Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by driveway

While it is true that Best Player Available is a wise drafting strategy, it seems pretty inescapably clear that it's almost impossible to acquire a top-scoring center without a top-ten draft pick, whereas top-scoring wingers are more readily available throughout the draft or via trade.

good lists. I don't even think flames fans need just lists to prove your point though.

we have seen that the flames effort to go from playoff team to contender did see them bring in grit players, secondary wingers, first line wingers, top dmen, secondary dmen, through the means of draft/trade/UFA. Centers are just impossible, as they are such a sought after commodity..

with the flames finally picking as high as they are, and guys like mackinnon, lindhom, barkov, monohan as centers at the top of the food chain, sure hope the flames go that route.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

But that's part of the problem for me, next year the center position is not deep in the top 7. Sorry but the flames will be in the top 5. Can they risk it and hope that Reinhart falls into their lap? If that's the plan then they better be dafting in the top 2.

How can you know right now how the draft will turn out next year and who strong the centre position will be? At this point last year Drouin and Barkov were not perceived as elite talents and now they are. A lot of development can happen in one year for 17 year old players.

[nickerjones]

Originally Posted by driveway

Here are this year's top 20 scoring centres and their draft position.

Stamkos - 1
Crosby -1
E. Staal -2
Datsyuk - 171
Getzlaf - 19
Ribeiro - 45
Toews - 3
Backstrom - 4
Tavares - 1
Sedin - 3
Stepan - 51
Kadri - 7
Duchene - 3
Kopitar - 11
Thornton - 1
Tlusty - 13
Gagner - 6
Couture - 9
Koivu - 6
Hodgson - 10

Based on this list, it seems pretty obvious that it's very, very difficult to find a top-scoring center outside of the top 10 in the draft. Also, of the players on this list, only Thornton, Hodgson, Ribiero and Tlusty are not playing for the team they were drafted by, demonstrating that it's extremely difficult to acquire a #1 centre through trade.

Based on this, and having watched the Flames overall lack of success over the last couple of decades without that #1 I think it would be a huge, huge mistake not to draft a centre with our selection.

I won't go postal if we take Nurse. From what I understand his ceiling is up in the Pronger/Niedermayer/Chara neighbourhood, but I would really like a centre.

A lot higher odds than I thought... 30% of them were drafted outside of the top 10.

[Lanny'sDaMan]

OK correct me if I am wrong, but I thought all the teams who missed out on the playoffs are in the lotto this year. But according to Spector only the bottom 5 are in, meaning the Flames are out of contention for a top 5 pick.

Mark Spector Sports ‏@SportsnetSpec 3m
...only last 5 attend.

So is he right and I have misunderstood or is he wrong?

[PeteLFan]

Originally Posted by Lanny'sDaMan

OK correct me if I am wrong, but I thought all the teams who missed out on the playoffs are in the lotto this year. But according to Spector only the bottom 5 are in, meaning the Flames are out of contention for a top 5 pick.



So is he right and I have misunderstood or is he wrong?

Only the bottom 5 GM and Edmonton attend the draft lottery unveiling in Toronto on TSN is what he's getting at.

Everyone can win the 1st pick.

[StrykerSteve]

Monahan C 6'2 186 (or MacKinnon C 6'0 182 if they win the lottery (lol, yeah right))
Ristolainen D 6'3 203
Zykov RW 6'0 210

That's how I'm hoping it goes in the 1st round for the Flames at this point.

[Imported_Aussie]

Originally Posted by Lanny'sDaMan

OK correct me if I am wrong, but I thought all the teams who missed out on the playoffs are in the lotto this year. But according to Spector only the bottom 5 are in, meaning the Flames are out of contention for a top 5 pick.



So is he right and I have misunderstood or is he wrong?

Anyone can land in the #1, but perhaps the event only has the top 5 invited as they represent 76.8% of the chances to winning the lottery.
Flames at 6.2%

http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=91605

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

Monahan C 6'2 186 (or MacKinnon C 6'0 182 if they win the lottery (lol, yeah right))
Ristolainen D 6'3 203
Zykov RW 6'0 210

That's how I'm hoping it goes in the 1st round for the Flames at this point.

I think that would be an absolute coup to grab those 3 in this draft. Wouldn't be surprised to see Ristolainen gone in the top 10 and Zykov has a chance of going top 20 although so do a lot of other players.

[Lanny'sDaMan]

Groovy, thanks for the clarification guys. I won't bother watching the TSN Lotto show, as I would rather roto-rooter my urethra, but I will check in on this board to see where we landed.

6th over all no movement is my guess with Florida winning the lottery

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Now as a Flames fan, I can assure you I realize it's not a walk in the park grabbing a top line center. But who cares what position a player plays if they don't end up being good. It's still a million times easier building around a top line winger than a 3rd line center. If at pick 6 the scouting staff believes that a certain player will be a bigger impact player than the rest of the available draftees, that's who they need to grab regardless of position. Unless it's a goalie, if it is #### that.
.

This is exactly it. The fans are buying into the media driven hype that every player in the 1st round is an amazing prospect and that the top 10 are all "can't miss", but I sincerely doubt that the scouts and management of most teams see it that way - they know some of these guys are going to disappoint and they have to take every precaution to avoid being the team that take a dud. For TSN, THN, and even the NHL, it's in their best interests to promote this idea.

The scouts and teams know that there are varying degrees of probably of players making it or living up to their projected high water marks and no matter how close things are, they will still have to find a way to separate them. They might measure it differently and come to different conclusions, but make no mistake, they most likely do not have the players at being even. If they think that Nurse (for example) is 90% likely to be a #1 defenseman and Monahan/Lindholm are less than 50% likely to be #1 centres, then I think they have to take the defenseman.

As a side note, I would like to see how the Flames drafting has been over the years when compared to the various rankings and who the BPA was according to media sources and who we actually ended up taking.

[driveway]

Originally Posted by skudr248

^

TBH, these list's are irrelevant in trying to determine what kind of future's any player we draft will have. You would know this if you have ever played tier 1 division sports. You have to look at work ethic, drive, psychological capacity to be able to handle the amount of pressure... I've seen time and time again, playing with a few guy's that could have made it fall short

First of all, that's called an 'appeal to authority' and it's a logical fallacy. Secondly, posting those lists had nothing whatsoever to do with projecting a player's career and everything to do with asset management.

I believe it's clear that it is easier to acquire top-performing wingers outside of the draft than it is centres. Not that I'm saying it's easy, just that it is easier. Hell, we didn't draft Iginla, or Tanguay, or Cammalleri, or Huselius, or Glencross, or Bourque or any of our other wingers of any impact since ... really Theoren Fleury.

Were I sitting in the room I would point this out to management and advise them to draft a Centreman, not because I think that a particular centre is going to be substantially better than a particular winger, but because I think wingers can be found through trade and the free-agent market, centres are much harder to get that way.

[Enoch Root]

With respect to wingers vs Cs...

First of all, everyone agrees that if there is a player that is clearly superior, you take them every time, regardless of position. However, that simply isn't the case with respect to the players that are going to be available when the Flames pick.

On wingers, yes, wingers have an equal likelihood to Cs of getting a great player if you pick top 5 or 10. And if the player available were a RW, I would be fine with it. But if your 2 best prospects are LW, and you choose another LW when you have basically no Cs and no RWs, that is silly, unless that player is clearly superior (for instance, if Drouin fell to 7th and you're looking at him vs Ristalainen or something).

When the poster brought up the difficulty of getting a #1 C, I don't think they were comparing against wingers. The real issue here, is that the likelihood of getting a star D-man is definitely lower than your odds with a C. The stats over the last 20 years are pretty clear on that.

If you're picking 6th, and you're looking at Nurse vs Lindholm or Monahan, you HAVE to take the C if you are the Flames. If we already had 2 or 3 really solid C prospects, that would be different. But where the Flames are right now, they HAVE to go with the odds and take a C.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by driveway

Hell, we didn't draft Iginla, or Tanguay, or Cammalleri, or Huselius, or Glencross, or Bourque or any of our other wingers of any impact since ... really Theoren Fleury.

And the last impact center they drafted? It's not like they have been neglecting that position when it comes to drafting. The first 2 times they picked 6th overall they went for centers. Stillman was an alright pick (and I believe center when he was drafted) but no more a player you build around then the wingers you listed while Tkaczuk was a bust (injuries, sure).

And Langkow was picked before Iginla, but who would you rather have? The center or the winger?

Just because many of the top centers were picked in the top 10 ≠ mean that a center picked in the top 10 will be a top center. A good player in any position is better than a bad center. Just like I'll concede it's harder to get a center than a winger you need to concede that. So all things equal, lean towards a center. Otherwise go for the best player.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

And the last impact center they drafted? It's not like they have been neglecting that position when it comes to drafting. The first 2 times they picked 6th overall they went for centers. Stillman was an alright pick (and I believe center when he was drafted) but no more a player you build around then the wingers you listed while Tkaczuk was a bust (injuries, sure).

And Langkow was picked before Iginla, but who would you rather have? The center or the winger?

Just because many of the top centers were picked in the top 10 ≠ mean that a center picked in the top 10 will be a top center. A good player in any position is better than a bad center. Just like I'll concede it's harder to get a center than a winger you need to concede that. So all things equal, lean towards a center. Otherwise go for the best player.

Another point of interest: Iggy was listed as a centre in his draft year. As were Cammy, Tanguay, Nathan Horton, Claude Giroux & various other solid wingers over the years (& Rico Fata).

Perhaps scouts push to have their boys play some centre in their draft year, acknowledging the premium put in players who play that position, in order to inflate their value? I wonder this about Mackinnon as well, as when I watch him he strikes me as a very speedy winger/sniper-type more than a natural NHL centre.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

Another point of interest: Iggy was listed as a centre in his draft year. As were Cammy, Tanguay, Nathan Horton, Claude Giroux & various other solid wingers over the years (& Rico Fata).

Perhaps scouts push to have their boys play some centre in their draft year, acknowledging the premium put in players who play that position, in order to inflate their value? I wonder this about Mackinnon as well, as when I watch him he strikes me as a very speedy winger/sniper-type more than a natural NHL centre.

I think it is simply a case that the best players growing up typically play C.

When they get to teh NHL, they are moved to wherever they will be the most successful

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

But that's part of the problem for me, next year the center position is not deep in the top 7. Sorry but the flames will be in the top 5. Can they risk it and hope that Reinhart falls into their lap? If that's the plan then they better be dafting in the top 2.

Additionally, even though odds are we do finish bottom 2 next year, Ekblad might be the better choice anyway.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

Another point of interest: Iggy was listed as a centre in his draft year. As were Cammy, Tanguay, Nathan Horton, Claude Giroux & various other solid wingers over the years (& Rico Fata).

I edited it out but I had the Flames taking center Greg Nemisz over winger Tyler Ennis but then remembered they were both listed as centers anyways. Tanguay and Cammalleri did play some center, but I didn't think Iginla did or Fata. If Fata was listed, that's 3/3 with centers picked with the 6th overall but I thought he was just right wing. And Giroux' back at center but yeah a lot of players convert around anyways. Huberdeau's another who was listed as center but played a lot of wing and could just stay there depending on who the Panthers end up getting.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

And the last impact center they drafted? It's not like they have been neglecting that position when it comes to drafting. The first 2 times they picked 6th overall they went for centers. Stillman was an alright pick (and I believe center when he was drafted) but no more a player you build around then the wingers you listed while Tkaczuk was a bust (injuries, sure).

And Langkow was picked before Iginla, but who would you rather have? The center or the winger?

Just because many of the top centers were picked in the top 10 ≠ mean that a center picked in the top 10 will be a top center. A good player in any position is better than a bad center. Just like I'll concede it's harder to get a center than a winger you need to concede that. So all things equal, lean towards a center. Otherwise go for the best player.

Langkow was also the guy that was being built up in the couple of years before the draft as being the obvious 1st overall pick for that year. It was in the final few months before the draft that people started to question his status as a phenom and eventually he slipped to 5th overall. The funny thing is, he is still the best of the top 5 picked that year.

[Henry Fool]

I have never seen either Lindholm or Monahan play, but to anyone with any sense the choice between them is OBVIOUS. I will give my full scouting report once I've finished watching these YouTube clips.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Henry Fool

I have never seen either Lindholm or Monahan play, but to anyone with any sense the choice between them is OBVIOUS. I will give my full scouting report once I've finished watching these YouTube clips.

Yes - whichever one the Flames draft is clearly the better player!