Somebody screwed up, this is common. We screwed up before in the 80s, Ukrainians screwed up in the early 2000 - so I would not put it beyond them to hit the plane thinking it was Russian, since their military seems to be very disorganized now. Rebels obviously could do it, not intentionally though as they do not stand to benefit. The maximum extent of Russian involvment on this could be Russia highlighting the plane on the radar for the rebels (since their Buk only had the launcher with primitive radar, it was not a full system which is 3 vehicles - commad, radar and launcher), which would be a major screw up on their part.
Honestly right now noone knows what really happened there and noone ever will.
I also don't like the fact that its seems like the guilty party has been "appointed" before the investigators ever got to the crash site, and that Obama and Poroshenko keep rambling on about "evidence" that they possess without showing any. So far the only pictures and radar information released come from Russia - and I find it odd that it gets dismissed as "Russia trying to cover up" and its not bigger news.
You see this type of evidence is very, very hard to falsify. What was on Russian radars, was on NATO radars. If they say they saw a Su-25 next to the airplane, and two hours later NATO releases their radar info and there is no Su-25 - they are in deep ####. They also released radar information and sattelite pictures of Ukrainian Buks deployed in the area - if NATO comes up with the same pictures on same day but this stuff is not there, Russia is again in deep ####. But no, Russia actually asked US to release their pictures and radar data, stating that they never detected a launch by either of the parties - only Ukrainian SAM tracking the plane, and that they know that US spy sattelite was directly over the area when this happened. This means Russia is 100% confident in their information.
Again, this is the first solid evidence I see - a cell phone video of a Buk SAM driving somewhere as "evidence" of it being taken across the border back to Russia is ridiculous - it could belong to anyone and be driven anywhere. Phone conversation intercepted does not conclude anything, these things can be doctored by anyone with a laptop, plus its not the same people talking - so it could easily be rebels talking about shooting down a Su-25 and looking for pilots in first half and the second half could be a cut from a different group at a different time finding the rubble of MH17. Again, I am not saying that it has been or that's what happened - but Ukraine has a Secret Service of its own, and if I was running it and some idiots in my military shot down that plane, that's what I would do - come up with a bunch of evidence blaming the other side, no matter how weak, knowing full well that since I am seen as a "the good guy" already noone will look into it too much, and the US will probably back me up and keep their mouth shut even if they know I did it.
United States and NATO just need to release their radar information and sattelite pictures to international investigators, that's it. Russia has just done so.
Of course, you can see that I am biased. But I am used to treating everything with a grain of salt. Russia (USSR) covered up Korean Airlines tragedy, so they cannot be trusted. Ukraine shot down Israeli Boeing before and denied involvement until Israel presented them pieces of plane with shrapnel holes, parts of the missile and radar data - so they cannot be trusted. I do not even speak of separatists. US and NATO cannot be trusted - they have their interests at stake in the region, plus after Iraq and the "evidence" there, with Collin Powel shaking a bottle with salt and calling it evidence of chemicale weapons, any evidence produced by US cannot be taken seriously.
That is why I think we will never trully know what happened. The West will think Russia did, and Russia will think Ukraine did it, and everyone will be right and everyone will be wrong.
EDIT: one point: Air to air missile hit is very easy to tell from a SAM hit, you do not need any expertise. Here is what airplane pieces sort of look like after S-200 hit them (I saw a bunch of practice targets and what happened to them):
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_59GYpEVAu0...00/pattern.JPG
I have not seen air-to-air damage and don't really know how they work, but I venture to say its much smaller and less holes, relying more on the explosive part. So we will know that part soon enough.
EDIT 2: Since this is getting a bit more attention, this is how I think investigation should be handled. Rather than immidiately state "We know the separatists are guilty, and we will not investigate the possibility of Ukrainian military being at fault" (which is what US state department did, hours after the plane crashed), all version should be taken into account, and they all should be checked and ruled out - even the implausible conspiracy ones. This is the only way to prevent conspiracy theories going on and on about it for the next 50 years. Also, the investigation should be done jointly by ISCA, Russia, Ukraine, Malaysia, Netherlands, NATO and the US. Based on what could possibly happen to the plane, the following versions need to be checked - in no particular order of importance. Again, I do not care if they sound crazy or unlikely:
1) Terrorist act. Mohammad al Jihad decided to blow himself up inside the plane while flying over Eastern Ukraine.
2) Malfunction/incident. Bird flew into engine, lighting bolt. Who knows.
3) NATO missile cruiser from the Black Sea (anything currently there that has the range?)
4) Separatist's Buk took it down.
5) Russian Black Sea fleet, in particular its flagship, Moskva - it can hit airplanes 200-250 km away. Was it in range?
6) Ukrainian Buk took it down.
7) Ukrainian S-300 took it down from far away.
8) Russian S-300 or S-400 took it down from around Rostov-on-Don region.
9) Ukrainian Air to Air missile from a military jet.
10) Russian Air to Air missile from a mlitary jet.
That's about all I can think of. If you do not check them all you will have conspiracy nuts all over this for years. Again, I do not believe most of these are even remotely likely, but if it could possibly happen it must be investigated, no matter how unlikely or studpid it sounds.
EDIT 3: Thanks for the gold! In a disappointing update, US State Dept. released a statement, basically saying that since Russia is known to spread misinformation and propaganda, and US is known to be honest, there is no need for US to respond to Russian request and reveal their evidence. It is enough for the world to know that US has the evidence that points at the separatists and Russians, and have trust in US intelligence agencies since they don't lie about things like this.
I cannot believe the person saying it didn't burst out laughing in the middle. They can't seriously believe this ####.
