2016 NHL Draft

[Poe969]

Jebus H. Frak, who the heck are you to go around saying anyone's opinion is wrong. Is there a statistical chance the Flames draft out of the top 10? Yes, there is. It may be a small chance but there is a chance so the statement is not wrong. Saying you think the Flames can make the playoffs is wrong because they've been mathematically eliminated. Get your head out of your donkey and stop telling anyone that their opinion is wrong.

I just feel that the way things are going, the Flames are going to continue to play well and other teams are going to tank.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

Taking a look at schedules down the home stretch I think we finish in 6th spot prior to the lottery. I see the turtle race ending up like this:

Toronto
Vancouver
Edmonton
Winnipeg
Columbus
Calgary
Buffalo
Montreal

I ran a draft sim 100 times and we only finished top three 22 times. On average we drafted 9th, getting knocked three full spots! Not surprisingly the Oilers won the draft an astounding 29 times and drafted top three 62 times. I hope our luck in the real lottery is better and Edmonton gets knocked down three full slots.

Not picking on you specifically, but what's the point of running it 100 times? You're only going to arrive roughly at the published odds which is expected. The Flames at 6th should get roughly 7-8% chance on all three lotteries for 21-24% which is where you arrived.

I do see the do it once a day thing for kicks though.

I'll do it now ... ...

Damn Calgary down one spot and picks 7th.

[Point Blank]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Jebus H. Frak, who the heck are you to go around saying anyone's opinion is wrong. Is there a statistical chance the Flames draft out of the top 10? Yes, there is. It may be a small chance but there is a chance so the statement is not wrong. Saying you think the Flames can make the playoffs is wrong because they've been mathematically eliminated. Get your head out of your donkey and stop telling anyone that their opinion is wrong.

I just feel that the way things are going, the Flames are going to continue to play well and other teams are going to tank.

Opinions can be wrong, you're wrong, just admit it.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Poe969

Jebus H. Frak, who the heck are you to go around saying anyone's opinion is wrong. Is there a statistical chance the Flames draft out of the top 10? Yes, there is. It may be a small chance but there is a chance so the statement is not wrong. Saying you think the Flames can make the playoffs is wrong because they've been mathematically eliminated. Get your head out of your donkey and stop telling anyone that their opinion is wrong.

I just feel that the way things are going, the Flames are going to continue to play well and other teams are going to tank.

You said you think the Flames will win 4 of their 6 remaining games. We play the Ducks, Kings x 2, Wild, Canucks and Oilers.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html
If we go 4-2: we'd have a 97% chance of finishing bottom 8
If we go 4-1-1: we'd have a 90% chance of finishing bottom 8

I'm not sure you understand the English language if you think your statement is not wrong.

"I think the idea of drafting in the top 10 is starting to become more and more slim"

The idea of drafting in the top 10 is a near certainty. It's not becoming more and more slim. What is slim is the chance of drafting outside the top 10. It's so slim we can pretty much rule it out as being completely unrealistic, that's how slim it is.

I don't know why you continue to defend this statement which you carelessly threw out because the statement is misleading and wrong.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Not picking on you specifically, but what's the point of running it 100 times? You're only going to arrive roughly at the published odds which is expected. The Flames at 6th should get roughly 7-8% chance on all three lotteries for 21-24% which is where you arrived.

I do see the do it once a day thing for kicks though.

I'll do it now ... ...

Damn Calgary down one spot and picks 7th.

Two reasons. Boredom and to test the tool. I looked at one over on one of the basement blogger sites and it was jacked up to pick only Canadian teams in the top three. Obvious click bait, but it made me think of how "random" these things can be. Calgary could really use some good luck here for a change.

[Five-hole]

One plus is that because the 4-12 guys are apparently pretty close, it should be possible to move up a few spots if Treliving is so inclined and get the guy we really want.

(Or drop down and grab an additional asset and get a guy we like anyway, leading to much wringing of hands here on CP).

[Frequitude]

Ok Poe, you are right. It is a factually correct statement that the Flames have a non-zero chance of picking outside the top 10. But surely you must understand that when you say this:

Originally Posted by Poe969

Jebus H. Frak, who the heck are you to go around saying anyone's opinion is wrong. Is there a statistical chance the Flames draft out of the top 10? Yes, there is. It may be a small chance but there is a chance so the statement is not wrong. Saying you think the Flames can make the playoffs is wrong because they've been mathematically eliminated. Get your head out of your donkey and stop telling anyone that their opinion is wrong.

Everyone immediately thinks of this:



Can we all put this silly argument to rest now.

[nik-]

I want a Finn dammit. I don't care about "tanking" or "not tanking", it just sucks to have a year this ####ty and not get one of those top three in the end

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

You said you think the Flames will win 4 of their 6 remaining games. We play the Ducks, Kings x 2, Wild, Canucks and Oilers.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html
If we go 4-2: we'd have a 97% chance of finishing bottom 8
If we go 4-1-1: we'd have a 90% chance of finishing bottom 8

I'm not sure you understand the English language if you think your statement is not wrong.

"I think the idea of drafting in the top 10 is starting to become more and more slim"

The idea of drafting in the top 10 is a near certainty. It's not becoming more and more slim. What is slim is the chance of drafting outside the top 10. It's so slim we can pretty much rule it out as being completely unrealistic, that's how slim it is.

I don't know why you continue to defend this statement which you carelessly threw out because the statement is misleading and wrong.

Even if we finish 6-0, this is our expected draft pick probabilities:

[dissentowner]

The rest of our schedule smells like 2-4 to me. We will beat the Nucks and Grease, lose the other 4.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

Two reasons. Boredom and to test the tool. I looked at one over on one of the basement blogger sites and it was jacked up to pick only Canadian teams in the top three. Obvious click bait, but it made me think of how "random" these things can be. Calgary could really use some good luck here for a change.

The new three tiers really sets up for some pretty epic television.

Duthie at the podium ... selecting 14th is Detroit (and with that it's one less team that can move past Calgary ... selecting 13th is Colorado (another bullet dodged) ... selecting 12th is Carolina (3 down) ... selecting 11th is New Jersey (4 down)

then it happens ...

selecting 10th is Arizona (what? wait? where is Ottawa? Then you realize they have one of the top three and the Flames have only 2 left to win. But the Oilers and Canucks are less likely too, the torn feelings!)

9th is Montreal (good Calgary isn't heading down 3 spots!)

8th is Buffalo (ditto!)

7th is Winnipeg (that's it, Calgary won one of the lotteries OMFG!)

Too much fun.

[CliffFletcher]

6th is the dividing line for me. I'll be happy with Matthews, one of the Finns, Dubois, Chychrun, or Tkachuk. I'll be meh with Nylander and the rest.

[red sky]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The new three tiers really sets up for some pretty epic television.

Duthie at the podium ... selecting 14th is Detroit (and with that it's one less team that can move past Calgary ... selecting 13th is Colorado (another bullet dodged) ... selecting 12th is Carolina (3 down) ... selecting 11th is New Jersey (4 down)

then it happens ...

selecting 10th is Arizona (what? wait? where is Ottawa? Then you realize they have one of the top three and the Flames have only 2 left to win. But the Oilers and Canucks are less likely too, the torn feelings!)

9th is Montreal (good Calgary isn't heading down 3 spots!)

8th is Buffalo (ditto!)

7th is Winnipeg (that's it, Calgary won one of the lotteries OMFG!)

Too much fun.

That will be exciting but replace Calgary with Edmonton and follow up OMFG with "they won again?!" Better to prepare ourselves for this, we all know the outcome.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The new three tiers really sets up for some pretty epic television.

Duthie at the podium ... selecting 14th is Detroit (and with that it's one less team that can move past Calgary ... selecting 13th is Colorado (another bullet dodged) ... selecting 12th is Carolina (3 down) ... selecting 11th is New Jersey (4 down)

then it happens ...

selecting 10th is Arizona (what? wait? where is Ottawa? Then you realize they have one of the top three and the Flames have only 2 left to win. But the Oilers and Canucks are less likely too, the torn feelings!)

9th is Montreal (good Calgary isn't heading down 3 spots!)

8th is Buffalo (ditto!)

7th is Winnipeg (that's it, Calgary won one of the lotteries OMFG!)

Too much fun.

I have actually been looking forward to the lottery for this reason only. They can go right down to the bottom 2 teams left and announce the winner and it will be exciting for the fans of those respective franchises, and at least interesting to non-fans. Well, unless all 3 lottery picks are won by before the final 2 -3 spots anyways. I would probably tune-in to watch it even if Calgary was in the playoffs. I have watched one single lottery draw, and that was enough for me. This time, it would actually be interesting I think.

[djsFlames]

How great it'd be great if the end standings are

30. Edmonton
29. Toronto
28. Winnipeg
27. Vancouver
26. Columbus
25. Calgary

And post-lottery

1. Toronto
2. Calgary
3. Columbus
4. Edmonton
5. Winnipeg
6. Vancouver

Or some similar variation of Edmonton (and Vancouver) getting completely shafted.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by nik-

I want a Finn dammit. I don't care about "tanking" or "not tanking", it just sucks to have a year this ####ty and not get one of those top three in the end

Meh, that was a usual phrase before the 2013 and 2014 drafts too.

[DJones]

I would absolutely love it if by some miracle the three bottom teams all got pushed out to 4th.

Would probably seriously make teams reconsider tanking.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=810726

A machine is loaded with 14 balls numbered 1 through 14. 4 balls are drawn.
There are 1001 combinations. 1 combination (11, 12, 13 14) is considered a redraw. The rest are assigned to the teams beforehand and made public based on the lottery percentages. That's if they use the same system as last year which they probably will. Under the new system after the first team is drawn they would have to do a redraw for the 2nd or 3rd pick if they draw that team again.

I think they will need to tweak it a bit as after the initial draw all the combinations will be different as depending on who wins as their percentage is proportionally divided to the remaining teams. They would almost need 13 different combination lists for the second round based on who won the first draw. The third draw is where it starts to get messy if they keep the lists.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I think they will need to tweak it a bit as after the initial draw all the combinations will be different as depending on who wins as their percentage is proportionally divided to the remaining teams. They would almost need 13 different combination lists for the second round based on who won the first draw. The third draw is where it starts to get messy if they keep the lists.

No, the combos assigned to the teams that win the first two draws are just considered dead-combos like the 11-12-13-14 combo on the first draw.

It may require a few draws to actually get three unique winners, but they'll eventually get them.

[StrykerSteve]

There's no doubt in my mind that Edmonton will win the first overall pick.