Canadian Dollar At $0.9639 USD

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Putting a hockey twist on this thread, if you're the Flames do you hedge now? I don't see the dollar getting any higher and for them to be able to do their business at par all season could be a huge advantage.

[Claeren]

I don't see the Canadian dollar getting stronger, but will the American dollar get weaker??

It is not like the Canadian dollar is about to drop 20c either....




Claeren.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

Putting a hockey twist on this thread, if you're the Flames do you hedge now? I don't see the dollar getting any higher and for them to be able to do their business at par all season could be a huge advantage.

So when do Canadian hockey players playing for Canadian teams start requesting contracts in Canadian dollars? If I was a Canadian living in Canada, I wouldn't want a contract that lost value because of problems in the US.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by Claeren

I don't see the Canadian dollar getting stronger, but will the American dollar get weaker??

It is not like the Canadian dollar is about to drop 20c either....




Claeren.

I think that if you look at the Canadian buck you will see that it is the poor performance of the American buck that has caused the gains, not the positive performance of the Canadian buck itself. The US buck will rebound and reverse the slide it took against other currencies, and when it does, the Canadian buck will tumble. Take a look at the charts of the performance of the two currencies versus others. In 2003, the American buck was worth close to $1.07 in Euro dollars, and now it's worth 70 cents. Conversely, in 2003 the Canadian buck was worth ~67 cents in Euro dollars, and today its worth ~70 cents. The gains are because of the poor performance of the US buck. When it rebounds against the Euro, the Canadian buck will slide backwards again.

[Sylvanfan]

Well the Canadian dollar has gained strength vs. most currencies because Canada is a big resource nation and many of those things have high prices right now. But in comparison to the U.S. dollar...Lanny is right most of that has to do with the US dollar losing ground. If the U.S. dollar had been keeping pace with the Euro our dollar would trade at 80-85 cents U.S. which IMO is where it should be in order for Canada to have a healthy and balanced economy.

Any where in the Phoenix area where you can get a decent rental property for about $200k U.S? On one hand I think...buy a house in Hawaii, I'll never get another chance in my life to do so for this cheap..But than Phoenix is much easier to get to and is likely a place that I might stand a chance to get some use out of a place.

[Claeren]

Originally Posted by Lanny_MacDonald

I think that if you look at the Canadian buck you will see that it is the poor performance of the American buck that has caused the gains, not the positive performance of the Canadian buck itself. The US buck will rebound and reverse the slide it took against other currencies, and when it does, the Canadian buck will tumble. Take a look at the charts of the performance of the two currencies versus others. In 2003, the American buck was worth close to $1.07 in Euro dollars, and now it's worth 70 cents. Conversely, in 2003 the Canadian buck was worth ~67 cents in Euro dollars, and today its worth ~70 cents. The gains are because of the poor performance of the US buck. When it rebounds against the Euro, the Canadian buck will slide backwards again.

Except that traditionally the Canadian dollar and the American dollar have moved together (sometimes at different rates of movement, but more or less in the same direction at the same time) up until recently.

The fact that the Canadian dollar has moved up on the American dollar despite weakness in Canada's primary export market would indicate that a hot American economy that was consuming even more resources would just make the Canadian dollar even hotter!

The American economy is in potentially a lot more trouble than many are making it out to be.

And the Canadian economy has never been in better shape at the fundamental level. Expanded market demand for primary exports, little threat of Quebec seperation, balanced budgets, lower and lower debt, net exporter of energy, more competitive tax rates and better city infrastructure than many decaying American cities, etc.

Lower productivity in Canada is the primary threat to the dollar but wise use of the higher dollar should help close that gap too.

I agree the Canadian dollar will likely drop a bit again, but i would be shocked to see it fall out of a very tight range of trading (0.93-1.07 or even 0.95-1.02) compared to the USD and has more chances for upside than downside IMO.


Major policy changes are needed in the United States post Bush-nightmare to fix things....



Claeren.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Lanny_MacDonald

I think that if you look at the Canadian buck you will see that it is the poor performance of the American buck that has caused the gains, not the positive performance of the Canadian buck itself. The US buck will rebound and reverse the slide it took against other currencies, and when it does, the Canadian buck will tumble. Take a look at the charts of the performance of the two currencies versus others. In 2003, the American buck was worth close to $1.07 in Euro dollars, and now it's worth 70 cents. Conversely, in 2003 the Canadian buck was worth ~67 cents in Euro dollars, and today its worth ~70 cents. The gains are because of the poor performance of the US buck. When it rebounds against the Euro, the Canadian buck will slide backwards again.

The problem is, there are fundamental reasons behind the slide of the American dollar. Mainly the huge trade and budget deficits. Until those fundamentals are corrected, the American dollar will continue to slide.

It is my belief that they let the dollar slide intentionally to finance the Iraq war. Which may not have been a terrible strategy, as the dollar was overvalued at the time, and some correction would help the American Economy anyway. What better way to finance a marginally popular war than to have the people pay for it by taking away 30% of their wealth without them realizing!

The problem is the war lasted too long, and the effects snowballed, and they had to keep interest rates high to fight off inflation caused by the slipping dollar. And now that the relatively steep advance of interest rates has started to cause a collapse in the financial markets, they realized they had to scale back interest rates a bit, and further let the dollar slide. That whole snowball could continue for a bit.

Electing a president that would get out of the money pit of Iraq would be a great start to turning the fundamentals around and is probably what is needed to get the dollar going up again.

[FlamesAddiction]

Is this even a story in the U.S.? Is the average person even aware that the Canadian and US dollars are on par? (In fact the Canadian dollar was slightly above the U.S. dollar the last time I looked...)

This is all they talked about on CBC news yesterday.

[Claeren]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Is this even a story in the U.S.? Is the average person even aware that the Canadian and US dollars are on par? (In fact the Canadian dollar was slightly above the U.S. dollar the last time I looked...)

This is all they talked about on CBC news yesterday.

The NY Times had a number of great articles on it yesterday. (Very pessimistic about the American economy)


I think though that the slide versus the Euro has garnered more of the press, as much because EU nations are nervous about the increased pressures on their economies and the threat of global recession as due to the USD side of the slide itself.


Claeren.

[Sainters7]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Is this even a story in the U.S.? Is the average person even aware that the Canadian and US dollars are on par? (In fact the Canadian dollar was slightly above the U.S. dollar the last time I looked...)

This is all they talked about on CBC news yesterday.

We must have looked in two different places. I just checked two seconds ago and they have it listed at 99 cents U.S.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

We must have looked in two different places. I just checked two seconds ago and they have it listed at 99 cents U.S.

I said "the last time I looked"... which was last night.

[Sainters7]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I said "the last time I looked"... which was last night.

Haha ahh, gotcha. I just assumed "He's on his computer now...so "last time he looked" cant be any more than 1 hour ago". btw Frankly Im not even sure what its at right now. The first place I looked said "99.05 cents US", and the 2nd one said "99.9 cents US). I need closure!!

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by Claeren

I don't see the Canadian dollar getting stronger, but will the American dollar get weaker??

It is not like the Canadian dollar is about to drop 20c either....

I think the Canadian dollar has some more upside. It's just an educated guess (these things are unknowable), but I expect we'll see $1.05. From there, I don't know but it could go up a bit more but I'd review it at that time.

I kinda like this Phoenix house idea. Gotta go talk to the wife now. See what she says.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Is this even a story in the U.S.? Is the average person even aware that the Canadian and US dollars are on par? (In fact the Canadian dollar was slightly above the U.S. dollar the last time I looked...)

You kidding me? Not sure the average American even knows whether we're north or south of them. Have you watched the program Talking to Americans? Those folks will believe anything. Rick Mercer had them convinced of the most ridiculous stuff.

[habernac]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Well the Canadian dollar has gained strength vs. most currencies because Canada is a big resource nation and many of those things have high prices right now. But in comparison to the U.S. dollar...Lanny is right most of that has to do with the US dollar losing ground. If the U.S. dollar had been keeping pace with the Euro our dollar would trade at 80-85 cents U.S. which IMO is where it should be in order for Canada to have a healthy and balanced economy.

Any where in the Phoenix area where you can get a decent rental property for about $200k U.S? On one hand I think...buy a house in Hawaii, I'll never get another chance in my life to do so for this cheap..But than Phoenix is much easier to get to and is likely a place that I might stand a chance to get some use out of a place.

the problem is that Hawaii real estate is ridiculous. A million bucks there gets you a shack.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by Lanny_MacDonald

Depends where. Where are you interested or what are your expectations? If you want to be in the burbs, you can get a ton. What size are you looking for and what would the use be? If its a second home, or a vacation home, I'd recommend looking at something that could be a solid rental property. Let me know a few more details and I can fill in more details.

Yes. Works the same as in Canada.

Could you get a two-bedroom house or condo (~1,000 square feet) for 300-350K? Phoenix or one of the 'burbs, maybe Glendale? I've been there and don't know all the 'burbs, but there is Avondale and Tempe (which is near the airport, which would be good). There is Scottsdale, too, but that's probably very pricy.

I'd want something that could be rented out until I decide if I want to move there, either part or full time.

What's available?

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

We must have looked in two different places. I just checked two seconds ago and they have it listed at 99 cents U.S.

Currently at 0.9991, been bouncing back and forth on both sides of parity all day. Got up to 1.0060 and as low as 0.9950.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

Could you get a two-bedroom house or condo (~1,000 square feet) for 300-350K? Phoenix or one of the 'burbs, maybe Glendale? I've been there and don't know all the 'burbs, but there is Avondale and Tempe (which is near the airport, which would be good). There is Scottsdale, too, but that's probably very pricy.

I'd want something that could be rented out until I decide if I want to move there, either part or full time.

What's available?

I would recommend staying away from the west side to be honest with you. It's a growing area, but its also got a lot of gang problems. One of my best friends lives in Glendale and he's dying to get out because of the bangers. I would also stay away from Scottsdale. Way too expensive and you don't get the bang for your buck.

I would recommend the east valley. Mesa and Tempe are both aging and have money problems as municipalities, so the potential for big tax increases is likely. Chandler and Gilbert are nice and there are some good deals in there if you know where to look. I'd stay away from those two. Apache Junction has a bad reputation, but they are cleaning it up and the views are spectacular in certain areas. Queen Creek and Gold Canyon are out there, but both offer great bang for the buck. I would recommend something that can take advantage of the US60, which was just expanded to six lanes, and the loop 202 which is almost complete. The infrastructure in the east valley is probably the best in all of Phoenix.

As far as what you can get for what, you could get a 1300-1400 sqft 2 bedroom (with potential third or den), two bath house, in a gated community for ~$220-225K in either Gold Canyon, Queen Creek or Apache Junction. There are great values if you know where to look.

[Kev]

Me and a buddy were looking at homes in Casa Grande, where his dad lives.

http://realestate.yahoo.com/Arizona/...athroomLow=2.0

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by Kev

Me and a buddy were looking at homes in Casa Grande, where his dad lives.

http://realestate.yahoo.com/Arizona/...athroomLow=2.0

Casa Grande is an interesting spot. Its in the I10 corridor between Tucson and Phoenix and has some great values. I work with a guy who makes the commute from there every day and he loves it. Casa Grande is a little ethnic (read Hispanic) which can case the Gringos some communication problems at times.

Another interesting place that is up and coming is Maricopa. It's like Casa Grande, and down the I10 corridor, but they are building like crazy out there. Builders are giving good incentives out there to move inventory they have already built. The only problem with that, is I10. It is gridlock twice a day and the speed on that road doesn't match the number of lanes for it (only three in most spots and down to two for long stretches).