the first 3 days is good enough to kick start some thoughts today.

[squiggs96]

Let's suppose a scenario where Oling and I are both town, and both unturned right now.

As it stands, neither Oling nor I trust each other. We both think the other is a host. We have clearly stated our thoughts on this. If we are both town, then the scum clearly benefit from this. If we are both town, the scum's best play is to have me lynched. I've left enough evidence and thoughts that when I flip town, it should be an easy vote to go after Oling on Day 7 and lynch him. In this specific scenario where Oling and I are both town, this would be six townies lynched in seven days. If the captain does control the spore right now, then they don't have to waste send it to either of us, since we are both going to ensure the other dies upon our card flip.

Right now the people discrediting my thoughts against Oling are Party Elephant, mrkajz, and starseed. All three have been vocal about how I am clearly a host and have sided with Oling. All three are currently voting for me right now. PE is the leading vote getter (4-3 over me) and the other two were the ones involved in the deadline tie. What are the odds that mrkajz, starseed, PE, Oling and I are all town? I'm guessing very slim. In this scenario I'm discussing Oling and I are town, so that would leave at least one of mrkajz, starseed or PE as scum. I think that's a very likely situation.

Since Oling has been willing to put down his sword against me, when he very likely could have continued and had me lynched today, I'll do the same. For now.

unvote

vote mrkajz44

I said it was my biggest regret in the game when I unvoted him, so I am trying to right that wrong. Since mrk is already voting for me, and so are the two others who have been most vocal against me, I'm not worried about revenge votes.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I agree that its possible we have 5 scum, however, I think if that was the case that we'd have seen a stronger push for a hammer when either squiggs or party had the vote run up on them. It seems probable that one of them is town. (I think both are suspicious, but the odds that we went two for two on running the vote up on scum isn't good, imo).

Both of them had 4 votes, and we're at 7 for a hammer, so scum/turned being 5 people could have pretty easily added 3 more and gotten the lynch to go into night with a 50/50 chance of winning the game before the start of the next day.

Normally I'm a math guy, but this is more of a psychology game, and I doubt the hosts would have been able to resist the opportunity to go for the win. If they didn't get a turn they'd still have a good chance to win on lynch tomorrow.

So I think it's most likely that we have 3 scum and 1 turned. In your two scenarios, that probably means whoever got the spore today didn't turn. If that's the case, should whoever gets it send it to pux to get a no-spore day or send it to our second choice, so we can lynch them tomorrow and potentially net a host and stop the spore for a day? If we send it to pux she has to send it on...

Well, I think GGG is right. If the Government Agent did kill SebC they should come forward as the potential for 2 turned exist, and we are in a potential lynch or lose scenario. It only means we could lose. I think we should discuss that, and see if anyone disagrees with that thinking.

But even with 5 scum, the scum don't get a free win if we lynch town. They need to first avoid having the Government Agent kill one of the turned and hope that the spore is passed to a passenger who turns. If they aren't in danger, or at least know they could sway the vote without coming off too obvious, it makes sense to just sit back and relax without tipping their hand needlessly.


----------
As for my vote for Timbo. I'm not one to usually use percentages for things like this but it illustrates my thinking best. I may be 45% sure Squiggs96 is host. Not confident, but about as confident I can get in a game like this. If I had to pick a percentage for Timbo being host, maybe at tops 20%. I just think if he is town, he's got about a 50% chance of being turned so I feel like there's a much better chance of hitting scum, maybe not host.

On top of the reasons listed in my voting for him, which all point to him playing a different game today than he was yesterday, I don't think he's been in any trouble at all. He's a good candidate for the spore. As far as I know he's not on anyone's host list. He was almost certainly not going to get lynched today and had very little reason for him to be checked at the time he would have been sent the spore.

[squiggs96]

I've read the OP a few times, and I'm still not sure what happened to the spore if Seb was killed by the Agent. The Agent can determine a player’s alignment and kill them if they are turned. If this is how Seb died, then does the spore stay with him? If the holder of the spore is not lynched and the host wishes to recover it, they must kill a turned player and wait the timeframes listed previously. If the Agent did kill Seb, and the captain wanted the spore would the captain have to kill off another turned player and wait a game day to use it? If so, we might not have the spore in play until Day 8 (host kills Night 6, waits Day 7, sends spore Night 7, Day 8 begins with a turned/unturned passenger).

If there are enough turned players, the captain still might have killed Seb to retrieve the spore, putting it back in play on Day 7 (Night 6). This would eliminate most scenarios of devo receiving the spore.

I have thought about the Agent reveal, and I think I am opposed to the reveal today. The only scenario I'd want a reveal would be if they did not kill Seb with an investigation. I think this would be great information if they had. It would also shed some light on me not being crazy. Otherwise I'd prefer waiting.

[Timbo]

Olings Schtick is getting old.

If Oling is town this is how I would categorize his play... (Highly Opinionated, Often wrong, Never in doubt). Honestly it's like having Don Cherry on CP Mafia

Disagree with him and he votes for you conveniently removing himself from the voting equasion.

Let us look at his pattern.

Night 1 he voted in the activestick lynch

Night 2 After giving Girly the spore voting and campaigning against her, he unvoted and voted on me removing himself from the lynch but was IMO the root cause of Girlies Lynch

Night 3 He voted on the East Coast Flame lynch

Night 4 he was not around to break up the mrkajz, starseed lynch. Typical greasy scum move. Check late last CP mafia game and you will see the same pattern of convenient disappearance.

Night 5 He begins the Devo lynch. Seb is turned and killed

Day 6 Attacks Squiggs (possibly rightly so too.) Squiggs posts his death post leaving no doubt as to who might be the cause of his demise.
After all of the above shenanigans, I say if Squiggs flips town Oling is my #1. Oling has a convenient town aligned epiphany and unvotes Squiggs, then votes for Squiggs?
In the mean time he completely steers conversation from hunting scum to a Government Agent reveal conversation. He finds someone who openly disagrees with him and unvotes Squiggs then votes Timbo to again distance himself from what might be a townie lynch.

HG15 makes points about how the same scum would not vote in sequential town lynches.
and here Oling goes On Townie lynch , Off, On Townie Lynch, Off, On Townie Lynch

Everthing Oling has done has not come out in towns favour.
If he is town he is scums best unwitting helper.
Now I turn my sarcasm up way high here. Unwitting helper hmmm yup that sounds like Oling. He would be my first vote for unwitting helper. How about you?

Frankly looking at his performance in this CP Mafia game I believe Town would be better off without him.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

If the Agent did kill Seb, and the captain wanted the spore would the captain have to kill off another turned player and wait a game day to use it? If so, we might not have the spore in play until Day 8 (host kills Night 6, waits Day 7, sends spore Night 7, Day 8 begins with a turned/unturned passenger).

Let's say it is 3 Host and 1 Turned:

Night 3 - SebC/Someone
Night 4 - Someone/SebC
Night 5 - Spore Carrier

So 8-4 right now. Let's prepare for the worst and say we do kill town today. That's 7-4. If Spore Carrier is town, I feel strongly they should pass the spore to Puxlut. Keep it guaranteed 7-4. If he passes it to Receiver and Receiver turns, it's 6-5 and if we lynch a townie we automatically lose at 5-5 (and the only way to avoid that is for the town to be perfect and all 6 work together). If we trusted Spore Carrier completely we could lynch Receiver, hope to get rid of the Spore and Scum. But that almost forces us to put all our trust in someone who we know had a 50/50 chance of being turned and could be straight up lying.

If we kill a scum, there's some leeway. 8-3 would allow a judgement call for Spore Carrier to do what they feel is best.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Day 6 Attacks Squiggs (possibly rightly so too.) Squiggs posts his death post leaving no doubt as to who might be the cause of his demise.

Was there any doubt ever? I've been going for him for days. SebC revealing turned, oh who I had also been saying should be checked for days.

Let's see you're track record. On what day exactly did you host scum? Yeah, that's what I thought. Nobody's track record is good. Period.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Was there any doubt ever? I've been going for him for days. SebC revealing turned, oh who I had also been saying should be checked for days.

Let's see you're track record. On what day exactly did you lynch scum? Yeah, that's what I thought. Nobody's track record is good. Period.

Fixed

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Was there any doubt ever? I've been going for him for days. SebC revealing turned, oh who I had also been saying should be checked for days.

Let's see you're track record. On what day exactly did you host scum? Yeah, that's what I thought. Nobody's track record is good. Period.

Well if I were you, and I'm not I would make a 500+ word diatribe on your host scum typo.

And if I take your correction "On what day exactly did you lynch scum? I will say I almost did so on Day 4 mrkajz44 a most pivotal day where you were conveniently absent.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Night 1 he voted in the activestick lynch

Every single non-confirmed townie except for Dissentowner voted for a confirmed townie that lynch. Period. Anyone using that lynch as reason for anything should jump high on everyone's suspicion list.

Night 2 After giving Girly the spore voting and campaigning against her, he unvoted and voted on me removing himself from the lynch but was IMO the root cause of Girlies Lynch

I took the towns second choice, based on the vote, and gave her the spore. I had no information except that I was wrong about ActiveStick so maybe the other half of the town was right. Trying to blame me for giving the spore when I had no choice, I think is way too convenient.

Night 3 He voted on the East Coast Flame lynch

I called him inconspicuous earlier, voted for him to see what he would do. I didn't like him casting doubt on our confirmed townies. I was wrong. My bad.

Night 4 he was not around to break up the mrkajz, starseed lynch. Typical greasy scum move. Check late last CP mafia game and you will see the same pattern of convenient disappearance.

Anybody else could have unvoted to break the tie. Anyone. Easy scapegoat, but no critical thinking in that one and there's no evidence either are host.

Night 5 He begins the Devo lynch. Seb is turned and killed

I did, I also believe I saved Starseed that day as well. We'll see how wrong I was when Starseed is revealed.

Your argument relies heavily on what's transpired today, a day in which you have been throwing crap at the wall and seeing what sticks (in my opinion). The day after SebC was revealed to be turned and I was pushing hard to have him checked is the day you decide to go after me? It could be a ploy, maybe I'm Host and we killed SebC to give me credit. Hopefully the Government Agent doesn't out me...Another reason you don't want the reveal. You want to leave as much doubt in the town as possible. Another confirmed townie hurts your cause.

[Timbo]

Ha, me leave doubt in the town? It's you that wants to remove all doubt for the scum!
If the Government Agent wishes to reveal so be it. I think it's not the right move at this time. After tonight I think the GA will more take into consideration revealing if they have any inkling to. Maybe not.

"We'll see how wrong I was when Starseed is revealed." Why is starseed in trouble of getting lynched? You talk as if you have proof of alignment. Only host scum have that information.

If you are talking about end game then yes, we will see all, oh great swami Oling.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Timbo, I'm on your host list. Why not vote for me instead?

I trust Mrkajz44 is town. More importantly, I can pretty much guarantee he didn't get the spore last night. No way are they going with Houdini after he's already used up his 9 lives.

Maybe there's a possibility I got the spore. I don't know, better odds than Mrkajz44 at least.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Timbo, I'm on your host list. Why not vote for me instead?

I trust Mrkajz44 is town. More importantly, I can pretty much guarantee he didn't get the spore last night. No way are they going with Houdini after he's already used up his 9 lives.

Maybe there's a possibility I got the spore. I don't know, better odds than Mrkajz44 at least.

Strange you have made a scum list yet you only voted for one. I wonder why is that.
If I had multiple votes I just might send one your way. For now I stick with my mrkajz44 vote.

Ha poking the bear is fun! Most fun I've had since this game began. Thanks Oling.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Mrkajz44 is a cop out vote. He's going to reveal town, and it's going to be "aw shucks, he really was just lucky getting saved." Wont make you a target compared to others who have been more vocal against him and he has been more vocal against.

Voting me, well at least I can reveal town and the Government Agent can listen to my advice to check you knowing it's coming from town. Then, with you dead tomorrow, I would suggest that the town lynch Squiggs96 and with a host reveal, I would suggest going for Peanut next.

You don't want my reveal. It's bad for you. Same scenario last game when we couldn't actually kill people at night to show they were town but had to keep just enough suspicion on them so people didn't listen.

(Of course ideally neither me or mrkajz44 die. )

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Let's say it is 3 Host and 1 Turned:

Night 3 - SebC/Someone
Night 4 - Someone/SebC
Night 5 - Spore Carrier

So 8-4 right now. Let's prepare for the worst and say we do kill town today. That's 7-4. If Spore Carrier is town, I feel strongly they should pass the spore to Puxlut. Keep it guaranteed 7-4. If he passes it to Receiver and Receiver turns, it's 6-5 and if we lynch a townie we automatically lose at 5-5 (and the only way to avoid that is for the town to be perfect and all 6 work together). If we trusted Spore Carrier completely we could lynch Receiver, hope to get rid of the Spore and Scum. But that almost forces us to put all our trust in someone who we know had a 50/50 chance of being turned and could be straight up lying.

If we kill a scum, there's some leeway. 8-3 would allow a judgement call for Spore Carrier to do what they feel is best.

If you assume day 6 ends 7-4 and whoever gets the spore doesn't flip, I think they should send it to their top spore candidate or the second place person, not pux. My reasoning is that I think it gives us the best chance of winning.

If you send it to pux at morning 7 its guaranteed 7-4, someone else it'll be either 7-4/6-5. However, if you lynch the spore carrier at the end of day 7 your worst case scenario is 6-4 either way. The difference is that if someone else had it, the spore doesn't travel again before day 8. (unless the captain kills a turned, which helps us).

So if pux gets it tonight morning of day 8 it could be 6-5 and we're at lynch or lose. If someone else gets it our worst case is 6-4, which would require a mislynch and a 50/50 turned for us to lose, which at least improves our odds of getting a day 9 and another chance to lynch a host.

Our group lynching of host has been terrible, I'd be willing to put that into the hands of one person who has received the spore (presumably from a turned and/or host) so is likely town. Also, the agent can check them the next night to help confirm. The other benefit is we keep pux as a confirmed townie, which helps with hunting scum from a numbers point of view.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Mrkajz44 is a cop out vote. He's going to reveal town, and it's going to be "aw shucks, he really was just lucky getting saved." Wont make you a target compared to others who have been more vocal against him and he has been more vocal against.

Voting me, well at least I can reveal town and the Government Agent can listen to my advice to check you knowing it's coming from town. Then, with you dead tomorrow, I would suggest that the town lynch Squiggs96 and with a host reveal, I would suggest going for Peanut next.

You don't want my reveal. It's bad for you. Same scenario last game when we couldn't actually kill people at night to show they were town but had to keep just enough suspicion on them so people didn't listen.

(Of course ideally neither me or mrkajz44 die. )

You want the GA to reveal so we have two confirmed town.
Yet you, the great confirmer of the unconfirmed, essentially has a big list of town more-so then anyone else.
mrkajz44
starseed
Dissentowner
Yourself
Puxlut (The only confirmed)

Oling I am not following you over the abyss. You might be town but your track record is so glaringly bad. I agree no one has been right yet. However no one
has been as off as you have been.

So you won't vote for mrkajz, you said you wouldn't vote for starseed and are his saviour, so am I correct in saying your day four absence was purposely done?

The other scenario is that the GA is possibly another turned. But in that case, I guess they would be all over claiming that role. So my thought right now, is if they do claim it, we couldn't 100% trust them, right?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Timbo

You want the GA to reveal so we have two confirmed town.
Yet you, the great confirmer of the unconfirmed, essentially has a big list of town more-so then anyone else.
mrkajz44
starseed
Dissentowner
Yourself
Puxlut (The only confirmed)

Oling I am not following you over the abyss. You might be town but your track record is so glaringly bad. I agree no one has been right yet. However no one
has been as off as you have been.

So you won't vote for mrkajz, you said you wouldn't vote for starseed and are his saviour, so am I correct in saying your day four absence was purposely done?

Starseed isn't on my town list though, so that's wrong. My list, as pointed out, pretty closely resembles GGG. Do you have the same issue with his? Or do you want to avoid that because he has you as town...

You keep bringing up records. THERE IS NO RECORDS. No scum has been revealed. Everyone's records suck or is unknown. At least I can say I was right about SebC.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Timbo

So you won't vote for mrkajz, you said you wouldn't vote for starseed and are his saviour, so am I correct in saying your day four absence was purposely done?

It was not purposely done. But yes, I would be extremely reluctant in voting for Mrkajz44 or Starseed. You will also note that I said, fearing for 5 scum, that I think town almost has to vote with how Puxlut decides. (One of my arguments for the Government Agent...)

With both Starseed and Mrkajz44 so close to the lynch several times, if they are town they certainly didn't get the spore. Do you agree with that at least?

If we don't hit host, we need to hit the turned or the spore carrier. I do not believe Starseed and Mrkajz44 received the spore. I believe Mrkajz44 is town. I'm less confident about Starseed, but he's not one of my top 5 or 6 at this point, so why go with him?

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Starseed isn't on my town list though, so that's wrong. My list, as pointed out, pretty closely resembles GGG. Do you have the same issue with his? Or do you want to avoid that because he has you as town...

You keep bringing up records. THERE IS NO RECORDS. No scum has been revealed. Everyone's records suck or is unknown. At least I can say I was right about SebC.

I'm on topic with you not GGG.

We'll see how wrong I was when Starseed is revealed."
If what you are saying is true then I took this out of context. Apologies

Both HG15 and I were also right about suspecting SebC you even quoted this point earlier.

As for records yes there are records every thing we post on here is "on the record" so therefore there are records.