Provincial Election Poll/Prediction Thread

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

So seeing as this might be a really tight election, what happens if (God forbid) there is a tie tonight? Who becomes premier? Is it Redford by default?

I would expect that, as the currently governing party, the Lieutenant Governor would give Redford the first opportunity to form a government. If she declines or is unable, then Smith would be offered. If they both can't, we get another month of this nonsense on a new election.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Yeah_Baby

So basically we should just do away with First Past the Post

I agree in general, but it would have to be part of a package of reforms that ensures the government isn't permanently beholden to the tiny parties with no support.

The way the landscape is reshaping itself right now, there is no chance of a majority government in a PR based system. Absent other changes, you are ensuring that the Liberals and/or NDP could dictate policy against the wishes of, well, 75% of the population.

[old-fart]

I'll go with a small WR majority.

WR - 44
PC - 38
NDP- 3
LIB - 2

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

I agree in general, but it would have to be part of a package of reforms that ensures the government isn't permanently beholden to the tiny parties with no support.

The way the landscape is reshaping itself right now, there is no chance of a majority government in a PR based system. Absent other changes, you are ensuring that the Liberals and/or NDP could dictate policy against the wishes of, well, 75% of the population.

Not to hijack the thread, but you are right. You get a government that is more representative of the electorate, however the parties have to work together, which is challenging at best.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

So seeing as this might be a really tight election, what happens if (God forbid) there is a tie tonight? Who becomes premier? Is it Redford by default?

There is also the potential for a constitutional crisis out of this as well. If, suppose, Wildrose wins a minority government but is quickly brought down by the other three on a confidence matter, Smith would almost certainly ask the LG to disolve the legislature and call a new election. If the LG refuses that request and instead asks Redford to form government (or vice versa), then you would effectively have the Queen's representative putting themselves over Alberta's elected leader.

Much like the failed coalition bid federally, the LG would have to tread carefully if party power grabs come at the expense of the public.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Let us hope it doesn't come to the LG selecting a premier. That would be pretty tragic.

[mykalberta]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

There is also the potential for a constitutional crisis out of this as well. If, suppose, Wildrose wins a minority government but is quickly brought down by the other three on a confidence matter, Smith would almost certainly ask the LG to disolve the legislature and call a new election. If the LG refuses that request and instead asks Redford to form government (or vice versa), then you would effectively have the Queen's representative putting themselves over Alberta's elected leader.

Much like the failed coalition bid federally, the LG would have to tread carefully if party power grabs come at the expense of the public.

Isnt thats how its supposed to work in a minority gov? If a group can form majority then they get to govern?

If you arent able to get a majority but have the most seats in a minority I dont think that gives that party any right to expect to govern.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

Isnt thats how its supposed to work in a minority gov? If a group can form majority then they get to govern?

If you arent able to get a majority but have the most seats in a minority I dont think that gives that party any right to expect to govern.

The issue comes down to the LG overruling the Premier. The ties to the monarchy are traditional only at this point, and for the Queen's representative to overrule the province's elected leader would put London ahead of Edmonton. That wouldn't go over well at all. Especially if the opposition made a concerted effort to bring down the government without even the pretense of trying to make the Legislature work.

[Jacks]

You guys realize there is an election discussion thread right?

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The issue comes down to the LG overruling the Premier. The ties to the monarchy are traditional only at this point, and for the Queen's representative to overrule the province's elected leader would put London ahead of Edmonton.

If the Queen made Kate Middleton the premier, I'm all for it. Don't mind seeing her in the papers everyday.

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by Jacks

You guys realize there is an election discussion thread right?

Thread police spotted!

I'm assuming since the mods saw fit to equip this thread with a poll that they are ok with it existing. Besides this thread gives those of us not active with the in-depth conversation of the other thread a chance to throw our predictions out there.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Besides this thread gives those of us not active with the in-depth conversation of the other thread a chance to throw our predictions out there.

Well seeing that the thread is for predictions ....

[getbak]

I think it will be a slim Wildrose majority, with the Liberals and NDP being virtually wiped off the map.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Well seeing that the thread is for predictions ....

In my defence, I was trying to mostly argue on what would happen if some of these predictions come to pass, as opposed to general election discussion.

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by getbak

I think it will be a slim Wildrose majority, with the Liberals and NDP being virtually wiped off the map.

Only in Alberta can you defeat a Conservative government by creating a party that was even further right.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

There are a lot where the PC just barely won and any riding where the Liberals got over 30% last election imo is in play for them as they are highly unlikely to lose votes to the PC or WRA.

I don't know about that. How many people voted Liberal because they were voting against the PCs last time around, and how many of those have shifted their no-PC vote to the Wildrose this time around?

Also, in the past, a PC majority was a foregone conclusion, which I believe made it easier for a strong non-PC candidate to win a seat because as a voter, you could know that your MLA would be able to bring his own good ideas to the Legislature without worrying about his party holding any real power.

In a tight race, like we have now, I think people are more likely to vote for the party they want to govern rather than the candidate they most want to represent them.


Of course, I'm no expert, so I could be completely wrong.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Yeah_Baby

Only in Alberta can you defeat a Conservative government by creating a party that was even further right.

I once read that an Alberta government has only ever been defeated by a party to the right of them. This seems to be true, as our governments have gone (iirc) Liberal-->Socreds-->PCs, and then potentially wildrose, which is certainly considered to the "right" of the PCs.

So your post could read. "In Alberta you can only defeat a Conservative government by creating a parties even further right"

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I do wonder if the great weather today won't have a negative effect on turnout, especially amongst the younger crowd. I know more than a few of my friends who'd rather hit the patio after work than the voting booth.

The younger crowd doesn't have a great voting record anyways (I know my 25 yo step-daughter can't be bothered to vote), so I doubt the weather will make a significant impact... and what impact it does make will more likely affect parties other than WR. Not sure whether the youth vote (what there is of it) votes for the PC party either.

[Yeah_Baby]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I once read that an Alberta government has only ever been defeated by a party to the right of them. This seems to be true, as our governments have gone (iirc) Liberal-->Socreds-->PCs, and then potentially wildrose, which is certainly considered to the "right" of the PCs.

So your post could read. "In Alberta you can only defeat a Conservative government by creating a parties even further right"

Regardless though of what happens tonight, I see the years of 4 decade long dynasties as over.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I once read that an Alberta government has only ever been defeated by a party to the right of them. This seems to be true, as our governments have gone (iirc) Liberal-->Socreds-->PCs, and then potentially wildrose, which is certainly considered to the "right" of the PCs.

So your post could read. "In Alberta you can only defeat a Conservative government by creating a parties even further right"

Liberal --> UFA --> SoCreds --> PC

UFA was an odd case. Inherently socialist as a cooperative, but goverened fairly conservatively (had to meet the needs of the population), but when the depression and the Brownlee affair wiped out the party, most jumped to the CCF, a forerunner of the NDP.

/sorry Jacks