The Drive for 30th

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This idea completely ignores the fact that teams would be motivated to tank until they got to the point of being mathematically eliminated (you would want to get there as quick as possible). All it changes is the motivation for the last few games.

The idea of teams purposely tanking really makes no sense though. Does anyone really think Tanguay or Glencross or Giordano cares where we draft? Let alone guys like Begin who are fighting for contracts for next season.

Teams "tank" because when the playoffs are no longer an option there isn't any reason for players to play through injuries and are replaced by inferior call-ups. Back-up goalies are also thrown a bone and play a lot more than they would under normal circumstances. There really is no way around this in any draft system because guys simply aren't going to kill themselves and potentially risk their careers for meaningless games.

[moon]

Originally Posted by JayP

The idea of teams purposely tanking really makes no sense though. Does anyone really think Tanguay or Glencross or Giordano cares where we draft? Let alone guys like Begin who are fighting for contracts for next season.

Teams "tank" because when the playoffs are no longer an option there isn't any reason for players to play through injuries and are replaced by inferior call-ups. Back-up goalies are also thrown a bone and play a lot more than they would under normal circumstances. There really is no way around this in any draft system because guys simply aren't going to kill themselves and potentially risk their careers for meaningless games.

I don't think Tanguay is out there trying to lose for a pick but I think his give a F meter is way down and he makes plays he wouldn't if the Flames were in 7th 1 point up on the 9th place team.

Watching Colorado on the Tanguay goal it is hard for me to believe that they would have played that the same way in Game 1 of the NHL Play-offs.

Players tank not to lose but because as you said they aren't going to kill themselves to win games that are meaningless.

Teams certainly do tank though with the moves they make.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by MissTeeks

And now Ellis is hurt:

http://cardiaccane.com/2013/04/10/wa...ellis-injured/

I don't imagine Ward will be back in time, even though he skated yesterday.

Rutherford really blew what was supposed to be a big season when he didn't pick up a goalie after Ward went down

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by neo45

Rutherford really blew what was supposed to be a big season when he didn't pick up a goalie after Ward went down

No kidding. Having brought the Staal brothers together this was a big year for the Canes and now they are sitting at 1-9-0 in their last 10 games.

The games they have left for the rest of the season are not going to be easy either. Bos, Ott, Win, Phi, TB, NYI, NYR, Pit. With how things are now I could see them lose all of those games.

Florida has some games I think they can win with Pit, NYI, NYR, NJD, Bos, NYR, Tor, TB remaining.

Avs could really help us out with their schedule: VAN, CBJ, Edm, StL, StL, Pho, Min. If they can win against the Blues they might be able to help keep our second draft pick from dropping too far. They should also be able to sneak wins against CBJ, Edm, Pho or Min as none of those teams are playing great.

[troutman]

38 points gives Calgary a 50/50 shot at 15th (three more wins out of nine games).

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...t/Calgary.html

[Komskies]

Right now we have a 67% chance of finishing bottom 3 in the league and a 15% chance of finishing 30th.

[Flamin' DBag]

Originally Posted by Komskies

Right now we have a 67% chance of finishing bottom 3 in the league and a 15% chance of finishing 30th.

To add to this, I've also the included lottery chances so that our probability of picking at each spot looks like this:

1st: 15%
2nd: 17%
3rd: 25.6%
4th: 22%
5th: 10.8%
+6th%: 8.5%

[GGG]

Tonight is really important game to lose as pheonix is one of our winnalbe games. I will die a little inside if the flames win tonight after losing to phoenix in critical games down the stretch the last 3 seasons.

It would be the hockey gods laughing at us

Even more so if the oilers somehow get the number 1 pick in the draft lottery I don't know if I will be able to watch hockey anymore.

[Goodlad]

Originally Posted by Flamin' DBag

To add to this, I've also the included lottery chances so that our probability of picking at each spot looks like this:

1st: 15%
2nd: 17%
3rd: 25.6%
4th: 22%
5th: 10.8%
+6th%: 8.5%

So nearly an 80% chance of drafting in the top 4, even after the lottery? I like those odds.

[Flamenspiel]

Well, i am going to this "must lose" game tonight with my little guy. He will probably wonder why i am so quiet! That being said, I'd like to see Sven or one of the other prospects score a goal or two.

[The Yen Man]

Not gonna lie, as shameful as it may be to cheer for Flames losses, I've found myself just as invested in how the Flames and other teams in the league do right now as much as if the Flames were fighting for a playoff spot. I'm cheering for exact opposite results, but the interest is still there. It's like I'm in the Twilight Zone.

[3 Justin 3]

Originally Posted by Wolven

No kidding. Having brought the Staal brothers together this was a big year for the Canes and now they are sitting at 1-9-0 in their last 10 games.

The games they have left for the rest of the season are not going to be easy either. Bos, Ott, Win, Phi, TB, NYI, NYR, Pit. With how things are now I could see them lose all of those games.

Florida has some games I think they can win with Pit, NYI, NYR, NJD, Bos, NYR, Tor, TB remaining.

Avs could really help us out with their schedule: VAN, CBJ, Edm, StL, StL, Pho, Min. If they can win against the Blues they might be able to help keep our second draft pick from dropping too far. They should also be able to sneak wins against CBJ, Edm, Pho or Min as none of those teams are playing great.

The Canes schedule isn't too bad. Winnipeg is inconsistent, the Islanders are inconsistent, Ottawa has fallen of a cliff, Philly is inconsistent, and then Tampa. All the teams will either light them up or be li up. At least in the West it's easier to predict wins/losses. The bottom of the East is horrible. Since all of Tampa, Florida and Carolina play each other someone is guarenteed wins, hopefully 3 point games.

[Komskies]

I'm cheering really hard for Washington to continue their torrid pace and for Winnipeg to miss the playoffs as the 9th seed.

[Canada 02]

Schedule of bottom 5 teams (current points); bold = current playoff position

Colorado (32)
Vancouver (52)
Columbus (41)
Edmonton (39)
St. Louis (48)
@ St. Louis (48)
@ Phoenix (42)
Minnesota (46)

Florida (32)
Pittsburgh (62)
@ NYI (46)
@ NYR (44)
@ New Jersey (40)
@ Boston (56)
NYR (44)
Toronto (49)
@ Tampa (36)

Calgary (32)
Phoenix (42)
@ Edmonton (39)
Minnesota (46)
Detroit (44)
Anaheim (59)
@ Minny (46)
@ Nashville (38)
@ St. Louis (48)
@ Chicago (64)

Carolina (34)
Boston (56)
@ Ottawa (46)
@ Winnipeg (44)
Philly (37)
@ Tampa (36)
NYI (46)
NYR (44)
@ Pittsburgh (62)

Tampa (36)
@ Washington (46)
@ Buffalo (38)
@ Winnipeg (44)
@ Montreal (57)
Carolina (34)
Toronto (49)
@ Boston (56)
Florida (32)

[Canada 02]

Colorado has a pretty easy schedule; only 4 playoff teams, and only two on the road

Florida probably has the toughest schedule; 6 playoff teams and 5 on the road

Calgary is also pretty tough with 6 playoff opponents, and 5 road games. However, two of the playoff and road games finish the season - will Chicago and St. Louis even try on the eve of the playoffs? The flip side is Phoenix is just 1 pt out of the playoffs, and should push hard tonight

Carolina has 5 playoff opponents and 4 road games, but the way they are playing, they may only have a shot at Philly and Tampa

Tampa has the 2nd easiest schedule imo; just 4 playoff teams, but 5 on the road

[Loyal and True]

[Spinach]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Not gonna lie, as shameful as it may be to cheer for Flames losses, I've found myself just as invested in how the Flames and other teams in the league do right now as much as if the Flames were fighting for a playoff spot. I'm cheering for exact opposite results, but the interest is still there. It's like I'm in the Twilight Zone.

Yeah, hoping other crap teams win while the Flames don't hurt their own draft position is weird, and yet strangely engrossing. I guess it's something like the burning trainwreck effect.

All the same, it's not something I want to do again (although next year's not looking too good at this point, either).

[bucksmasher]

Good to see St Luis lose a few and drop that 1st pick a little

[PlayfulGenius]

The Flames likely only want 3 more points in their last 8 games to finish in 30th overall... 5 or less points hopefully gets them a top 3 pick... I was truthfully upset when Gio scored the OT winner... Maybe I should just stop watching for a bit, this feels weird.

[Jbo]

Cheering for losses should never feel right.