CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by GGG

As for suspects right now I have Oling and HG as town. (I had them here last game)

For lurkers I liked Legos summary, I need more from peanut.

I don't like Seb (mostly style though) and think Timbo was subtly trying to move discussion off him and on to lurkers.

On reread I'm less certain girly is turned and won't vote to lynch her.

So for now I'm going with Timbo

vote timbo

Again I ask you at what point may I play the game that is not steering?
Just because there is a few votes against me I cant theorize or make observations.
You are seeing things that are not there. But that's okay.
I'm at the pub filling up on loudmouth soup so things may get interesting

[Hockeyguy15]

I really can't see how anyone thinks Girly was not infected by the spore. As soon as Oling says he passed her the spore her behaviour was not consistent with the way a passenger would act. Instead of saying she is not turned, she has to think about it. When I ask what there was to think about, she either had a PM from Mazrim or she didn't she came up with this.

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Just had to think about it. If I felt that Oling has been turned or is lying, I could have thought of a way to expose that.

But it was short-lived so you have all the information now.

If you're not turned what is there to think about? You don't have a PM saying you're turned, and therefore no way to prove/disprove Olings claim until night time. She simply paniced and thought she needed some grand plan rather than saying "if he passed me the spore I'm not infected." And then the rest of us would have to decide if we believed it or not.

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

In this plan if Oling (host) gave the spore and it turned Player A then no would out Oling's story. Then he says he gave it to me then i get lynched i cant confirm it either.

Nobody will know and the spore is back in his hands.

The perfect crime.

There has been a lot of spore discussion and this post really makes a lot of sense to me. I asked Oling immediately after his reveal how we know that he's not lying? We just have to trust his word, but the scenario above actually is close to the perfect crime - but the big risk would be that Oling is drawing a lot of attention to himself.

I actually started this post thinking I would vote Oling and have now reasoned myself out of it. Gah.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

In this plan if Oling (host) gave the spore and it turned Player A then no would out Oling's story. Then he says he gave it to me then i get lynched i cant confirm it either.

Nobody will know and the spore is back in his hands.

The perfect crime.

GirlySports, if I gave the Spore to Player A, then how would the spore come back to my hands if you're lynched....?

[Peanut]

I also think there has been a noticeable change in Girly's posting frequency & style. Is this because she's turned? Or is it because she's really town and is now on the defense because Oling's spore reveal is bringing her lynch attention (whether or not she was actually recipient of the spore dependent on Oling's honesty). Or is it because she's scum and is now on the defense because Oling's spore reveal is bringing her lynch attention? Double Gah.

[dissentowner]

I see zero logic in not voting for GirlySports

Vote:GirlySports

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

GirlySports, if I gave the Spore to Player A, then how would the spore come back to my hands if you're lynched....?

Because Player A has turned in that scenario, and if you are host, you and Player A would work together to direct the spore. Or that's how I understand it.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Peanut

Because Player A has turned in that scenario, and if you are host, you and Player A would work together to direct the spore. Or that's how I understand it.

In this scenario, that you and GirlySports have both called the 'perfect crime,' I would still have an almost 50% chance of being exposed if I were lying. Right?

If we lynch GirlySports there would be no spore tonight. At least I know that.

But if someone were to claim on Day 4 they had the spore (i.e. on Night 2 they were sent it and on Night 3 they had to send it to someone else) I would be exposed.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I see zero logic in not voting for GirlySports

Vote:GirlySports

Can you explain the logic you are using to vote for Girlysports?

[Timbo]

I'm sticking with stopping the spore. Has she turned, I'm not sure. I still am at full belief we have to stop the spore when we can. Especially early in the game.
Vote:GirlySports

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Again I ask you at what point may I play the game that is not steering?
Just because there is a few votes against me I cant theorize or make observations.
You are seeing things that are not there. But that's okay.
I'm at the pub filling up on loudmouth soup so things may get interesting

If you had said I don't like peanut lurking and I'm going to vote for her I would have found nothing suspicious. Instead you said how about those lurkers when people were pursuing you. You appear to be trying to move discussion from you while also not wanting to accuse anyone. I don't like it.

[Hockeyguy15]

GGG maybe I missed it, can you explain what exactly it is that makes you think Girly is still town and not turned?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Timbo

I'm sticking with stopping the spore. Has she turned, I'm not sure. I still am at full belief we have to stop the spore when we can. Especially early in the game.
Vote:GirlySports

This doesn't stop the spore. Persuiming the agent is Girlysports lynching her and letting the agent take care of her end in identical game states. This is bad strategy. Aside from hosts getting to pick the next target rather than girly.

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

In this scenario, that you and GirlySports have both called the 'perfect crime,' I would still have an almost 50% chance of being exposed if I were lying. Right?

If we lynch GirlySports there would be no spore tonight. At least I know that.

But if someone were to claim on Day 4 they had the spore (i.e. on Night 2 they were sent it and on Night 3 they had to send it to someone else) I would be exposed.

Exposed by the agent? Or how would you be exposed? Sorry, I don't understand what you mean, but I'm pretty confused so I'm open to all theories.

Also if we lynch Girly and she does have the spore, doesn't she still send the spore? I need to go back and re-read the spore details for the 90th time I think.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

GGG maybe I missed it, can you explain what exactly it is that makes you think Girly is still town and not turned?

I'm about 70/30. I think it's possible she just over thought the game wanting to out oling as turned. I do not believe she is host. I do not believe she is the agent. Therefore the correct play is lynch other, let the agent take care of girly.

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by Peanut

Also if we lynch Girly and she does have the spore, doesn't she still send the spore? I need to go back and re-read the spore details for the 90th time I think.

ok re-read. Spore would go back to Captain the next night, unless the captain killed a turned.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

I'm about 70/30. I think it's possible she just over thought the game wanting to out oling as turned. I do not believe she is host. I do not believe she is the agent. Therefore the correct play is lynch other, let the agent take care of girly.

If Girly is turned, and we lynch someone else. Tomorrow we are down XXX lynch and Girly, possibly another infected. Day 3 we lynch again.

If Girly is turned and we lynch her. We are down Girly, no infected. Day 3 lynch again.

This is almost the exact same, the only way we come ahead in scenario 1 is if we hit a host. If you are so sure you know who a host is why not take the night of no infections and then lynch that sure target day 3?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by GGG

Let's see if I can simplify it.

Lynch Girly
Day 2 Lynch girly 15 alive
Night 2 agent and spore do nothing
Day 3 lynch other 3/15 chance of lynching scum
Day 4 14 alive no knowledge of the spore

Lynch Other
Day 2 lynch other 3/15 chance of scum
Night 2 spore is passed, girly is killed
Day 3 14 alive no knowledge of spore


Does that help. I'm pretty sure I'm right.

Either way we end up with a 3/15 chance of killing scum and the same game state.

[Hockeyguy15]

Anyway no point in debating that anymore. You think leaving the infected for the agent is the right play, I think lynching the infected (this time) is the right play. I doubt either of us will change their mind on that.

[GGG]

The question to ask on whether to lynch girly or not is

Is it more likely that girly is host or a turned agent OR that she is unturned. If scenario one is more likely lynch girly, if scenario 2 is more likely lynch someone else.