CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[GGG]

How does Seb get a free pass as being a lurker. He has effectively contributed nothing to thus game. Wants to wait until the end of the day before saying anything. We get to the end of the day with girly here and he still says nothing.

He is active lurking, or he is playing both sides to win so if he gets converted we have no way to detect him? He is a mid to high poster with no content. His posts are game theory and prodding others.

He also switched from his day one tactic of being cryptic to being much more open but still saying nothing.

[GirlySports]

I think Seb has been more open discussing the spore situation. The others are silent.

[Hockeyguy15]

I don't think Seb is our best option at this point, plus there are a few people lurking and not really contributing.

[dissentowner]

I still think Girly is the best option for a lynch, the chance to possibly nab a host and get the spore out of play for a whole day is just to good to pass up.

[squiggs96]

To summarize my thoughts on the day:

Oling announces he had received the spore, but stated he was unaffected. He then passed it to Girly. Girly states she is not turned, so she hasn't received confirmation she's received the spore. There has been much discussion on whether she is turned, host, or unaffected town. Girly has offered to vote on where the spore will go if she actually has it. No one seems interested in doing this at all.

Oling and HG have led the charge to lynch Girly, with Oling being the first vote on her. Once we get to being one vote short of the hammer, Oling removes his vote and puts it on Timbo, referencing GGG's post as reason for his change.

I always find it interesting when the votes start coming off. Sometimes it means new logic or information has come up, sometimes it's the scum trying to move votes off of their own. I'm not sure what it is this time. By not hammering, the scum is at risk for having things not go their way (in Smash Bros not hammering me, which led to me getting a gun to kill one scum, leading to the voting out of another scum). If in this case Girly is scum or infected, by leaving her vulnerable she could have been hammered by anyone. It's a risky proposition either way. Now that two votes are needed to hammer, it's much less risky.

I still don't mind voting for Peanut, but I can be swayed to change. I get why people wouldn't follow, as my vote started the ball rolling towards activeStick. The weirdest part for me in that vote was HG15 voted for me, and then switched to voting for the person I was voting for in post #293. Shortly after devo unvotes for Girly, Timbo votes activeStick. active becomes the vote "leader" and the balls rolls until his unfortunate lynch.

[squiggs96]

The reason I'd vote Girly is she seemed too calm on Day 1 when it was possibly her to be lynched. When HG15 asked her if she had anything else to say she replied with:

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Not too much. Ive given my theories and answered questions. Just guessing like everyone else with the lack of information we have.

Now that we are on day 2, and she was 1 vote away from hammer, she still never panicked. Maybe that's her experience from last game coming through, or maybe it's her knowing that she will have the votes moved off of her.

The best argument for not lynching Girly is if you believe she's infected. We don't need to lynch her, as we can let the Agent take care of her. If I have the choice between lynching an infected or lynching someone that has the possibility of being a host, I'd prefer going after someone who could be a host. I'd prefer host hunting rather than spore stopping. If you believe Girly is a host, then obviously voting for her is the way to go.

[mrkajz44]

I'm glad that I checked in this morning and saw that Girly survived the night. As said by a few people, GGGs logic is correct and therefore all the spore / turned talk was just distracting us.

I really encourage people to check out my post on that first vote for Acitve. I'd love to see some people read into it a bit more and provide a little more discussion on it.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthr...42#post5313442
(I hope that link works - I can't remember how to send to a single post?)

My reasoning on Timbo remains the same as that post, and that's why my votes sticks on him for now.

Girly's "deathbed" post sort of just feels like a vanilla townie saying that there is no big reveal coming, and she is willing to help as much as possible. She's not getting aggressive or anything; I guess I'd just figure scum would be defending themselves moreso.

[devo22]

It's interesting how hard you try to deflect from the spore and put focus on the activeStick vote. It's been your main strategy all day and it really rubs me the wrong way. A host trying to save a turned passenger maybe? You are quickly climbing up on my list for potential hosts.

You have written a couple of times about "weak" votes, yet then you vote for Timbo because you "didn't like his vote for activeStick on day 1". I wouldn't consider that a "strong" vote either, to be honest.

Going back to today, I don't get the "the spore / turned talk was just distracting us" argument at all. No, it didn't distract us. The hosts win when scum (hosts + turned) account for half of the players alive, so I don't get how taking care of possibly turned players could ever be called "distracting". I know that we don't have to kill the turned players to win this game, but I'd rather keep the number of scum members to a minimum than let them get more numbers. Not lynching Girly guarantees that the spore is passed and then there's a 50 percent chance of losing another passenger.

Like I've said earlier, if we lynch Girly and investigate Oling, we start day 3 with a maximum of 3 scum members and have a full day to concentrate on the hosts without having the spore to worry about. No idea how that could be "distracting".

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Now that we are on day 2, and she was 1 vote away from hammer, she still never panicked. Maybe that's her experience from last game coming through, or maybe it's her knowing that she will have the votes moved off of her.

I hadn't thought of this, but it's pretty much what happened. Girlysports was one vote from getting hammered, and then a vote gets removed off of her and the whole discussion changes direction.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

How does Seb get a free pass as being a lurker. He has effectively contributed nothing to thus game. Wants to wait until the end of the day before saying anything. We get to the end of the day with girly here and he still says nothing.

He is active lurking, or he is playing both sides to win so if he gets converted we have no way to detect him? He is a mid to high poster with no content. His posts are game theory and prodding others.

He also switched from his day one tactic of being cryptic to being much more open but still saying nothing.

I would say Seb is the person (other than myself) that I'm most sure is town right now. He's smart, and his cryptic posts eventually make sense if you think them through. Also, they'd be the worst scum strategy in the world, since they're drawing negative attention to himself without accomplishing much in the way of distraction or voting off townies. I don't especially agree with his strategy, but I can't see him using it if he was scum, which logically means he's a townie.

[mrkajz44]

I'm not overly surprised Devo wants to avoid us talking about the first vote, as Devo is partially implicated on that one (though not as much as Timbo in my opinion). The reason I say the spore is distracting us is because it is. Re-read the argument made by GGG, the logic is sound.

If you think Girly is host - vote her out and get rid of scum
If you think Girly is turned - vote other and the GA takes care of Girly
If you think Girly is town - vote other to avoid lynching a townie

I do see what your are saying about lynching Girly and investigating Oling. However, to me, it doesn't make sense for Oling to out himself as passing the spore if he was in fact turned. It makes way more sense for him to pass off the spore and not say anything. Why draw that attention to himself? Even a false claim doesn't make sense.

The spore is just distracting our focus. Girly being turned or unturned does not matter in anyone's decision for the lynch today. Timbo giving no real reason to vote for Active and we know that Active was town is the most compelling evidence I've seen to date. Timbo's vote was number four and, to me, was the start of the snowball to Active's lynch. Therefore, my vote is there. I encourage others to take a look at my logic and give some opinions on it. More discussion is better.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I'm not overly surprised Devo wants to avoid us talking about the first vote, as Devo is partially implicated on that one (though not as much as Timbo in my opinion).

not at all. I just think that one cardflip gives us very little information at this point as to who is scum. At least 5 passengers voted for activeStick, but I actually expect that number to be higher. I'd be surprised if more than one host voted for activeStick, just because of what you are doing right now. I'd actually expect the hosts to try to stay out of the "who helped lynch townies" crosshairs for as long as possible.

As for my vote, I just went with gut feeling (just like I stated at the time). You have every right to call that "weak", but we rarely have anything else to go by on day 1.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Re-read the argument made by GGG, the logic is sound.

I have. I just disagree about the importance of the spore, that is all. Getting the spore out for one day helps town a lot in my opinion and I don't understand why that point is always ignored when you list our options.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

However, to me, it doesn't make sense for Oling to out himself as passing the spore if he was in fact turned.

I agree. But if Girly is lynched, then there's nobody else to investigate than Oling, so he'd investigate him just to be sure.

[mrkajz44]

Okay - I guess we will just agree to disagree on the importance of the spore (given the current state of the game). I guess that's really the divide right now for most, and arguing back and forth, one on one, won't progress anything.

And yes, I realize that the first vote is very little information, but it's the most trustworthy information to date, and that's why I am focusing on it.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by GGG

How does Seb get a free pass as being a lurker. He has effectively contributed nothing to thus game. Wants to wait until the end of the day before saying anything. We get to the end of the day with girly here and he still says nothing.

Game day, not real-time day. Now the question is: Did you really think I meant real-time day, or are you twisting my words to fit a pre-conceived agenda?

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I hadn't thought of this, but it's pretty much what happened. Girlysports was one vote from getting hammered, and then a vote gets removed off of her and the whole discussion changes direction.

The discussion hasnt changed direction at all. Im still two votes above five and we're still talking about the spore.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by devo22

It's interesting how hard you try to deflect from the spore and put focus on the activeStick vote. It's been your main strategy all day and it really rubs me the wrong way. A host trying to save a turned passenger maybe? You are quickly climbing up on my list for potential hosts.

You have written a couple of times about "weak" votes, yet then you vote for Timbo because you "didn't like his vote for activeStick on day 1". I wouldn't consider that a "strong" vote either, to be honest.

Going back to today, I don't get the "the spore / turned talk was just distracting us" argument at all. No, it didn't distract us. The hosts win when scum (hosts + turned) account for half of the players alive, so I don't get how taking care of possibly turned players could ever be called "distracting". I know that we don't have to kill the turned players to win this game, but I'd rather keep the number of scum members to a minimum than let them get more numbers. Not lynching Girly guarantees that the spore is passed and then there's a 50 percent chance of losing another passenger.

Like I've said earlier, if we lynch Girly and investigate Oling, we start day 3 with a maximum of 3 scum members and have a full day to concentrate on the hosts without having the spore to worry about. No idea how that could be "distracting".

You would have no idea where the spore is or how it has traveled so far

If I am alive, I could tell you

a) if I got the spore from Oling on Night 2
b) I would have sent the spore where the town wanted it to be sent.

If I'm dead I can't tell you anything. You start Day 3 with no information.

Do you think we have won two coin flips? Are you willing to work with me?

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

If you think Girly is host - vote her out and get rid of scum
If you think Girly is turned - vote other and the GA takes care of Girly
If you think Girly is town - vote other to avoid lynching a townie

I do see what your are saying about lynching Girly and investigating Oling. However, to me, it doesn't make sense for Oling to out himself as passing the spore if he was in fact turned. It makes way more sense for him to pass off the spore and not say anything. Why draw that attention to himself? Even a false claim doesn't make sense.

The spore is just distracting our focus. Girly being turned or unturned does not matter in anyone's decision for the lynch today. Timbo giving no real reason to vote for Active and we know that Active was town is the most compelling evidence I've seen to date. Timbo's vote was number four and, to me, was the start of the snowball to Active's lynch. Therefore, my vote is there. I encourage others to take a look at my logic and give some opinions on it. More discussion is better.

I don't get the reasoning that we should just let the government agent take care of Girly. If she survives the day she passes on the spore and there's a 50/50 chance the scum add one to their numbers tomorrow.

Considering we don't really have anything else to go on other than gut feelings, I don't think there is a better option than lynching Girly.

Also, I am still confused by Oling taking the vote off. I think he needs some more explanation for that one.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by SebC

Game day, not real-time day. Now the question is: Did you really think I meant real-time day, or are you twisting my words to fit a pre-conceived agenda?

Girly getting hammered would have ended the game day. You asked for Girlys death post. The game day could have ended yesterday very easily with you having said nothing.

You seem to be content providing zero assistance to the town and tossing a vote in the end. Be it because you are scum, playing both sides because if you are converted you want to remain hidden, or just playing a bizar strategy.

I want more contribution from you. You asked girly for a list what is your reaction to the list. What do you currently think about girly.

[Mazrim]

Vote Count

With 16 alive, it takes 9 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 6 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn't Voted (2): Peanut, SebC

Voted:
GirlySports (7): East Coast Flame, dissentowner, Timbo, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, devo22, Lego Man
Timbo (3): GGG, mrkajz44, Oling_Roachinen
Hockeyguy15 (2): Puxlut, Party Elephant
Peanut (1): squiggs96
East Coast Flame (1): GirlySports

The deadline is Monday, June 1st at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[squiggs96]

I'm interested to see who pulls a vote off when the total gets back to 8 or who lays the hammer.

Unvote

Vote GirlySports