CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Step up? I could reply with a "Come at me bro!" but I think I'm above that. I'm sorry if I've gotten under your skin (spore joke). I will just keep playing like I have.

I meant it in regards to activity/scum hunting. Not like a dance off or anything.

[SebC]

Mazrim has confirmed that the perma-stop is a real possibility (though not an outright win), so I guess that's something.

[devo22]

I want to thank Mazrim for again making me suspicious of everybody and everything. It's amazing what that game can do to you

I have suspicions of a few guys, but the one who still sticks out to me is mrkajz44 ... and that's where my vote goes for now. I agree with East Coast Flame here in regards to mrkajz44 and his drive by posts ... when you post like that, it looks like you're active, but you don't actually add a lot to the discussion. He was one of those who were adamant with moving the vote off Girly on day 2, which makes sense if he's a host: saving Girly would have kept the spore alive, but the lynch cost them a day of possibly turning passengers.

vote mrkajz44

I never had mrkzatchwpfh on my radar. He's not really in my top 3. But I could be wrong. If majority votes that way, so be it.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

I never had mrkzatchwpfh on my radar. He's not really in my top 3. But I could be wrong. If majority votes that way, so be it.

there's obviously a good chance that I'm wrong, too. Maybe it's just how he plays the game, but he reminds of the way I used to play when I was Barrow mafia trying to hide among townsfolk.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

If I was going strictly for 'Captain' I think my vote would come down to East Coast Flame or Dissentowner as they've been the most inconspicuous.

I feel like the most 'out there' East Coast Flame has been was voting early for GirlySports but that was after Sebc's vote and unvote, and my vote, so even as an early voter he wouldn't get as much attention. Other than that, I can't really recall what he's done (of course it's early still).

I agree with this post. A perma-stop of the spore would give us an unassailable advantage in the game, in my opinion. If we have a chance to get that by killing the captain today (when he has the spore) then I think we should try for the hail mary pass, even if you think someone else is slightly more likely to be scum. I think it's interesting Timbo tried to deflect you from this plan almost immediately. I wonder if one of ECF/dissentowner is the captain and Timbo is scum trying to protect the captain when he has the spore.

I also believe dissentowner has had a big change in posting style this game, he's been much more inconspicuous for an experienced player. That is likely how he would react to being named captain, especially if (as seems likely) there are currently no turned players available to be sacrificed.

Voteissentowner

[bizaro86]

Try vote again.

Vote: Dissentowner

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I think it's interesting Timbo tried to deflect you from this plan almost immediately. I wonder if one of ECF/dissentowner is the captain and Timbo is scum trying to protect the captain when he has the spore.

I also believe dissentowner has had a big change in posting style this game, he's been much more inconspicuous for an experienced player. That is likely how he would react to being named captain, especially if (as seems likely) there are currently no turned players available to be sacrificed.

Voteissentowner

You say "I think" but really you don't.
I have been pointing out dissentowner all game
Then you go and vote for my prime suspect and you think I am protecting him?

You either are not reading all of the posts and are clueless. Or you are just trying to hide by voting in a possible lynch.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Timbo

You say "I think" but really you don't.
I have been pointing out dissentowner all game
Then you go and vote for my prime suspect and you think I am protecting him?

You either are not reading all of the posts and are clueless. Or you are just trying to hide by voting in a possible lynch.

I agree that you have been pointing dissentowner, (and have voted him). However, once oling mentioned a plan that would involve switching his vote (from you!) to dissentowner, you posted an immediate objection.

Now, its possible you're a townie who thinks that's a bad idea, but it's also possible you've been voting/talking about dissentowner to distance yourself and him, and are trying to dissuade oling/others from voting dissentowner in a way that would be hard to trace back to you, since if he flips scum you can point to your votes for him as proof you were on to him.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Timbo

You say "I think" but really you don't.
I have been pointing out dissentowner all game
Then you go and vote for my prime suspect and you think I am protecting him?

You either are not reading all of the posts and are clueless. Or you are just trying to hide by voting in a possible lynch.

Also, this post is interesting because it seems like Timbo has returned to his more natural/aggressive posting style (the one that got him shot on day 1 previously). I wonder if I hit a nerve here.

[mrkajz44]

I tried to get the username mrkzatchwpfh, but it was taken unfortunately, so I had to go with mrkajz44

As for my "drive-by posts", I am quite busy at work and therefore do find it hard to find time through-out the day to post. I tend to find a lull in the day and try to make bigger posts, as I cannot check in constantly. I can see how that would be seen as "drive-by" as the conversation has usually moved on once I get a chance to check back, but that's just the nature of how my work is right now.

The more I think about it, the more I see HG as being Oling 2.0 this game. As stated before, he has a ton of posts and has a great deal of influence in where the conversation is going. It addition, I feel he's getting quite aggressive, so I wonder if a few of us are onto something:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I'll STFU when other people (including you) step up. Deal?

His reply to me when I said HG might have been the beginning of the end for Girly was simply "I didn't like her reaction". I am still curious as to why HG ignored the logic of other posters, and seemed to be a bit headstrong about changing opinions. I also feel his "owning" of getting Girly lynched is a bit of a "I'm running the show, try to stop me" sort of thing:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

That's correct, I didn't think her reaction was consistent with someone who wasn't infected.

For the record I don't have to be the driver, but in this game I feel like there are too many passengers (activity wise) so I take it upon myself to try and push the conversation hoping people get involved.

I was wrong with my reading of Girly, but that isn't going to stop me from continuing to look for hosts. If being active and trying to push people to actively look for hosts gets me lynched then so be it.

Looking at the votes, he was both in on lyching Active and Girly, and in my opinion, quite central to both their lynching. I think the hosts would be okay with a stronger personalty such as HG get in on both votes, and even steering people in that direction. Afterwards its easy to claim "well, a host wouldn't be on both lynches of townpeople". It's a good decoy and HG's style plays right into it.

Vote: Hockeyguy15

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I agree that you have been pointing dissentowner, (and have voted him). However, once oling mentioned a plan that would involve switching his vote (from you!) to dissentowner, you posted an immediate objection.

Now, its possible you're a townie who thinks that's a bad idea, but it's also possible you've been voting/talking about dissentowner to distance yourself and him, and are trying to dissuade oling/others from voting dissentowner in a way that would be hard to trace back to you, since if he flips scum you can point to your votes for him as proof you were on to him.

This is what I said"This day we should focus on hunting hosts!
Any one of the three would be a major success at the end of this day!"

Where is the objection? You are making hollow arguments.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Timbo

This is what I said"This day we should focus on hunting hosts!
Any one of the three would be a major success at the end of this day!"

Where is the objection? You are making hollow arguments.

I don't disagree with you about hunting hosts, but I do think if we could get the captain and kill the spore that would be a huge advantage. Therefore, if someone thinks they have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum but a 1/4 chance of hitting the captain, I would say they should vote for the potential captain as the reward is so much bigger.

Anyway, I've voted dissentowner because his behaviour is inconsistent with his behaviour in past games and because it is consistent with how I would expect to play if he was the captain. If it turned out that he wasn't the captain but was host and we voted him out, I'd obviously still be happy.

[Oling_Roachinen]

I'll always be suspicious of Hockeyguy15 because I know how well he played as scum last time, but there's post like this that make me believe he's town:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

If anyone gets the spore tonight that means Oling was lying about giving Girly the spore, as that means it was passed last night and whoever it was passed to was not turned. In that case the spore should be passed back to Oling rather than wasting it on Girly.

If Oling was telling the truth the earliest we will hear about the spore if a person was not infected by it will be night 4.

He's absolutely right about this logic. If anyone is asked to pass the spore tonight (i.e. received the spore today) they should pass it to me as it would mean I was lying. Now of course I know no will have received the spore and so do the host, so I don't know if they would have really been considering what the town should do because they know it's not coming up.

A townie, on the other hand, should still be skeptical of my claim and should be planning what to do if the spore was revealed tonight. So I think because Hockeyguy15's was still coming up with contingencies if I was lying make me believe he is town.

[dissentowner]

Go ahead and vote me out, when I flip town the spotlight will go on Timbo and Hockeyguy15. I have spent some time re-reading posts. The other guy on my radar is GGG, something is definitely wrong with the way he is posting this game. Hockeyguy15 has been steering the ship and I think he is scum but there is a small chance I am wrong. Timbo on the other hand is definitely scum, I have zero doubt. So on that note.

Unvote
Vote:Timbo

Go ahead and kill me, if it gets the passengers on the right track and leads to some scum kills and the passengers survive I still win. Have at it.

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by SebC

Mazrim has confirmed that the perma-stop is a real possibility (though not an outright win), so I guess that's something.

I actually made an error here, and I apologize for this. This possibility was already brought up to me earlier, and I had told the scum players that after waiting a day, the spore would be given randomly to another player, not permanently lost.

I did this because it removes the key mechanic of the game due to randomness not being in the scum's favour. I forgot I had already said this when SebC messaged me about it, and instead of confirming my setup document before responding I just wrote my response off the top of my head.

My apologizes for any confusion, and hopefully this post clears everything up moving forward.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Well Sebc wouldn't have pm'd if he was scum and already told. Going to take this as Sebc being town, until we lose the spore at least.

[Lego Man]

Puxlut: Anomaly, town member

SebC: Agree with XXX, coming out with the "we might end this today" post... too risky (and random/out of left field) to be coming from scum

Me: Obviously I'm a town member

Oling_Roachinen: I'm confident enough in Oling being town, especially after the whole GirlySports episode in Day 2.

GGG- post 504 weary of SebC posting style, and aims to keep the focus on hunting aliens and not spores during the day... which I think is the essential and pure town strategy.

bizaro86: In my mind, post 567 went a LONG way to convincing me he's a town member. I especially value this part, and wished we listened...

I think the best course of action may be the following:
-Assume girly hasn't turned, so lynch someone else, my suggestion is Timbo.
-Then, have the government agent investigate girly. That way if she has turned, she dies anyway, so no downside to assuming otherwise and lynching someone else.
-Have girly send the spore back to oling. That way, if oling is a host we get the benefit of nobody getting turned that night.
This plan has at least some benefit under all the scenarios that are plausible, except possibly girly being host, which I think is the least likely scenario.
I think this is what we should do. Timbo has changed his posting style, and his vote for activestick was not well supported, it felt more like a pile-on from scum to make sure a townie got lynched.
Vote:Timbo

devo22: Also having trouble finding thoughts on devo, which makes me suspicous he is laying low with a decent post count.

Peanut: For some reason I can't even formulate comments on Peanuts posts. There is content, but i suppose it's usually just repeating other peoples ideas and so I never have anything to write down. Idono.

mrkajz44: post 663, he basically admits that he'd be okay voting either Girly or Timbo, but other than that... i agree with his posted thoughts in post 857 which kind of forces me to see him as town.

East Coast Flame:
Post 563
A lot to digest here.
The only problem with the letting the agent go after Girly tonight is if she is scum - she would survive and then be able to say she wasn't turned. Obviously we can't have the agent reveal themselves this early, so what then?
I don't see any way we can't lynch Girly today. Plus the added benefit of stopping the spread for a day.
Vote: GirlySports

Something about this post irks me, but it's most likely nothing.

dissentowner: used tox clause, which i'd wager wouldn't be a scum thing to say... also, the last post (post 975) while I don't entirely agree with really sounds like town.

Hockeyguy15 - looking back on Day 2, I actually disagree with most of what HG was going on about, and actually rereading all his posts from Day2 is a bit maddening. I'm a bit annoyed of HG, but I feel as though that's a town characteristic. Every time I open this thread I flip flop on HG allegiance, but until he gets proven scum... I'll always lean 60/40 for him being town.

Also, I don't think scum would risk with such an absolute and arrogant stance... post 642... it's just asking for trouble - which he's getting now.
I disagree.
I think Girly is just a turned vanilla passenger, I'm 100% sure of it. Had she said right away she was not turned I would agree that we let the agent handle it since we wouldn't know if she was lying or not. Since she is turned she is now working with the hosts and for all intents and purposes she is against us.
She is a threat to us winning, and she is an extra vote that can sway a lynch the way the hosts want. She is the sure thing in my mind, more so than anyone's arguments for a host.

Timbo: When reading Timbos posts, I try not to focus on the content heavily - but rather the direction and tone of his posts. Sometime during Day2, Timbo started sending out town vibes for me.

Party Elephant - mentions a scum plan in post 548... a scum bluff? Then... post 768:
vote: hockeyguy15
This vote has me questioning the direction of the group as a whole. I think we've been manipulated too easily into this very specific strategy of voting on a potential spore holder that hinges entirely on taking one poster at his word. I've already laid out how us lynching girly and investigating oling could have us come up empty handed while also losing track of the spore, as if we're even sure where it was in the first place. With the way hockeyguy is forcing the vote on girly, I have to think he's steering he group in the wrong direction.

I think Party took this opportunity to plant the seed of doubt on HG, knowing neither HG and Girly are scum, while keeping his hands clean during the lynch.

squiggs96: In my mind squiggs has been laying REALLY low and targeting low
posters - which is about the easiest vote to make. Fairly easy to defend, but your not stepping on anyones toes. I also feel the language in squiggs posts.. it's almost as if he's going out of his way not to explain things. I can't put my finger on it... but I think it's something. Also, had the blameless second last vote (or tried to bait someone into lynching) which is concerning.

In conclusion, I believe the three scum are:
PartyElephant
devo22
either Peanut or squiggs

Vote: PartyElephant

[SebC]

I feel a bit dirty now. I foresaw a possibility that I might be somehow implied as town by asking the question, but in order to play within the spirit of the game I intentionally worded my inquiry to be as role-neutral as possible (i.e. "town" instead of "we"), such that a confirmation or rejection from Mazrim would not imply a role. I did not predict that the scum would have had different information than the town!

That said, I feel this is good information, so I guess I've generated something positive, even if I screwed up my initial logic.

[SebC]

Does anyone want to come clean about things they've changed from previous CP mafia game(s), and why?