View Poll Results: Assuming a term of 7 years what will Gaudreau's AAV end up being?
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6.500 - 6.625
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9 |
1.28% |
6.625 - 6.750
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5 |
0.71% |
6.750 - 6.875
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21 |
2.99% |
6.875 - 7.000
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59 |
8.40% |
7.000 - 7.125
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89 |
12.68% |
7.125 - 7.250
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85 |
12.11% |
7.250 - 7.375
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112 |
15.95% |
7.375 - 7.500
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102 |
14.53% |
7.500 - 7.625
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71 |
10.11% |
7.625 - 7.750
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38 |
5.41% |
7.750 - 7.875
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39 |
5.56% |
7.875 - 8.000
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33 |
4.70% |
8.000 - 8.125
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21 |
2.99% |
8.125 - 8.250
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6 |
0.85% |
8.250 - 8.375
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1 |
0.14% |
8.375 - 8.500
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11 |
1.57% |
09-21-2016, 09:10 PM
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#2021
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
It's simple. MacKinnon has more years to develop and improve than Gaudreau has. Gaudreau is fast approaching the age at which forwards' offensive production tends to peak. MacKinnon won't be there for a few years yet.
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You are assuming that their development curves are identical. Kinda silly when one guy has been consistently trending up and the other down.
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09-21-2016, 09:11 PM
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#2022
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Halifax, NS
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Quote:
Originally Posted by transplant99
I suppose that could be the case but is it in ANY way probable? No. If any of the speculation is to be believed, the Flames are 6.5 per at the very least
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Really? Do you have sources for your speculation? Also, is $6.5M not considered a lowball offer? Especially if we're talking about an eight year deal.
Quote:
Fair market value...thats an interesting term because apparently it means different things to different people. That's been debated ad nauseum.
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Agreed. I'm not here to debate what is actual fair market value. I think there are some comparables that give us a general ballpark, however that's tangental. My main issue was that it's unfair to create a narrative that suggests the Flames have already offered a fair deal and it's simply Gaudreau and his ego (or agent) that are holding out for an unreasonably high offer.
I have no inside information to suggest which side (if any) is trying to strong arm the other. There's obviously at least some point of contention between the two sides, whether that is regarding term, AAV, NTC/NMC, etc. But to suggest anything more based on nothing is... well, it's literally the definition of speculation.
Quote:
There is no way that the cap is an issue right now so thats a non-starter. With the club allowed to go 10% over the ceiling until the season begins they would have to be offering more than 15 million per for it to come into play.
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The is a big difference between what the team can do and what they should do.
By signing Gaudreau to a contract that surpasses the cap before trading away players necessary to become cap compliant, they would put themselves in a position of weakness when it comes to negotiating with other teams. Other teams would know that Calgary needs to become compliant and will be required to make drastic moves to get there.
The smart decision would be to free up the money to sign Gaudreau before you sign him.
However, I doubt that hypothetical situation is reality. The Flames have a little over $7.96M in cap space and I seriously doubt Gaudreau will take all of that.
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09-21-2016, 09:13 PM
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#2023
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm
100% I believe McKimmon can score 30 goals and hit 80 points. He's already done 24 and 63. And he's a center, a much more important position.
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He's been playing primarily wing. And I'll take that bet all day long. 100-1 odds since you're 100% certain? Seems pretty bold of you seeing as how he barely broke 50 points last year.
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09-21-2016, 09:15 PM
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#2024
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Lifetime Suspension
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
You are assuming that their development curves are identical. Kinda silly when one guy has been consistently trending up and the other down.
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Guuuh?
Yeah, Gaudreau has consistently trended up between the two seasons he's had. MacKimmon exploded into the NHL, had a sophomore slump, then rebounded ast year with 21 goals and 52 points.
It's so disingenuous to say once guy has consistently gone up when he only has two seasons to compare, and equally silly to say the other guy has trended down when he's went down only once, in his 2nd year. Especially when the second year slump is so common, they have a name for it. The sophomore slump is so common they have a name for it.
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09-21-2016, 09:16 PM
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#2025
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
Disagree. He's made it abundantly clear that he's an elite player. Puts more public pressure on the team to get him signed. A hold out after the clinic he's put on would look pretty bad.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
If you don't want a superstar, then why not trade him?
Do you really think a deal at 7.5-8 vs 6.75-7.25 is going to make any real difference in our ability to retain talent? If it's the difference between 8 years and 3, then just sign him long term and be done with it. He's very obviously worth it.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
Is there any doubt that he is an elite offensive player? All star winger for years to come?
If you seriously doubt that, then you're not paying attention.
So you would rather trade him then have him at 8M?
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So it looks like Gross and company have decided its time to raise the stakes and start making threats.
Disappointing. But not surprising.
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09-21-2016, 09:17 PM
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#2026
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: The toilet of Alberta : Edmonton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988
I can't believe people seriously think Gaudreau is deserving of an 8x8. Wow!
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But he is. The only reason he will not get that much $ is because he's an RFA that can't be offer-sheeted. Contract status definitely works in managements favor in this case, but if there was some magic loophole where he was a UFA at his current age and production levels, you have to believe he would get at least 8 million per. Easily. The fact that he's an RFA will knock that number back a bit, but I hope he still gets the full term of 8 years. With the current landscape of the league paying more for potential, than in years passed, Gaudreau is definitely deserving of 8 million and the only reason he won't get it now is because he has little leverage.
__________________
"Illusions Michael, tricks are something a wh*re does for money ....... or cocaine"
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09-21-2016, 09:17 PM
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#2027
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damn onions
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Wow... this debate is still going on eh? Interesting.
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09-21-2016, 09:18 PM
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#2028
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm
For 8 years? You have to think about it. The Flames are fortunate to have Bennett and Tkachuk in the system. Those two go away and I'd be begging them to sign Gaudreau for that contract now. There is a cap though, there is other big contracts to sign. We hand Gaudreau eight million per season, that brings up the congrats those guys sign.
These things reverberate down the line. "Oh well it's only overpaying Gaudreau by half a million.." well that means the next hot shot young player wants a similar or closer deal, and that half turns into 1, into 1.5 etc. Gaudreau is a special fish, but he isn't the only fish, even special one, in the sea for the Flames right now.
Thankfully the Flames don't have to trade him, then can sit and wait. One day, one week, one month, into Christmas, into the New Year.
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8M is not overpayment for an 80 point 22 year old.
Just because the Flames can essentially hold him hostage doesn't mean he's worth less. What do you think he'd get in arbitration?
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09-21-2016, 09:21 PM
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#2029
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Lifetime Suspension
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
8M is not overpayment for an 80 point 22 year old.
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What year did he get 80 points again?
Quote:
Just because the Flames can essentially hold him hostage doesn't mean he's worth less. What do you think he'd get in arbitration?
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I don't know, maybe he should have filed for arbitration.
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09-21-2016, 09:21 PM
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#2030
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I believe in the Pony Power
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He does not have arbitration rights. Therefore it is irrelevant.
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09-21-2016, 09:21 PM
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#2031
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Franchise Player
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shame he didn't get 80 points as a 22 year old
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09-21-2016, 09:26 PM
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#2032
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Fearmongerer
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Wondering when # became hashtag and not a number sign.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JerryUnderscore
Really? Do you have sources for your speculation? Also, is $6.5M not considered a lowball offer? Especially if we're talking about an eight year deal.
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Sources say Gaudreau’s agent, Lewis Gross, is asking for a payday in the $8-million range while the Flames are pushing to pay between what Sean Monahan signed for ($6.375 million annual average value) and what captain Mark Giordano makes (a team-high $6.75 million AAV).
http://www.calgarysun.com/2016/09/08...-as-15-million
Quote:
Agreed. I'm not here to debate what is actual fair market value. I think there are some comparables that give us a general ballpark, however that's tangental. My main issue was that it's unfair to create a narrative that suggests the Flames have already offered a fair deal and it's simply Gaudreau and his ego (or agent) that are holding out for an unreasonably high offer.
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I don't think its ego thats holding things back, merely an agent who is trying to get as much as he can for the player. Thats fine as that's his job. But the Flames have an offer out to him and to believe otherwise is just being obtuse. Whether you agree its fair or not goes back to what i said...fair is a subjective term.
Quote:
I have no inside information to suggest which side (if any) is trying to strong arm the other. There's obviously at least some point of contention between the two sides, whether that is regarding term, AAV, NTC/NMC, etc. But to suggest anything more based on nothing is... well, it's literally the definition of speculation.
The is a big difference between what the team can do and what they should do.
By signing Gaudreau to a contract that surpasses the cap before trading away players necessary to become cap compliant, they would put themselves in a position of weakness when it comes to negotiating with other teams. Other teams would know that Calgary needs to become compliant and will be required to make drastic moves to get there.
The smart decision would be to free up the money to sign Gaudreau before you sign him.
However, I doubt that hypothetical situation is reality. The Flames have a little over $7.96M in cap space and I seriously doubt Gaudreau will take all of that.
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Yup all true. Doesnt change what I said though.
Also as an aside, I think its quite likely that Smid is LTIR still which will add another 3 million to the cap space a day into the season.
Last edited by transplant99; 09-21-2016 at 09:29 PM.
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09-21-2016, 09:27 PM
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#2033
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JiriHrdina
He does not have arbitration rights. Therefore it is irrelevant.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm
What year did he get 80 points again?
I don't know, maybe he should have filed for arbitration. 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
shame he didn't get 80 points as a 22 year old
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You guys coordinate that? Impressive you can all miss the same point so easily.
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09-21-2016, 09:27 PM
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#2034
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
8M is not overpayment for an 80 point 22 year old.
Just because the Flames can essentially hold him hostage doesn't mean he's worth less. What do you think he'd get in arbitration?
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Pretty simplistic statement. Taylor Hall scored 80 points in 75 games.
They should have paid him 8M a year by your reasoning.
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09-21-2016, 09:28 PM
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#2035
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
8M is not overpayment for an 80 point 22 year old.
Just because the Flames can essentially hold him hostage doesn't mean he's worth less. What do you think he'd get in arbitration?
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Name another that got that much at 22.
And this isn't about worth. It's about contract negotiation. Worth is a factor, so are contractual rights under the CBA. Is McDavid worth only ELC max?
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09-21-2016, 09:28 PM
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#2036
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Lifetime Suspension
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
You guys coordinate that? Impressive you can all miss the same point so easily.
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Missed the point like Gaudreau missed eighty points.
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09-21-2016, 09:29 PM
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#2037
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: CGY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
8M is not overpayment for an 80 point 22 year old.
Just because the Flames can essentially hold him hostage doesn't mean he's worth less. What do you think he'd get in arbitration?
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He wouldn't get $8M in arbitration that is clear as day. Not even a true ppg season and he has never scored 80pts, hasn't even played 200 games no one would hand him $8M.
Personally I think Johnny is worth it I would rather pay him $10M per than trade him but at the end of the day the Flames hold the cards. Does Johnny want to be paid $65M or does he take $50M and allow the Flames to fit in extensions for Bennett, Tkachuk, Brodie, a goalie and try and win a cup?
Flames absolutely need to budge off this supposed "Gio cap" that is speculated. I think Francis worded it perfectly that the Flames who have an owner that is among the hardliners in CBA negotiations set a precedent by giving a player with no arb rights, 5 years of rfa status, and 2 years in the league a record breaking contract.
I do think something will be done around $7-7.5 for 7-8 years
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09-21-2016, 09:30 PM
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#2038
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames
Pretty simplistic statement. Taylor Hall scored 80 points in 75 games.
They should have paid him 8M a year by your reasoning.
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Well seeing as that happened years ago and he signed a shorter term contract . . .
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09-21-2016, 09:30 PM
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#2039
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaudreauvertime
You guys coordinate that? Impressive you can all miss the same point so easily.
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The fact he didn't get 80 points is just a response to the constant reference to Gaudreau as an 80 point man when he actually got 78. Just like people here get annoyed at Hall being referred to as a 30 goal scorer.
As for arbitration, it is irrelevant. You might as well ask "what would if he was a UFA". Well, what would he get if he was a rookie? It's all meaningless. He isn't a UFA, he isn't a rookie, and he has no arbitration rights.
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09-21-2016, 09:30 PM
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#2040
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In the Sin Bin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GioforPM
Name another that got that much at 22.
And this isn't about worth. It's about contract negotiation. Worth is a factor, so are contractual rights under the CBA. Is McDavid worth only ELC max?
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I was responding to someone who didn't think Gaudreau was worth 8M.
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