Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
Armchair scouts should be ignored. None of us have a goddamn clue how these 18 year old players will develop. It’s a crap shoot after the top 25.
|
This might've been true 20 years ago, but these days it’s actually pretty easy to get a rough idea of how players will develop.
Analysts like Bader produce projections, and when those projections are strong, they tend to be right more often than not. NHLe is a real tool—it clearly correlates with future production, even when looked at retroactively.
Many of us here were annoyed when Stromgren was picked over Stankoven, and for good reason. It was pretty clear Stankoven had more upside. The same story is playing out again: Maceo Phillips went just a few spots ahead of Cameron Schmidt in the draft. I personally guarantee that Phillips will project to score more points—whether they play junior or any other level. That’s not a hot take, it’s just the reality the data points to. And of course, I realize that there's more to player values than just production.