[Itse]

I think I figured out why there's such a difference of opinion whether we're properly rebuilding or not.

People who say "we're clearly rebuilding, just look at the moves Conroy has been making" absolutely have a point. When you look at the "trade balance" of the picks moved...

1st round +3
2nd round +1
3rd round +3
5th round +2
6th round +1
7th round -1

That's 9 extra picks our way, or a whole extra draft year and then some. I was frankly surprised it was that many. Clear case, right? So why are so many, including me, still questioning whether we're in a rebuild? I think the answer is pretty simple.

Despite all those incoming picks, we have only drafted a total of 3 extra players under current management. In other words, despite all the selling, we haven't been stocking up on prospects relative to other teams because of the shortage of picks Treliving left us with. Thanks dumb***!

This is however further emphasized when you look at the players we've brought in with the trades:

Daniil Miromanov (27 at time of acquisition, I think)
Morgan Frost (26)
Yegor Sharangovich (25)
Kevin Bahl (25)
Joel Farabee (25)
Artem Grushnikov (21)
Hunter Brzustewicz (20)

We're getting younger for sure, but those mostly aren't really prospect ages. No teenagers and only two players under 25. Trading for a couple of extra prospects is well within the limits of what any team could end up with while doing business as usual, as are moves to get younger.

For comparison, Anaheim drafted 7 extra players in the last 3 seasons, and they already had 1 extra pick every season for the last 4 seasons... And I didn't bother checking for traded players. Chicago picked 9 extra times up to Bedard, and then 1 extra guy two years after that, and they still have an additional 1st and two 2nds next season. Montreal has drafted 13 extra times since 2021. Etc, I think you can see the point. Those are rebuild numbers. 3 extra picks is to me not a rebuild, yet.

I still don't really care whether other people want to call this a rebuild, but I came up with two definitions of a rebuild that are both completely valid, yet different:

1. Moving out a significant number of veterans for prospects and picks.

2. Collecting significantly more/better prospects than league average (through both trades and drafting).


These look similar, but as it turns out, if you start in a deep hole, you can make a lot of moves towards picks and prospects without actually ending up ahead of league averages in a meaningful way... And this is where the Flames are right now. We did the thing in the 1st definition, but didn't end up in the situation described in 2nd definition. Lots of moves made, but still lacking the kind of prospect pool or pick stockpile that would make us look like we're rebuilding instead of just being s*** and kinda young.

As for the future, the optimist would say "okay, so we've made the moves that got us out of the hole, so the next moves will start putting some distance between us and the not-rebuilding teams".

Personally, whether it's a rational fear or not, I'm afraid the organization just took a little time to re-stock and get a little younger, and will very soon go back to business as usual, trying to make the playoffs every year as always. I kind of don't really think they would be that f*****g dumb, but I've also been burned too many times to have any faith in the organization.

(For the record: I'm not generally at all opposed to trading for players like Frost, Farabee and Sharangovich in our situation. I am slightly opposed to the contract Conny gave Sharangovich though, but ultimately with our cap situation it should end up being a complete non-issue.)