I think they will - the issues here are far greater than trying to sell a few BMWs
Well it's more than that. They were just saying on CBC that Germany gets something like 30% of it's Nat Gas from Russia. Lots of minerals flowing between Russia and all these countries. Things that could grind their already weak economy to a halt and triggering more (or bigger) recessions.
Crimea will end up as a part of Russia or will stay in Ukraine. But either way, the Russian naval bases aren't going anywhere. And Putin didn't invade all of Ukraine, just the most Russian part and not coincidentally, the part that houses one of Russia's most important military installations.
Ukraine might be a little more dysfunctional now and in the near future, but was it very functional 6 months ago? Not really. Ukraine is an economic basket-case and is in need of a huge bailout... and Putin practically guaranteed that Russia will make a sizable "investment" in the Ukrainian economy under the "you break it, you bought it" terms and conditions. If Putin doesn't bail them out after invading them, he (fairly or unfairly) gets 100% of the blame for anything bad that happens in Ukraine for the foreseeable future.
So Putin gets to choose between flushing billions down the Ukrainian toilet/economy or letting it get worse and shouldering all the blame as Russia's next door neighbour goes broke and destabilizes... great choice there Vlad.
Putin's strong arm tactics haven't endeared him to the majority of Ukrainians, so in the end he has made his next door neighbour more anti-Russian than they were before. More anti-Russian and less stable... great work there Vlad.
And what will the West do? Nothing.
Not a single shot will be fired. Not a sortie will be flown. No trade war. Nothing will be done because Putin is absolutely not a threat to the West/NATO. Putin knows that Russia wouldn't stand a chance if he invaded a NATO country, so that's why he picks on not-quite western countries like Georgia and Ukraine.
Now the West/NATO trusts him even less than we did a month ago. So we'll do what we've been doing since the wall fell... we promote democracy and capitalism, and one by one, "Eastern" European countries become more and more western and less and less under Russian influence. East Germany, Poland, the Czechs, Slovakia, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all on our side now.
The iron curtain has been pushed all the way back to Russia's borders. Ukraine will eventually find its way into the western sphere, maybe without a few eastern areas like the Crimean. But Ukraine was always going to be the hardest good-bye for Russia. If I recall correctly, the Kiev area plays a pretty important role in the formation of the Russian nation/culture/people.
This is all just the final act of a play that has been going on since the Berlin Wall fell.
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I think people under-estimate the impact of economic sanctions as well.
If the stock market drops another 10%, and the currency continues to drop, internal support - especially from the power boys - will definitely wane.
Higher interest rates (quite a bit), lower markets, a weak currency, all add up to really impacting the tepid economic recovery that they are currently clinging to.
And there is nothing like unemployment to get the people angry with the government
I think people are angry with the whole situation already. I read somewhere something like 70% of Russians opposed intervention in Ukraine and most of the Kremlin's allies, including Kazakhstan is actively petitioning the Russian government to withdraw it's troops from Ukraine.
This move is deeply unpopular and yet Russia is still resisting the withdrawal of their troops. More economic measures are going to hit them soon. I think they have a two day deadline to withdraw from Ukraine, otherwise the EU will hit Putin and Russia with a bunch of economic sanctions. I wonder how long Russia's actions will be tolerated by their own people. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...in-Crimea.html
Well it's more than that. They were just saying on CBC that Germany gets something like 30% of it's Nat Gas from Russia. Lots of minerals flowing between Russia and all these countries. Things that could grind their already weak economy to a halt and triggering more (or bigger) recessions.
This is about (among other things) Ukraine's inclusion in the EU vs the Eurasian Block. And if Russia isn't stopped, it could spread to other Eastern European nations.
The long term impacts for Germany are far greater than the cost of natural gas. Also, the pressure would be far greater on Russia than Germany - there are other options for sources for NG and energy in the short term.
Not saying they would enjoy it, but the long term costs of inaction would massively outweigh the short term costs of the sanctions
Report from Vice of the standoff we saw on Sunday at the Ukrainian base. As with most Vice videos, there is little substance here, but they seem to do a good job at putting you in the situation as opposed to most main stream news agencies that report on the situation.
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This is about (among other things) Ukraine's inclusion in the EU vs the Eurasian Block. And if Russia isn't stopped, it could spread to other Eastern European nations.
The long term impacts for Germany are far greater than the cost of natural gas. Also, the pressure would be far greater on Russia than Germany - there are other options for sources for NG and energy in the short term.
Not saying they would enjoy it, but the long term costs of inaction would massively outweigh the short term costs of the sanctions
I don't entirely disagree with you, I just think you're underestimating the stomach Germany and other EU countries would have for immediate economic problems. They had a chance to step up to the plate today and are already talking about patience.
I do agree, that long term the best thing to do would probably be side with the Ukraine and stop as much trade as possible with Russia. But we know how much current governments plan ahead nowadays. It's all about keep things as rosy as possible, get re-elected, and let the next guy clean up your mess. As well, the whole EU is horribly sensitive to economic matters right now. Whether it will help them long term or not, it is up in the air if they are willing to go through the short term pain to get there.
Interesting, I really wonder how the average Russian sees this, I suspect much the same.
I asked Pointman, what his contemporaries were saying/thinking but be never answered.
Was a bit busy fooling around with my girlfriend ;-)
Now that I sit at McDonald's before going to work, I have some time.
First, it is hard to judge the "average" take on such a polarizing issue. However, in the nutshell, following opinions exist:
1. US/NATO was driving to our borders, so we just HAD to act. If we did not act, it would be a signal to US that they can do anything they want anywhere in the world. Our actions may be illegal and all, but it was merely a response we had to make to counter US actions, which are just as illegal and dirty.
2. Why the Hell do we need Crimea? It is god forgotten land. So what if we lose the fleet presence. When it was last time it fought anyway? The move will do nothing but bring us a lot of punishment in return for keeping the fleet base and maybe grabbing some useless land. Bad choice.
Other opinions are more or less extreme in one way or another. The majority, at least from what I can tell, is divided between those two opinions, with probably more leaning towards the latter.
Last edited by Pointman; 03-03-2014 at 11:07 PM.
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Missed most of the action though as a group of Ukranian's marched on the base unarmed ignoring warning shots. Compromise was met to let 10 Ukranian's maintain the aircraft.
I was talking to someone who is Russian today and that was what he was saying, that the rightful president requested the intervention and that the government in power now is a terrorist government and Russia is moving to stabilize and protect people from the illegitimate government.
Except for that many view revolution as illegal, this is not a popular opinion. Because average Russian, being Russian, would ask, why would Russia spend its resources and take all those risks for the sake of merely protecting people in another, albeit neighboring, country when we have so much problems at home. Majority of Russians, being no naives, understands that we are pursuing our own interests - rightfully or wrongly - rather than ideallistically protecting simple people from scary illegal government.
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1. US/NATO was driving to our borders, so we just HAD to act. If we did not act, it would be a signal to US that they can do anything they want anywhere in the world. Our actions may be illegal and all, but it was merely a response we had to make to counter US actions, which are just as illegal and dirty.
Can you expand on this? I can't find much about what you're talking about
Allowing Crimea to vote to join Russia would be like letting Richmond, BC vote to join China. You can't just move a ton of people to an area and then say it's yours. If Crimea was voting for independence, it would be a different situation. This is a segment of population that was placed there by a hostile regime years ago. To allow this tactic to work to expand your territory is a dangerous precedent, and as mentioned earlier would basically allow Russia to redraw the borders in all of the former Soviet states.
I hear your point, but Crimea situation is a bit different. It was Russian until 1954, when USSR leader, ethnic Ukrainian just simply handed it over to Ukraine. Some people still remember it being Russian. Following the fall of the USSR Crimea was pushing for independence, however had to stay in Ukraine. They used to have Crimean president, however in 1995 Ukraine scrapped Crimea constitution and removed the position of Crimea president. I realize that it could set a precedent for some sort of evil plan to populate the land with your ethnic and then let them vote to join you, however this is not the case with Crimea. It is historically Russian and it is only last 20 years that it is foreign land for Russians. The only reason it is in Ukraine in the first place is the bizzare decision by USSR leader without any sort of people vote, which is still enough to be legit, but doesn't make much sense from ethnical and cultural standpoints
.
Crimea voting for independent would mean almost the same, as joining Russia, as they simply don't have resources to be truly independent and will become Russian puppet.
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Can you expand on this? I can't find much about what you're talking about
Ok, I am just explaining opinion, doesn't mean I support it.
Check out NATO expanding to the east after the fall of the USSR. The perception in Russia is that US is trying to take eastern countries out of Russian hemisphere and basically surround Russia with pro-NATO or simply NATO countries with internation to put NATO troops and NATO rockets right at our borders.
This is particularly stressed by the feel that the new government is anything, but democratic. Their first law was to ban Russian language as second official language in Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine. It is sort of like Canada.would ban.French in Quebec. Doesn't sound too democratic. They also let local billionaires to take head of regions states, which was fast labeled as oligarchy. This further emphasize the point that the coup is not about bringing democracy, but rather about bringing Ukraine more into NATO with long-term goal to put NATO forces right at Russian borders.
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Crimea will end up as a part of Russia or will stay in Ukraine. But either way, the Russian naval bases aren't going anywhere. And Putin didn't invade all of Ukraine, just the most Russian part and not coincidentally, the part that houses one of Russia's most important military installations.
Ukraine might be a little more dysfunctional now and in the near future, but was it very functional 6 months ago? Not really. Ukraine is an economic basket-case and is in need of a huge bailout... and Putin practically guaranteed that Russia will make a sizable "investment" in the Ukrainian economy under the "you break it, you bought it" terms and conditions. If Putin doesn't bail them out after invading them, he (fairly or unfairly) gets 100% of the blame for anything bad that happens in Ukraine for the foreseeable future.
So Putin gets to choose between flushing billions down the Ukrainian toilet/economy or letting it get worse and shouldering all the blame as Russia's next door neighbour goes broke and destabilizes... great choice there Vlad.
Putin's strong arm tactics haven't endeared him to the majority of Ukrainians, so in the end he has made his next door neighbour more anti-Russian than they were before. More anti-Russian and less stable... great work there Vlad.
And what will the West do? Nothing.
Not a single shot will be fired. Not a sortie will be flown. No trade war. Nothing will be done because Putin is absolutely not a threat to the West/NATO. Putin knows that Russia wouldn't stand a chance if he invaded a NATO country, so that's why he picks on not-quite western countries like Georgia and Ukraine.
Now the West/NATO trusts him even less than we did a month ago. So we'll do what we've been doing since the wall fell... we promote democracy and capitalism, and one by one, "Eastern" European countries become more and more western and less and less under Russian influence. East Germany, Poland, the Czechs, Slovakia, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all on our side now.
The iron curtain has been pushed all the way back to Russia's borders. Ukraine will eventually find its way into the western sphere, maybe without a few eastern areas like the Crimean. But Ukraine was always going to be the hardest good-bye for Russia. If I recall correctly, the Kiev area plays a pretty important role in the formation of the Russian nation/culture/people.
This is all just the final act of a play that has been going on since the Berlin Wall fell.
Not sure I agree with what I would label an optimistic view, but view well laid out and certainly plausible.
Finns are understandably freaking out a little. The idea of expansionist Russia with an unpredictable pseudo-dictator hits some kind of a nerve even with me, and I would say I'm generally quite resistant to hysteria.
I'm sure the atmosphere is even worse in many of the previous Soviet countries.
Somewhat paradoxically I think Putin has screwed over all Russians living abroad in a major way. They're already an unpopular minority pretty much everywhere, and crap like this is not going to improve the situation. Even previously there have been serious talks about for example limiting the possibility of Russians buying land from Finland etc, and the Crimean situation gives those ideas some actual credibility. Right-wing politics are on the rise anyway in Europe, and Putin just gift wrapped some extra votes for nationalists of all kind I imagine.
If the Crimean occupation is indeed as unpopular in Russia as the poll linked here says it is, this could end up being a political disaster for Putin. While people may have been ready to forgive and forget about the billions wasted in Sochi, throwing away a new pile of billions right after it is probably going to get a lot of people in Russia thinking that maybe this guy isn't really built for the modern global politics. Especially the people who's money Putin just lost. (Although money "lost" in stocks is often easily gained back later with interest, so it's a little complicated. If you're a gambler, now might be a time to buy undervalued Russian stocks.)
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I get what you're saying here but no it really wouldn't. The chinese population in Richmond is what it is largely as a result of immigration in response to Hong Kong's return to Chinese control in the 90's. Basically, that population is there because they wanted to get AWAY from Chinese control. Not all of them (actually a bunch are former Taiwanese and you can imagine how a "let's join China" vote would go with that contingent), but that's the foundation for the immigrant population in Richmond.
/tangent
Absolutely, a poor example and the Isreal one mentioned is better. The idea being you can't just settle an area and then claim it.
Even if Crimea peacefully joins Russia, you just created yourself another Northern Ireland.
