[Trade] Glencross to Washington for a 2015 2nd and 2015 3rd round pick (WSH) (Archive) - Page 62 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

CliffFletcher · 02-23-2015, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Five-hole

I don't see a 2nd (Glencross) and a 3rd (Cammy) as make or break for our rebuild, either. It's arguable that Glencross is more helpful to our playoff hopes than a 2nd is to our rebuild (though I'd argue it's close).

Few individual actions make or break a rebuild. It's a bunch of small decisions that represent a strategy and add up to something in the future. Rebuilding teams turn declining assets into appreciating assets. It's pretty much what a rebuild is.

Maybe a 3rd rounder can be used to move up a few spots in the 2nd round and grab someone you like. Or it can be used to take a wild swing at player who is 95 per cent bust / 5 per cent gold. But it's an asset. It has value. UFAs who walk in the summer have no value.

And buying into the notion of sneaking into the playoffs and crossing your fingers is what led this franchise to delay the rebuild 2 or 3 years too late.

Five-hole · 02-23-2015, 04:02 PM

Ok, let's do it again!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hackey

Ya well that list also includes:

Brodie - Homerun
Bouma - Good pick; may eventually be as good as "prime" Glencross (probably better now)
Reinhart - Meh, hasn't done anything at the NHL level
Ferland - Hasn't established an NHL position; still has some upside
Arnold - Longshot for NHL

I think most would agree our drafting has improved in recent years as well.

I wouldn't trade Glencross right now for another team's Reinhart or Arnold. Maybe a Ferland, but .. maybe not. So that's 3 players out of the 15 I listed plus the two you listed that I wouldnt' trade for, for a 18% chance that a pick in the 3rd to 5th round becomes "worth it". In addition to the fact that losing Glencross right now makes us worse. (I know some people don't think so, but I think they're in the magic bean club.)

I do agree our drafting is measurably better. So I'll even give you a 33% chance. I'm still not crazy about making that move.

In sum, I'm firmly against the "get whatever you can get" mindset given how important I think it is to make the playoffs this year and that Glencross helps in achieving that.

Rerun · 02-23-2015, 04:28 PM

I consider getting into the playoffs this year as gravy on the mashed potatoes.

Its nice but if the potatoes are under cooked the meal still sucks.

GioforPM · 02-23-2015, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Five-hole

I don't think they're undervalued at all. They're magic beans. Some grow into giant beanstalks, but most don't.

So the more picks you have, the better your odds are.

CliffFletcher · 02-23-2015, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GioforPM

So the more picks you have, the better your odds are.

Yep. If a 3rd round pick has only a 20 per cent chance of becoming an NHL regular and a 5 per cent chance of becoming a difference-maker, if you have three of them you up those odds to 60 per cent and 15 per cent.

Enoch Root · 02-23-2015, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GioforPM

So the more picks you have, the better your odds are.

Yes, but if you are constantly overpaying to acquire those picks, your still swimming upstream with respect to asset management.

GioforPM · 02-23-2015, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, but if you are constantly overpaying to acquire those picks, your still swimming upstream with respect to asset management.

I don't think a pending UFA who you will not re-sign is an overpayment, because it's a spent asset. I don't view making the playoffs as highly as some, nor do I believe Glencross isthe difference between making or not making the POs. Giving the younger players the experience of a PO runup may be more valuable than making the POs with Glencross, especially if the exit is early.

Harry Lime · 02-23-2015, 05:03 PM

I only looked back a page or two, but was there some speculation that caused Glencross's value to decline to only picks and not prospects in return? Earlier this weekend there was discussion of what we would need to add to land a Connolly or DSP, and now 3rd round pick talk? Something happened to weaken our position, or at least significantly lower the fanbases expectation.

Can someone post an update, or is this just a natural progression of the discussion?

Hackey · 02-23-2015, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Five-hole

Ok, let's do it again!

I wouldn't trade Glencross right now for another team's Reinhart or Arnold. Maybe a Ferland, but .. maybe not. So that's 3 players out of the 15 I listed plus the two you listed that I wouldnt' trade for, for a 18% chance that a pick in the 3rd to 5th round becomes "worth it". In addition to the fact that losing Glencross right now makes us worse. (I know some people don't think so, but I think they're in the magic bean club.)

I do agree our drafting is measurably better. So I'll even give you a 33% chance. I'm still not crazy about making that move.

In sum, I'm firmly against the "get whatever you can get" mindset given how important I think it is to make the playoffs this year and that Glencross helps in achieving that.

Glencross could very well fetch a 2nd so I'd gladly take that. A lot of quality players get drafted in the 2nd round. As for the later rounds I was simply stating that I think they have more value than people give them credit. Playoffs would be nice this year but building a contender is my focus so I'd prefer to get an asset that helps us long term as opposed to keeping Glencross which only benefits us for the rest of this year. Glencross hasn't exactly been lighting it up this year either so I don't think we will miss him and whoever steps in will likely be just as good.

dammage79 · 02-23-2015, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

I only looked back a page or two, but was there some speculation that caused Glencross's value to decline to only picks and not prospects in return? Earlier this weekend there was discussion of what we would need to add to land a Connolly or DSP, and now 3rd round pick talk? Something happened to weaken our position, or at least significantly lower the fanbases expectation.

Can someone post an update, or is this just a natural progression of the discussion?

Progression of the discussion I think. Although Eric Duhatschek did say on the Fan that the Flames wold be very happy to take a 2nd round pick in exchange for Glencross.

Hackey · 02-23-2015, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, but if you are constantly overpaying to acquire those picks, your still swimming upstream with respect to asset management.

Constantly? Have we ever overpaid for a pick? Picks are usually add ons to deals or aquired when trading UFAS. Don't really think this is something we need to be worried about.

Five-hole · 02-23-2015, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hackey

Glencross could very well fetch a 2nd so I'd gladly take that. A lot of quality players get drafted in the 2nd round. As for the later rounds I was simply stating that I think they have more value than people give them credit. Playoffs would be nice this year but building a contender is my focus so I'd prefer to get an asset that helps us long term as opposed to keeping Glencross which only benefits us for the rest of this year. Glencross hasn't exactly been lighting it up this year either so I don't think we will miss him and whoever steps in will likely be just as good.

I agree that 2nd round picks are good assets. I'd be satisfied with a 2nd rounder. I'd be happier if we got more -- ideally, adding something of value to parlay Glencross into a young defenseman with upside. Bonus marks if he can play 10+ NHL minutes a night right now.

Any less than a 2nd though and I don't see the point.

Hackey · 02-23-2015, 05:17 PM

If a 3rd is the most being offered I'll be fine whichever way they go.

RoughRiderRowdy · 02-23-2015, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dammage79

Progression of the discussion I think. Although Eric Duhatschek did say on the Fan that the Flames wold be very happy to take a 2nd round pick in exchange for Glencross.

Thats why DSP for Glenx straightup is absolutely absurd.

Harry Lime · 02-23-2015, 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RoughRiderRowdy

Thats why DSP for Glenx straightup is absolutely absurd.

Luckily DSP for Glenx straight up isn't the only option. Glencross plus a B level prospect is the ballpark though. Anaheim must think that they can re sign him using Bourque money next year.

Glencross plus a C prospect for Connolly would be my vote. I also think that we see a hockey trade involving Calgary on the 2nd. There must be a desire to open up one more forward roster spot for next year.

Bandwagon Surfer · 02-23-2015, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Yep. If a 3rd round pick has only a 20 per cent chance of becoming an NHL regular and a 5 per cent chance of becoming a difference-maker, if you have three of them you up those odds to 60 per cent and 15 per cent.

If my memory serves me correctly you cannot add probabilities like that. Somebody correct me if I am wrong, but I think the math works like this:

You have 3 picks, each with a 20% chance of success, and want to determine the odds that at least one is successful.

A 20% chance of success means a 80% chance of failure.

The chance that all three picks fail is 80% × 80% × 80% = 51.2%

A 51.2% chance of failure means a 48.8% chance of success.

Rerun · 02-23-2015, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

I only looked back a page or two, but was there some speculation that caused Glencross's value to decline to only picks and not prospects in return? Earlier this weekend there was discussion of what we would need to add to land a Connolly or DSP, and now 3rd round pick talk? Something happened to weaken our position, or at least significantly lower the fanbases expectation.

Can someone post an update, or is this just a natural progression of the discussion?

Forgive me HL, but who the hell is DSP?

R

wwkayaker · 02-23-2015, 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Yep. If a 3rd round pick has only a 20 per cent chance of becoming an NHL regular and a 5 per cent chance of becoming a difference-maker, if you have three of them you up those odds to 60 per cent and 15 per cent.

I like your thinking but your math lacks some execution.

KootenayFlamesFan · 02-23-2015, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rerun

Forgive me HL, but who the hell is DSP?

R

Devante Smith-Pelly

Harry Lime · 02-23-2015, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rerun

Forgive me HL, but who the hell is DSP?
R

Devante Smith Pelly. Awesome name, but a pain to write out. He's RW Bouma, to go with our matching set LW. Anaheim being Glencross's preferred landing spot, this would be my preferred return that isn't completely out of reach. Shea Theodore would cost too much to acquire, and Rickard Rackell might make DSP expendable from Anaheim's point of view.

A line of Bouma - Absolutely Anyone - DSP would be a terror for other teams to play against. Best third line ever, until all of their knees and shoulders fall off in five years because of the way they play.