Estonia is part of the EU and NATO. Putin trying his Ukrainian shtick in Estonia would be suicide.
Yeah, I get what you and others have said, and no, I don't think he's going to invade in the same manner as what just happened. But it is scary nonetheless. He's probing for weakness and has expansion and conquest on the mind. To that effect he's also showing little regard for international law, sovereignty, or even the effects it could have on his own country. Picking up on a few of the things Angela Merkel hinted at, he may have finally lost his nut.
It's imperialism and conquest like we haven't seen in quite some time. For all the things America did under Bush, and going into Iraq did break international law and is a good starting point for comparison, they never annexed a region! This is a whole other level.
Nato chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen calls the Crimea crisis "a wake-up call... for the Euro-Atlantic community. For Nato. And for all those committed to a Europe whole, free and at peace". He is in Washington to discuss Ukraine with US officials.
20:00:
Nato is concerned Russia may move into eastern Ukraine, Nato's Rasmussen says.
I used to work with a Russian girl from Estonia. She was nice and everything, but every once in a while she would go on about how Estonia is "Russian" and blah, blah, blah.... She was very nationalistic.
What would NATO do though? A war with Russia would be a stalemate at best with a lot of suffering.
All they can really do is try to weaken them from the inside through sanctions and supporting their enemies in potential breakaway regions. They have a lot of weak spots, but military strength is not one of them.
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Everything with the Russians is about security of the Motherland. They are extremely paranoid due to history.
If I was pretending to be Putin, then my next move would be to find justification to neutralize the rest of the Ukraine. Since I already have a agreement with Belarus that is basically like a client state agreement, and btw Russia is conducting joint air force exercises with Belarus and holding unity celebrations this weekend, it would give me a protective corridor from the Black Sea through to the Lithuania and Latvian borders.
Now, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all Nato Allies and Putin knows that an attack on them will be responded to harshly.
But I'm willing to be that he knows that Nato's response would be a careful military response with no attacks on Russian soil. So, he can do one of two things
1) Try to take Estonia and bank on a weak Nato response and use that to bleed and then eventually break Nato
2) Put enormous pressure on Estonia to gain concessions in terms of territory .
Putin has always seen the Nato nations on Russia's border as a dire threat. He's trying to eliminate that threat, and possibly fracture NATO.
Well, it is a dire threat when you behave like he does. If he was a sane person though, and actually tired to improve the quality of life for his people instead of just making the top echelon rich, there would be no concern for NATO, would there? I'm actually kind asking that question. I know there is always power to be gained from acting like a dick occasionally, but in the long run, or even in the short run, wouldn't it make more sense to be focused on the economy and making his country better for all, than getting caught up in displays of power and nationalism? Would NATO in his backyard prevent him from inking good trade deals, or making things better in Russia? Or would it really just prevent him from lining his own pockets, solidifying his own political power and future, and prevent him from the illusion of glory of a bigger 'stronger' state, like the USSR he seems to be so fond of.
When your a corrupt leader, a leader that technically shouldn't even be in power (correct me if I'm wrong, but he basically laughed in the face of laws that said he was ineligible to be president again when he ran again last time, and there was talk of election rigging as well) then organizations like NATO that foster open governments and such, are going to seem like a threat.
Don't get me wrong, I don't mean to paint NATO as a shinning beacon of light and 'freedom', anyone who has followed my postings know I attack the west as well. But this is starting to feel like real cold war type shiznit, and there is definitely a right and wrong here right now.
Course in geopolitics, right and wrong has about as much importance as a hill of beans I guess. Still, I often wonder, in this highly tied and nuanced economic world we have right now, why leaders still want to go the old model of pissing everyone off and taking by force, when foten it see,s like you can earn so much more through cooperation.
Again, I think a lot of it has to do with securing ones own political power, rather than the improvement of your country as whole. And, leaders like Putin do seem to be concerned with the somewhat outdated and largely immeasurable image of power on the world stage.
Eh, I'm not explaining it the best, and I'm talking in circles now.
Everything with the Russians is about security of the Motherland. They are extremely paranoid due to history.
If I was pretending to be Putin, then my next move would be to find justification to neutralize the rest of the Ukraine. Since I already have a agreement with Belarus that is basically like a client state agreement, and btw Russia is conducting joint air force exercises with Belarus and holding unity celebrations this weekend, it would give me a protective corridor from the Black Sea through to the Lithuania and Latvian borders.
Now, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all Nato Allies and Putin knows that an attack on them will be responded to harshly.
But I'm willing to be that he knows that Nato's response would be a careful military response with no attacks on Russian soil. So, he can do one of two things
1) Try to take Estonia and bank on a weak Nato response and use that to bleed and then eventually break Nato
2) Put enormous pressure on Estonia to gain concessions in terms of territory .
Putin has always seen the Nato nations on Russia's border as a dire threat. He's trying to eliminate that threat, and possibly fracture NATO.
Its actually a pretty sound plan.
It's actually a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
An intrinsic need to protect and buffer the Motherland due to a history of being invaded, and a history of being invaded due to being aggressive, expansionist and bullish to their neighbours.
Russians have expanded into their neighbours territory for centuries, and probably more than any other country in Europe.
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It's actually a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
An intrinsic need to protect and buffer the Motherland due to a history of being invaded, and a history of being invaded due to being aggressive, expansionist and bullish to their neighbours.
Russians have expanded into their neighbours territory for centuries, and probably more than any other country in Europe.
Oh history can't repeat itself.... But looks like the uk and the us will sit back and appease the little communist ass
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I don't see it happening. Estonia is part of NATO. If Russia sets one boot in Estonia, Article 5 will be invoked and Russia will be at War with all NATO countries. Article 5 states that an attack on one NATO country is an attack on all NATO countries. This was invoked after September 11, 2001.
I'm sure the Russians are poking to see if NATO has any balls anymore. Buildup troops and see what they do. But I don't don't see Russia entering Estonia.
If they do, either we're on for another European war, or NATO is dissolved because it is useless.
Doesn't matter, Ukraine had a treaty in place too and the us and uk just sat back and waved the finger at putin
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Doesn't matter, Ukraine had a treaty in place too and the us and uk just sat back and waved the finger at putin
It does matter. There is a huge difference between a treaty signed in the 90's that nobody cares about and NATO that contains 70% of the worlds defense spending. You can't compare the two.
Oh history can't repeat itself.... But looks like the uk and the us will sit back and appease the little communist ass
Are you a cartoon from the 1950's? Everything you say is "communist this" and "communist that." This is beyond the Pinko Commie vs Capitalism ideology. You seriously sound like Little Timmy, with his green and white horizontal striped shirt, lil' slugger ball cap and soft malleable propaganda-filled brain.
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Are you a cartoon from the 1950's? Everything you say is "communist this" and "communist that." This is beyond the Pinko Commie vs Capitalism ideology. You seriously sound like Little Timmy, with his green and white horizontal striped shirt, lil' slugger ball cap and soft malleable propaganda-filled brain.
It may not longer be capitalist vs communist, but it's the exact same mindset.
It may not longer be capitalist vs communist, but it's the exact same mindset.
The "us vs. them" or "good vs. evil" mindset is the same, but this isn't Great #1 Capitalism Good Team vs. Liberal Soviet Communist Evil Jerks.
There are many valid reasons to be against what's going on, I won't argue that. It's just the whole "he's a stupid communist!" angle makes the situation feel like a weird satire.
I won't be surprised if I find out PIMking is found running around the streets yelling "GO WOLVERINES! THE REDS ARE COMING!"
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The "us vs. them" or "good vs. evil" mindset is the same, but this isn't Great #1 Capitalism Good Team vs. Liberal Soviet Communist Evil Jerks.
There are many valid reasons to be against what's going on, I won't argue that. It's just the whole "he's a stupid communist!" angle makes the situation feel like a weird satire.
I won't be surprised if I find out PIMking is found running around the streets yelling "GO WOLVERINES! THE REDS ARE COMING!"
Hey man, if the Flames and Oilers play each other in new third Jerseys, it's still the Flames vs the Oilers.
I find calling them communists funny, because what does it really matter. They're not, everyone knows they're not, but whatever.
I find calling them communists funny, because what does it really matter. They're not, everyone knows they're not, but whatever.
That's what I'm saying. It doesn't matter, I'm just nitpicking. I find it silly to go back to the cold war era mud slinging. It's time to start a new generation of stereotypes, insults and prejudices!
That's what I'm saying. It doesn't matter, I'm just nitpicking. I find it silly to go back to the cold war era mud slinging. It's time to start a new generation of stereotypes, insults and prejudices!
I've always said that you really need to understand an opponent or enemy not only to beat them, but to reach a level of understanding with them
Back in 1967 when the U.S. was pushing hard for the Soviets to end their missile defense research or risk an escalation of the arms race, Soviet Premier Alexei Kosygin simply stated Defense is moral offense is immoral.
If you look at what Putin is doing you can argue that what he's doing is immoral. From a Russian mind set having a bunch of what they would consider to be hostile nations and nato nations right on their border to be a dire situation. What Putin is doing in his mind probably has some effect in rebuilding the buffer zone that they had with the Warsaw pact where if sh%t went down they wouldn't have to fight a was in their own border. Right now Putin believes that what he is doing is moral.
If they take the rest of the Ukraine and start to threaten the other Nato nations right on the Russian border it will be to the effect that they are feeling threatened and they're going to rebuild a buffer.
Of course there are other factors involved. But with Russians we have to realize that shows of strength are everything, that's been drilled into them from the time they were int he crib.
We're seeing things from a very Westernized perspective. These actions aren't about gaining resources, or real estate, the Russians have plenty of both so that gets rid of the usual justifications for war or annexation.
We can call it the re-construction of the Soviet Empire which had the mission statement of world socialism in our time, but it has nothing to do with that.
From books that I've read when the Soviet Union utterly collapsed, there was a collective oh sh%t movement with the junior government set, and everything since then has been built around strengthening Russia. Over the last few years we've seen a heavy concentration in professionalizing their military and re-arming it. The goal has always been security.
I've always said that you really need to understand an opponent or enemy not only to beat them, but to reach a level of understanding with them
Back in 1967 when the U.S. was pushing hard for the Soviets to end their missile defense research or risk an escalation of the arms race, Soviet Premier Alexei Kosygin simply stated Defense is moral offense is immoral.
If you look at what Putin is doing you can argue that what he's doing is immoral. From a Russian mind set having a bunch of what they would consider to be hostile nations and nato nations right on their border to be a dire situation. What Putin is doing in his mind probably has some effect in rebuilding the buffer zone that they had with the Warsaw pact where if sh%t went down they wouldn't have to fight a was in their own border. Right now Putin believes that what he is doing is moral.
If they take the rest of the Ukraine and start to threaten the other Nato nations right on the Russian border it will be to the effect that they are feeling threatened and they're going to rebuild a buffer.
Of course there are other factors involved. But with Russians we have to realize that shows of strength are everything, that's been drilled into them from the time they were int he crib.
We're seeing things from a very Westernized perspective. These actions aren't about gaining resources, or real estate, the Russians have plenty of both so that gets rid of the usual justifications for war or annexation.
We can call it the re-construction of the Soviet Empire which had the mission statement of world socialism in our time, but it has nothing to do with that.
From books that I've read when the Soviet Union utterly collapsed, there was a collective oh sh%t movement with the junior government set, and everything since then has been built around strengthening Russia. Over the last few years we've seen a heavy concentration in professionalizing their military and re-arming it. The goal has always been security.
Putin is just pushing forward that agenda.
at least that's what i believe is happening.
But I'm not the end all and be all.
I guess I am more cynical than you.
I don't believe that it is about security. Gaining Crimea doesn't make them more secure from external sources (and they are already pretty secure). Unless it really is the start of mass annexation of territory, the relatively small area of Crimea is pretty meaningless as a buffer. Internally, it probably just makes the whole region a little more volatile and creates more ethnic tension.
Personally, I think it's simply about trying to get respect through power and force. Ukrainians tried to turn their backs on Russia/Putin, and now he is trying to show them (and others in the area) who is boss and who holds the power. It is defense in the sense that a Russia which shows weakness will likely collapse internally, but it is not defense from outside forces. The image of being powerful and someone not to be toiled with is ingrained in them.
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